Throw them out! Throw them out!
- Thread starter nitro
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May be that is the positive of these elections bickering:
everything is put under scrutinny.
Wall Street and Kochs Fuel Most Expensive U.S. Senate Race Ever
...The record spending shows that both parties see Pennsylvania as pivotal in the all-out battle for the Senate. Of the 34 open seats this year, it’s one of six that are considered a statistical toss-up, according to RealClearPolitics polling averages. On top of that, Toomey’s place on the Senate committees that oversee banks and tax policy raises the stakes for the financial industry and other corporations...
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ochs-fuel-most-expensive-u-s-senate-race-ever
...The record spending shows that both parties see Pennsylvania as pivotal in the all-out battle for the Senate. Of the 34 open seats this year, it’s one of six that are considered a statistical toss-up, according to RealClearPolitics polling averages. On top of that, Toomey’s place on the Senate committees that oversee banks and tax policy raises the stakes for the financial industry and other corporations...
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ochs-fuel-most-expensive-u-s-senate-race-ever
We are close to throwing several of them out and gaining a Senate majority.
The races that could flip the Senate
Story highlights
But a new wildcard has entered the mix: Wisconsin -- a seat long thought to be a Democratic lock that has now become a lot more uncertain.
To win the Senate, Democrats need to pick up four seats if Hillary Clinton takes the White House; five if Donald Trump becomes the next president, since the vice president breaks a 50-50 tie. And no matter which party controls the chamber, the party in power will almost certainly have a very small majority -- a handful of seats, at most -- a recipe for gridlock in the new Congress.
Here's CNN's latest breakdown of the race for the Senate:
Republican-held seat in Illinois. Verdict: Likely to flip
GOP Sen. Mark Kirk was always a long shot, running in a blue state in a presidential year. And all year long, he's been running behind his Democratic foe, Rep. Tammy Duckworth. But when he took a dig at Duckworth's ethnic background at a debate last week, the wheels seemed to have fallen off his campaign. Kirk winning now would be seen as the biggest upset of the cycle.
Republican-held seat in Wisconsin. Verdict: Leans Democrat
Speaking of upsets, Republican Sen. Ron Johnson is trying to pull one off himself, taking out the man who had long been a heavy favorite in the race, former Democratic Sen. Russ Feingold.
Johnson has shifted his campaign tactics with a mix of positive ads about himself and attacks against Feingold, and seems to have caught Democrats off guard. Buoyed by an influx of outside spending, and Trump outspending Clinton on TV in the state, Johnson has suddenly found himself down by just 1 point, according to a new Marquette University poll. Still, both sides acknowledge that Feingold is the favorite heading into Election Day, especially given that no GOP candidate has won a Wisconsin Senate seat in a presidential year since 1980.
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell's super PAC plans to invest $2.2 million in the state as well to boost Johnson, it announced Thursday.
Republican seat in Pennsylvania. Verdict: Leans Democrat
Polls over the last couple weeks have consistently shown Democrat Katie McGinty holding a slim lead, including a CNN-ORC survey from Wednesday reporting that Republican Sen. Pat Toomey is now down five points. Toomey has been working the Philadelphia suburbs hard to appeal to moderate, middle-of-the-road voters -- namely women -- to help power him to a victory. But the national headwinds may end up being too tough for Toomey to overcome.
Republican-held seat in Indiana. Verdict: Toss-up
Evan Bayh's private schedule details ties with donors, lobbyists
Former Sen. Evan Bayh had long been viewed as the heavy favorite when he made a surprise entrance into the race to win back his old seat against Republican Rep. Todd Young. But Bayh has been badly damaged by a series of stories about his post-Senate life, his inactive voter status and damaging revelations about meetings with donors and lobbyists during his time in the Senate. And now polls show the race in a dead heat, and Bayh stumbling to the finish line. Republicans are feeling bullish about Indiana
Republican-held seat in Missouri. Verdict: Toss-up
Unlike in Indiana, Democrats are making the case that Republican Sen. Roy Blunt is the true Washington insider with deep ties to lobbyists, and has lost touch with his state, banking on the fresh-faced, 35-year-old Jason Kander to present himself as the outsider. Republicans privately say that Kander is perhaps the best Democratic recruit in the country -- and that Blunt has struggled to define him, prompting GOP fears that the veteran could cost them a critical seat. But Blunt is relying heavily on the fact that Missouri is still a red state and Trump is likely to win there, hoping to ride the GOP nominee's coattails to victory.
