Quote from Eight:
I got very good at coding up backtests but I quit backtesting and went to screen trading about three months ago and I advanced the state of my trading by huge leaps, backtesting is too sterile of an environment, it is bypassing the fantastic computer between our ears for some little feeble tool to take over... I heartily recommend going entirely to screen trading occasionally to get a fresh view on things...
The exact same thing happened to me. Discretionary day trading for a few weeks revolutionized my understanding of the data that I look at on charts.
One more thing happened in my progress...did this happen to you yet?
I took my understanding and built an automated trading system. It was far from perfect or user-friendly back then but it worked. I ran it on Forex with very small position size at first.
Now when you REALLY trade an automated strategy using real money, it also changes everything about how you understand the markets and automated trading. It was whole new "paradygm shift" in understanding like when I did screen trading like you.
I'll share the biggest realizations from that. 1. The strategy when live trading must build and maintain confidence that it's "working properly" during draw downs. 2. It must handle money management in such a way as to have some kind of regular returns. That can be daily, weekly, monthly, whatever you pick.
The reason for these is that when my automated system went into any kind of drawdown--losing "real" money--it always forced me to reevaluate the strategy to make sure there wasn't some kind of error in the code.
So I would run the strategy historically offline on the same data to compare with the live running system.
If it gave different results that scared me into pulling the live one and spending time to debug. Sometimes there really were bugs.
Using tick data made a huge difference there also because it means my historical tests started matching almost perfectly with the real time system.
Another problem was that sometimes during the draw down it showed a market situation or condition that I failed to notice during historical testing.
Even when it matched the historical comparison it forced a reexamination into the entire strategy.
So now, when developing any new strategy, I find it necessary to carefully examine "every single trade" to understand why it lost money and how it profited. Of course, I start with the biggest losses and work backwards for efficiency.
The other problem (2 above) is that you need to define your goal. When running in real life, real human time is passing. Calendar days, or weeks. And what seemed like good results on paper me be very boring or uninteresting in real life.
Like, for example, let's say your system has periods where it goes a few weeks without trading. That may like fine or be unnoticed on a 5 year chart.
But when you're going day by day watching the market make all kinds of (allbeit small) gyrations while your strategy sits on the sidelines--not a single trade--it gets very annoying.
My strategies now always make at least a few traded every single day.
And my platform gives me daily, weekly, and month stats that also highlight any days with zero trades or the biggest winning days and losing days, etc.
My strategies now return consistent profit every single month even it's very small and over 80% of every week. The maximum loss per day, per week, and month is set as well as the daily, weekly, and monthly profit target.
I personally feel there's no excuse for going an entire month without making money trading. There's so many opportunities during any given month--that would be leaving money a lot of money on the table.
Hey, if you made X in a month, week, or day which is more than your average months why not take it and run so as to avoid losing it back during that period. Hey, remember, in the future that might be your grocery money if you quit your day job or your monthly payroll if you run a trading firm.
In short, after really trading automated it forces you to begin to look at historical testing from a more "human" approach to how it will serve your goals in real life and real human time, day after day.
Wayne