Republican-held seat in North Carolina. Verdict: Toss-up
Richard Burr quips about gun owners shooting Hillary Clinton
Sen. Richard Burr's candidacy has been a constant cause of stress for GOP leaders. They don't think he has worked hard enough to define his Democratic opponent, Deborah Ross, or make the case that he should be reelected. More money has started to pour into the state to define Ross as an out-of-touch liberal elite, picking apart her record working as a top attorney for the North Carolina chapter of the liberal American Civil Liberties Union.
Burr is also struggling because Trump is underperforming against Clinton, who leads there. And new scrutiny over Burr's private comments at a fundraiser last weekend -- suggesting some gun owners may want to incite violence towards Clinton -- has put him on the defensive in the closing days of the campaign.
Democratic-held seat in Nevada. Verdict: Toss-up
Nevada's race has been remarkably tight for the duration of the campaign. Polls have either shown Republican Rep. Joe Heck with a lead within the margin of error, or shown Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto with a slight lead.
But Heck has had a rough few weeks in his handling of Trump, getting negative scrutiny from the right for his disavowal of the GOP nominee -- but also saying privately and publicly he's not sure for whom he would vote. Democrats are banking on Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid's political machine to help turn out Democratic voters. But the GOP believes Reid's unpopularity will be a stain on Masto's chances.
Republican seat in New Hampshire. Verdict: Toss-up
The race between Republican Sen. Kelly Ayotte and Democratic Gov. Maggie Hassan has swung back-and-forth for months, and Election Day is bound to be a true nail-biter. Ayotte had a rough October, with a poor debate performance where she called Trump a role model -- only to take it back -- and then being bombarded by an influx of Democratic money across the airwaves.
But Republicans have struck back, dropping major dollars across the airwaves in recent days, helping to fortify Ayotte's position, making the race the truest of toss-ups.
Republican seat in Florida. Verdict: Leans Republican
Sen. Marco Rubio heads into Election Day as a favorite against Democratic Rep. Patrick Murphy, buoyed by GOP money, name recognition and winning over Latino voters in Miami-Dade County. But Florida is the ultimate swing state -- and no statewide race there can be taken for granted. Murphy has benefited by a renewed push by the top of the ticket -- and by President Barack Obama -- hoping to ride Hillary Clinton's coattails into office, even though Democratic groups have mostly avoided spending in the expensive state.
A CNN-ORC poll out Wednesday showed Rubio clinging to a one-point lead, but most operatives on both sides believe the GOP senator is in a more comfortable position.
Republican seats unlikely to flip:
Ohio seat held by Rob Portman.
Arizona seat held by John McCain.
Iowa seat held by Chuck Grassley.
http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/03/politics/senate-races-flip-2016/index.html
The races that could flip the Senate
Story highlights
- Democrats are looking to pick up GOP seats in Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and North Carolina
- Republicans hope to capture the seat of outgoing Democratic Leader Harry Reid in Nevada
But a new wildcard has entered the mix: Wisconsin -- a seat long thought to be a Democratic lock that has now become a lot more uncertain.
To win the Senate, Democrats need to pick up four seats if Hillary Clinton takes the White House; five if Donald Trump becomes the next president, since the vice president breaks a 50-50 tie. And no matter which party controls the chamber, the party in power will almost certainly have a very small majority -- a handful of seats, at most -- a recipe for gridlock in the new Congress.
Here's CNN's latest breakdown of the race for the Senate:
Republican-held seat in Illinois. Verdict: Likely to flip
GOP Sen. Mark Kirk was always a long shot, running in a blue state in a presidential year. And all year long, he's been running behind his Democratic foe, Rep. Tammy Duckworth. But when he took a dig at Duckworth's ethnic background at a debate last week, the wheels seemed to have fallen off his campaign. Kirk winning now would be seen as the biggest upset of the cycle.
Republican-held seat in Wisconsin. Verdict: Leans Democrat
Speaking of upsets, Republican Sen. Ron Johnson is trying to pull one off himself, taking out the man who had long been a heavy favorite in the race, former Democratic Sen. Russ Feingold.
Johnson has shifted his campaign tactics with a mix of positive ads about himself and attacks against Feingold, and seems to have caught Democrats off guard. Buoyed by an influx of outside spending, and Trump outspending Clinton on TV in the state, Johnson has suddenly found himself down by just 1 point, according to a new Marquette University poll. Still, both sides acknowledge that Feingold is the favorite heading into Election Day, especially given that no GOP candidate has won a Wisconsin Senate seat in a presidential year since 1980.
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell's super PAC plans to invest $2.2 million in the state as well to boost Johnson, it announced Thursday.
Republican seat in Pennsylvania. Verdict: Leans Democrat
Polls over the last couple weeks have consistently shown Democrat Katie McGinty holding a slim lead, including a CNN-ORC survey from Wednesday reporting that Republican Sen. Pat Toomey is now down five points. Toomey has been working the Philadelphia suburbs hard to appeal to moderate, middle-of-the-road voters -- namely women -- to help power him to a victory. But the national headwinds may end up being too tough for Toomey to overcome.
Republican-held seat in Indiana. Verdict: Toss-up
Evan Bayh's private schedule details ties with donors, lobbyists
Former Sen. Evan Bayh had long been viewed as the heavy favorite when he made a surprise entrance into the race to win back his old seat against Republican Rep. Todd Young. But Bayh has been badly damaged by a series of stories about his post-Senate life, his inactive voter status and damaging revelations about meetings with donors and lobbyists during his time in the Senate. And now polls show the race in a dead heat, and Bayh stumbling to the finish line. Republicans are feeling bullish about Indiana
Republican-held seat in Missouri. Verdict: Toss-up
Unlike in Indiana, Democrats are making the case that Republican Sen. Roy Blunt is the true Washington insider with deep ties to lobbyists, and has lost touch with his state, banking on the fresh-faced, 35-year-old Jason Kander to present himself as the outsider. Republicans privately say that Kander is perhaps the best Democratic recruit in the country -- and that Blunt has struggled to define him, prompting GOP fears that the veteran could cost them a critical seat. But Blunt is relying heavily on the fact that Missouri is still a red state and Trump is likely to win there, hoping to ride the GOP nominee's coattails to victory.
Republican-held seat in North Carolina. Verdict: Toss-up
Richard Burr quips about gun owners shooting Hillary Clinton
Sen. Richard Burr's candidacy has been a constant cause of stress for GOP leaders. They don't think he has worked hard enough to define his Democratic opponent, Deborah Ross, or make the case that he should be reelected. More money has started to pour into the state to define Ross as an out-of-touch liberal elite, picking apart her record working as a top attorney for the North Carolina chapter of the liberal American Civil Liberties Union.
Burr is also struggling because Trump is underperforming against Clinton, who leads there. And new scrutiny over Burr's private comments at a fundraiser last weekend -- suggesting some gun owners may want to incite violence towards Clinton -- has put him on the defensive in the closing days of the campaign.
Democratic-held seat in Nevada. Verdict: Toss-up
Nevada's race has been remarkably tight for the duration of the campaign. Polls have either shown Republican Rep. Joe Heck with a lead within the margin of error, or shown Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto with a slight lead.
But Heck has had a rough few weeks in his handling of Trump, getting negative scrutiny from the right for his disavowal of the GOP nominee -- but also saying privately and publicly he's not sure for whom he would vote. Democrats are banking on Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid's political machine to help turn out Democratic voters. But the GOP believes Reid's unpopularity will be a stain on Masto's chances.
Republican seat in New Hampshire. Verdict: Toss-up
The race between Republican Sen. Kelly Ayotte and Democratic Gov. Maggie Hassan has swung back-and-forth for months, and Election Day is bound to be a true nail-biter. Ayotte had a rough October, with a poor debate performance where she called Trump a role model -- only to take it back -- and then being bombarded by an influx of Democratic money across the airwaves.
But Republicans have struck back, dropping major dollars across the airwaves in recent days, helping to fortify Ayotte's position, making the race the truest of toss-ups.
Republican seat in Florida. Verdict: Leans Republican
Sen. Marco Rubio heads into Election Day as a favorite against Democratic Rep. Patrick Murphy, buoyed by GOP money, name recognition and winning over Latino voters in Miami-Dade County. But Florida is the ultimate swing state -- and no statewide race there can be taken for granted. Murphy has benefited by a renewed push by the top of the ticket -- and by President Barack Obama -- hoping to ride Hillary Clinton's coattails into office, even though Democratic groups have mostly avoided spending in the expensive state.
A CNN-ORC poll out Wednesday showed Rubio clinging to a one-point lead, but most operatives on both sides believe the GOP senator is in a more comfortable position.
Republican seats unlikely to flip:
Ohio seat held by Rob Portman.
Arizona seat held by John McCain.
Iowa seat held by Chuck Grassley.
http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/03/politics/senate-races-flip-2016/index.html
Some people were saying that Trump's campain would destroy the Republican party.
That's something to pounder.
That's something to pounder.
Sticky situation there for Rubio. Trump is more popular in florida than he is. It illustrates what happens when a pol abandons the traditional rules in the heat of battle. A time-honored rule for primary season is not to make things personal or engage in too harsh name-calling. The reason is what goes around, comes around. You may need the help of someone you called a con man. oops.
Those rules didn't apply to Trump however. What did he care? it's not like he was going to run for Senate if he didn't win. He was like the Conquistadores. They landed in mexico, they burned their f'ing ships. No going home boys. And his attacks were devastating, not least because voters had never heard a pol called "lyin' Ted" or "little Marco" or even worse, "low energy." They didn't just leave a mark, they destroyed accomplished men's careers.
Even worse, the guys who did try to fight back ended up hurting themselves more. Marco looks very hypocritical now and Cruz is likely finished as a national candidate.
We need more momentum
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/11/04/polls-tighten-to-within-margin-of-error-in-key-races.html
The Top Nine Senate Races to Watch on Election Day
Leigh Ann Caldwell
49 Mins AgoNBC NEWS
COMMENTS
Virginia ads paint Donald Trump as threat to animals
Supreme Court delays inmate Tommy Arthur's seventh execution date
Penn State fined record $2.4 million in Jerry Sandusky case
The GOP currently holds the majority with 54 seats, meaning that Democrats need a net gain of four seats to win control of the upper chamber for the next two years if Hillary Clinton wins the presidency or a net gain of five should Donald Trump prevail.
Voters are indicating that they want a congressional check on the president. While Clinton led by 4 points in the final pre-election NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, 51 percent of likely voters said they were more likely to support a Republican congressional candidate who would serve as a check on a potential Clinton presidency. Just 40 percent said they would be more likely to support a Democratic congressional candidate who would support Clinton's agenda. (Still, when voters were asked if they prefer a Congress led by Democrats or by Republicans, Clinton's party retained an advantage, 47 percent to 44 percent.)
Last-minute cash infusions by the parties and by super PACs are keeping Senate races competitive and outcomes uncertain.
With Election Day just two days away, here are nine races that could determine U.S. Senate control:
1). Illinois: Republican Sen. Mark Kirk v Democrat Tammy Duckworth
Kirk was elected to the Senate to fill the remaining days of Sen. Barack Obama's seat in 2010 while simultaneously winning his own six-year term. Kirk could very well be a one-term Senator, however, as polls in this race show Kirk is seven points behind challenger Duckworth.
Kirk has taken some moderate positions to better represent his Democratic-leaning state, including his support of gun control legislation and a vote on Obama's Supreme Court nominee Merrick Garland. He has also separated himself from Trump, being one of the first to say he would not support the nominee of his party, even running anti-Trump television ads, including this Spanish-language one.
But Kirk's controversial remarks have eclipsed his positions. He recently called President Barack Obama a "drug dealer in chief," but the most egregious comment was less than two weeks before Election Day when he said during a debate that Duckworth's parents came to the U.S. to "serve" George Washington. Kirk apologized for racially offensive remarks
While the race is more a referendum on Kirk, Duckworth, his challenger, is running on her record. As an Iraq War vet who lost both her legs while piloting a Black Hawk helicopter, she spent much of her post-war career on veterans issues, eventually winning election to the House in 2012.
Duckworth was endorsed by the right-leaning Chicago Tribune editorial board, citing Kirk's health as a reason. Kirk suffered a stroke in 2012 and in an attempt to dispel any concerns from voters, he released a letter from his doctor recently that said he has made "a full cognitive recovery."
2). Wisconsin: Republican Sen. Ron Johnson v Democratic former Sen. Russ Feingold
This is a re-match from 2010 when upstart Johnson beat 18-year incumbent Feingold in the tea party wave of 2010. Six years later, the match-up between the conservative Johnson and the liberal Feingold, is much closer than anticipated.
Early in the race, Feingold dominated the polls, resulting in the national super PACs and the respective campaign committees to stop spending money there. But the race has become nearly tied in the final weeks.
Attempting to walk a very fine line, Johnson has not defended Trump but hasn't denounced him either; he supports him but won't endorse him. At a debate earlier this month Johnson said he agreed with the nominee on issues like border security but that he won't "defend the indefensible."
Feingold is attempting to paint Johnson as a rigid conservative who is too extreme for Wisconsin while Johnson says that Feingold has spent too much time in Washington and will say anything to get elected.
3). Pennsylvania: Republican Sen. Pat Toomey v Democrat Katie McGinty
Toomey is another Republican senator who was elected in the wave of 2010 at risk of losing his re-election. He is considered to be a moderate - and popular - Republican who was endorsed by Gabby Giffords pro-gun regulation group because of his support of gun laws. He even released an ad in the final weekend before Election Day featuring President Barack Obama praising Toomey for his support on gun control.
But Pennsylvania is a presidential battleground state and that race is having an impact on Toomey, who is down two points, according to the Real Clear Politics polling average. He has refused to say if he plans to vote for Trump, saying he "remains unpersuaded," giving fodder to his challenger, McGinty, who says that Toomey doesn't have the "courage" to stand up to Trump. Toomey has responded that he's running his own race but vows to "stand up" to Trump in Washington.
McGinty, a former Secretary of the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection, has enjoyed consistent campaigning of presidential nominee Hillary Clinton and President Barack Obama who have campaigned with her in the presidential battle ground.
4). Indiana: Republican Rep. Todd Young v Democrat Evan Bayh
In this open seat to replace retiring Republican Sen. Dan Coats, Democrat Bayh is trying to win his seat back. He retired from the Senate in 2011 and with more than $10 million left over in his campaign account, Democrats recruited him to return to the Senate.
But Bayh, also a former governor and son of former senator Birch Bayh, has not been able to coast to what was expected to be an easy victory because of his 20-point lead earlier this year. But his challenger, Rep. Todd Young and allies have effectively painted him as a disconnected politician who has spent hardly any time in Indiana since he left the Senate six years ago and is more interested in making money and pleasing corporate interests than serving the people of Indiana.
Young, a former marine, has received enthusiastic support from conservative groups who have spent readily to help him. The IndyStar tabulated the amount spent on the Senate race by the candidates and outside groups has been more than $30 million through September, with Young receiving the slight advantage with the help from the main Senate Republican super PAC Senate Leadership Fund's $9 million worth of advertising in the state.
Young has endorsed Trump but threatened to renege on his support after the Access Hollywood video was leaked. But Young has not yet withdrawn his support in the conservative state that is likely to support Trump on November 8.
5). Missouri: Sen. Roy Blunt v Democrat Jason Kander
The Missouri Senate race was not expected to be close until Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump has made the political environment difficult for down-ballot candidates. Simultaneously, however, Kander has proven to be a strong campaigner, resulting in the tightening of polls in recent weeks with Blunt seeing only a one point advantage, making this one of the races that Democrats could win.
Blunt, who rose through the ranks in the House of Representatives and quickly became a part of leadership in his first term in the Senate, has endorsed Trump but has tried to run as an independent separate from the bombastic nominee. As the Kansas City Star notes, Kander has not focused on Blunt's support of Trump because Kander might need some of Trump's supporters if he wants to beat Blunt in the conservative state.
And Kander has had one of the most effective ads this campaign cycle. The telegenic 35-year old Missouri secretary of state assembles a rifle blindfolded, while saying, "Sen. Bunt has been attacking me on guns." He continues to detail his role in the U.S. Army and his positions on guns.
While Kander has sought to tie Blunt to Washington, and Blunt is trying to tie Kander to Hillary Clinton. What could be a damaging closing argument ad by the Senate Leadership Fund in the red state ties Kander to Clinton. "One Hillary in Washington would be bad enough," the narrator says.
6). Nevada: Rep. Joe Heck v Catherine Cortez Masto
Heck and Cortez Masto are running to fill Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid's open seat.
Cortez Masto, Sen. Reid's hand-picked successor and former Nevada attorney general, would be the first Latina to serve in the Senate if she won. She is aggressively trying to tie Heck to Trump, hoping that the large Latino population backs her.
Heck, a doctor and brigadier general in the U.S. Army, was first elected to Congress in 2010, in the Republican wave, but has been struggling to balance the shadow of Trump. He withdrew his endorsement of Trump after the Access Hollywood tape but Democrats are taking advantage of a leaked tape of Heck saying at a fundraiser, "I want to support him, I really do." Heck continues to say, according to CNN, that Trump "has got to change his tone."
Heck was consistently leading in the polls until mid-October when Cortez Masto is nearly tied, but showing the volatility of the race, Heck has a four point advantage according to a RCP average in the final week. A tremendous amount of money has been spent in the race with Democrats spending at least $37 million and Republicans at least $35 million in television advertisements alone - and that doesn't count the last two weeks of the election.
7). North Carolina: Republican Sen. Richard Burr v Deborah Ross
Of all the Republicans running in competitive Senate races this year, Burr is the only one who wasn't elected in 2010. He's served in the Senate for two terms and is on the Senate Intelligence committee. He's trying to fend off Ross, a former state representative and former head of the ACLU in the state, in a race that has unexpectedly become close.
Burr, who easily won his last re-election in 2010, didn't start campaigning in earnest until the Fall, forcing the Republican Party and allied groups to spend money to bolster him there as Ross started to close.
As for the Trump impact, Burr has not come to Trump's defense after the Access Hollywood tape was released but said he will vote for him. Burr is, however, trying to tie Ross to Clinton, especially after the new laptop was found 11 days before Election Day. Ross has stood by Clinton and has received the benefit of a large cadre of big-name Clinton surrogates campaigning for her in the Tar Heel State, including President Barack Obama, First Lady Michelle Obama and Sen. Elizabeth Warren.
The polls show the race tied, with the latest Real Clear Politics polling average showing Burr with 1 point advantage.
8). New Hampshire: Republican Sen. Kelly Ayotte v Gov. Maggie Hassan
Incumbent Sen. Ayotte, who was elected to her first term in 2010, has struggled to manage the Trump factor in her race. After months of refusing to say she supports him or doesn't, a Trump moment became her most high profile moment from the campaign. During a debate with Gov. Hassan, she bumbled through her answer to a question about Trump before finally saying Trump was a "role model" for children. She came out days later saying she "misspoke."
Gov. Hassan, who is serving her second term as governor of the Granite State, is now being more directly tied to questions about the top of the Democratic ticket. Shortly after the news broke about the new emails potentially related to the Clinton investigation, Ayotte released a statement saying Hassan has "made a political calculation" in her support of Clinton. And Ayotte released a new digital advertisement showing clips of Hassan refusing to say if Clinton is honest or trustworthy.
In the race that is showing Ayotte up by 2 1/2 points in the final week, Trump's and Clinton's shortcomings are going to be pivotal.
9). Florida: Republican Sen. Marco Rubio v Rep. Patrick Murphy
After a losing campaign for president, Rubio reversed himself and decided to run for re-election, upending a Senate race that Democrats felt they had a good chance of winning.
Rep. Murphy, who was elected to the House four years ago, has weaknesses that Rubio has capitalized on. Republicans have attacked him for inflating his resume and relying on his father's wealth and connections. Democrats stopped spending money in the expensive advertising state, leaving Murphy to mostly defend himself.
Murphy is trying to tie Rubio to Trump, whom he's' criticized but still endorses, which Democrats have seized on as proof that Rubio is politically malleable. But polls show that Rubio is withstanding the attacks.
The presidential race is likely to have a strong impact on the outcome in the Senate race. Trump can't win the presidency without winning Florida and Clinton and her surrogates are spending a large amount of time there - something Murphy is hoping to benefit from.
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/11/07/the-top-nine-senate-races-to-watch-on-election-day.html
Leigh Ann Caldwell
49 Mins AgoNBC NEWS
COMMENTS
Virginia ads paint Donald Trump as threat to animals
Supreme Court delays inmate Tommy Arthur's seventh execution date
Penn State fined record $2.4 million in Jerry Sandusky case
The GOP currently holds the majority with 54 seats, meaning that Democrats need a net gain of four seats to win control of the upper chamber for the next two years if Hillary Clinton wins the presidency or a net gain of five should Donald Trump prevail.
Voters are indicating that they want a congressional check on the president. While Clinton led by 4 points in the final pre-election NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, 51 percent of likely voters said they were more likely to support a Republican congressional candidate who would serve as a check on a potential Clinton presidency. Just 40 percent said they would be more likely to support a Democratic congressional candidate who would support Clinton's agenda. (Still, when voters were asked if they prefer a Congress led by Democrats or by Republicans, Clinton's party retained an advantage, 47 percent to 44 percent.)
Last-minute cash infusions by the parties and by super PACs are keeping Senate races competitive and outcomes uncertain.
With Election Day just two days away, here are nine races that could determine U.S. Senate control:
1). Illinois: Republican Sen. Mark Kirk v Democrat Tammy Duckworth
Kirk was elected to the Senate to fill the remaining days of Sen. Barack Obama's seat in 2010 while simultaneously winning his own six-year term. Kirk could very well be a one-term Senator, however, as polls in this race show Kirk is seven points behind challenger Duckworth.
Kirk has taken some moderate positions to better represent his Democratic-leaning state, including his support of gun control legislation and a vote on Obama's Supreme Court nominee Merrick Garland. He has also separated himself from Trump, being one of the first to say he would not support the nominee of his party, even running anti-Trump television ads, including this Spanish-language one.
But Kirk's controversial remarks have eclipsed his positions. He recently called President Barack Obama a "drug dealer in chief," but the most egregious comment was less than two weeks before Election Day when he said during a debate that Duckworth's parents came to the U.S. to "serve" George Washington. Kirk apologized for racially offensive remarks
While the race is more a referendum on Kirk, Duckworth, his challenger, is running on her record. As an Iraq War vet who lost both her legs while piloting a Black Hawk helicopter, she spent much of her post-war career on veterans issues, eventually winning election to the House in 2012.
Duckworth was endorsed by the right-leaning Chicago Tribune editorial board, citing Kirk's health as a reason. Kirk suffered a stroke in 2012 and in an attempt to dispel any concerns from voters, he released a letter from his doctor recently that said he has made "a full cognitive recovery."
2). Wisconsin: Republican Sen. Ron Johnson v Democratic former Sen. Russ Feingold
This is a re-match from 2010 when upstart Johnson beat 18-year incumbent Feingold in the tea party wave of 2010. Six years later, the match-up between the conservative Johnson and the liberal Feingold, is much closer than anticipated.
Early in the race, Feingold dominated the polls, resulting in the national super PACs and the respective campaign committees to stop spending money there. But the race has become nearly tied in the final weeks.
Attempting to walk a very fine line, Johnson has not defended Trump but hasn't denounced him either; he supports him but won't endorse him. At a debate earlier this month Johnson said he agreed with the nominee on issues like border security but that he won't "defend the indefensible."
Feingold is attempting to paint Johnson as a rigid conservative who is too extreme for Wisconsin while Johnson says that Feingold has spent too much time in Washington and will say anything to get elected.
3). Pennsylvania: Republican Sen. Pat Toomey v Democrat Katie McGinty
Toomey is another Republican senator who was elected in the wave of 2010 at risk of losing his re-election. He is considered to be a moderate - and popular - Republican who was endorsed by Gabby Giffords pro-gun regulation group because of his support of gun laws. He even released an ad in the final weekend before Election Day featuring President Barack Obama praising Toomey for his support on gun control.
But Pennsylvania is a presidential battleground state and that race is having an impact on Toomey, who is down two points, according to the Real Clear Politics polling average. He has refused to say if he plans to vote for Trump, saying he "remains unpersuaded," giving fodder to his challenger, McGinty, who says that Toomey doesn't have the "courage" to stand up to Trump. Toomey has responded that he's running his own race but vows to "stand up" to Trump in Washington.
McGinty, a former Secretary of the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection, has enjoyed consistent campaigning of presidential nominee Hillary Clinton and President Barack Obama who have campaigned with her in the presidential battle ground.
4). Indiana: Republican Rep. Todd Young v Democrat Evan Bayh
In this open seat to replace retiring Republican Sen. Dan Coats, Democrat Bayh is trying to win his seat back. He retired from the Senate in 2011 and with more than $10 million left over in his campaign account, Democrats recruited him to return to the Senate.
But Bayh, also a former governor and son of former senator Birch Bayh, has not been able to coast to what was expected to be an easy victory because of his 20-point lead earlier this year. But his challenger, Rep. Todd Young and allies have effectively painted him as a disconnected politician who has spent hardly any time in Indiana since he left the Senate six years ago and is more interested in making money and pleasing corporate interests than serving the people of Indiana.
Young, a former marine, has received enthusiastic support from conservative groups who have spent readily to help him. The IndyStar tabulated the amount spent on the Senate race by the candidates and outside groups has been more than $30 million through September, with Young receiving the slight advantage with the help from the main Senate Republican super PAC Senate Leadership Fund's $9 million worth of advertising in the state.
Young has endorsed Trump but threatened to renege on his support after the Access Hollywood video was leaked. But Young has not yet withdrawn his support in the conservative state that is likely to support Trump on November 8.
5). Missouri: Sen. Roy Blunt v Democrat Jason Kander
The Missouri Senate race was not expected to be close until Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump has made the political environment difficult for down-ballot candidates. Simultaneously, however, Kander has proven to be a strong campaigner, resulting in the tightening of polls in recent weeks with Blunt seeing only a one point advantage, making this one of the races that Democrats could win.
Blunt, who rose through the ranks in the House of Representatives and quickly became a part of leadership in his first term in the Senate, has endorsed Trump but has tried to run as an independent separate from the bombastic nominee. As the Kansas City Star notes, Kander has not focused on Blunt's support of Trump because Kander might need some of Trump's supporters if he wants to beat Blunt in the conservative state.
And Kander has had one of the most effective ads this campaign cycle. The telegenic 35-year old Missouri secretary of state assembles a rifle blindfolded, while saying, "Sen. Bunt has been attacking me on guns." He continues to detail his role in the U.S. Army and his positions on guns.
While Kander has sought to tie Blunt to Washington, and Blunt is trying to tie Kander to Hillary Clinton. What could be a damaging closing argument ad by the Senate Leadership Fund in the red state ties Kander to Clinton. "One Hillary in Washington would be bad enough," the narrator says.
6). Nevada: Rep. Joe Heck v Catherine Cortez Masto
Heck and Cortez Masto are running to fill Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid's open seat.
Cortez Masto, Sen. Reid's hand-picked successor and former Nevada attorney general, would be the first Latina to serve in the Senate if she won. She is aggressively trying to tie Heck to Trump, hoping that the large Latino population backs her.
Heck, a doctor and brigadier general in the U.S. Army, was first elected to Congress in 2010, in the Republican wave, but has been struggling to balance the shadow of Trump. He withdrew his endorsement of Trump after the Access Hollywood tape but Democrats are taking advantage of a leaked tape of Heck saying at a fundraiser, "I want to support him, I really do." Heck continues to say, according to CNN, that Trump "has got to change his tone."
Heck was consistently leading in the polls until mid-October when Cortez Masto is nearly tied, but showing the volatility of the race, Heck has a four point advantage according to a RCP average in the final week. A tremendous amount of money has been spent in the race with Democrats spending at least $37 million and Republicans at least $35 million in television advertisements alone - and that doesn't count the last two weeks of the election.
7). North Carolina: Republican Sen. Richard Burr v Deborah Ross
Of all the Republicans running in competitive Senate races this year, Burr is the only one who wasn't elected in 2010. He's served in the Senate for two terms and is on the Senate Intelligence committee. He's trying to fend off Ross, a former state representative and former head of the ACLU in the state, in a race that has unexpectedly become close.
Burr, who easily won his last re-election in 2010, didn't start campaigning in earnest until the Fall, forcing the Republican Party and allied groups to spend money to bolster him there as Ross started to close.
As for the Trump impact, Burr has not come to Trump's defense after the Access Hollywood tape was released but said he will vote for him. Burr is, however, trying to tie Ross to Clinton, especially after the new laptop was found 11 days before Election Day. Ross has stood by Clinton and has received the benefit of a large cadre of big-name Clinton surrogates campaigning for her in the Tar Heel State, including President Barack Obama, First Lady Michelle Obama and Sen. Elizabeth Warren.
The polls show the race tied, with the latest Real Clear Politics polling average showing Burr with 1 point advantage.
8). New Hampshire: Republican Sen. Kelly Ayotte v Gov. Maggie Hassan
Incumbent Sen. Ayotte, who was elected to her first term in 2010, has struggled to manage the Trump factor in her race. After months of refusing to say she supports him or doesn't, a Trump moment became her most high profile moment from the campaign. During a debate with Gov. Hassan, she bumbled through her answer to a question about Trump before finally saying Trump was a "role model" for children. She came out days later saying she "misspoke."
Gov. Hassan, who is serving her second term as governor of the Granite State, is now being more directly tied to questions about the top of the Democratic ticket. Shortly after the news broke about the new emails potentially related to the Clinton investigation, Ayotte released a statement saying Hassan has "made a political calculation" in her support of Clinton. And Ayotte released a new digital advertisement showing clips of Hassan refusing to say if Clinton is honest or trustworthy.
In the race that is showing Ayotte up by 2 1/2 points in the final week, Trump's and Clinton's shortcomings are going to be pivotal.
9). Florida: Republican Sen. Marco Rubio v Rep. Patrick Murphy
After a losing campaign for president, Rubio reversed himself and decided to run for re-election, upending a Senate race that Democrats felt they had a good chance of winning.
Rep. Murphy, who was elected to the House four years ago, has weaknesses that Rubio has capitalized on. Republicans have attacked him for inflating his resume and relying on his father's wealth and connections. Democrats stopped spending money in the expensive advertising state, leaving Murphy to mostly defend himself.
Murphy is trying to tie Rubio to Trump, whom he's' criticized but still endorses, which Democrats have seized on as proof that Rubio is politically malleable. But polls show that Rubio is withstanding the attacks.
The presidential race is likely to have a strong impact on the outcome in the Senate race. Trump can't win the presidency without winning Florida and Clinton and her surrogates are spending a large amount of time there - something Murphy is hoping to benefit from.
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/11/07/the-top-nine-senate-races-to-watch-on-election-day.html