Three Steps and a Stumble?

vanzandt · Mar 14, 2017

Classic TA theory.

https://www.mta.org/kb/three-steps-and-a-stumble/

carl0215 · Mar 14, 2017

More like 7 whiffs and a profit that will be wiped out by poor money management!

tommcginnis · Mar 14, 2017

"Classic" is right. Poor buggers.

I have the same theory about "3 meals and a sundown".......
it has worked *so* well.... and for *so* long........

I must be a bloodifuggin genius.

xandman · Mar 14, 2017

I think 3 steps and a tumble is based on 50 basis point hikes.

Anyway, Hulberts data:

vanzandt · Mar 15, 2017

Is there any chance of a half point bump? No one seems to be talking about that. Guess not.
Her commentary/"tone" will probably be a carbon copy of December.
What can she say to make the market go up?
Go down?
Beyond me this time around.

tommcginnis · Mar 15, 2017

vanzandt said:
Is there any chance of a half point bump? No one seems to be talking about that. Guess not.
Her commentary/"tone" will probably be a carbon copy of December.
What can she say to make the market go up?
Go down?
Beyond me this time around.

((My votes...))
A half-point?? That would not lead to stable prices, and could directly be "challenged" as not maximizing employment -- so I'll vote "no."

Yellen's yellin' similar to December?? I wanna vote "Yes" in a big way, but with those "key words" missing or reversed. Just a couple, but the text-reading machines will go nuts on them. But while 'extracurricular' economic distractions abound (Russia, NK, the Orange-utan), we have continued base-building worldwide, slowing cries of "Disaster!" in China (whether credible or not, *I* don't know...), and both a need, and an opportunity, to get away from ZIRP-dom. In short? "We're due. Here it is. More comin'."

To make the market go up?? Wow. That's a toughie. With this morning's news, we're just about at the place where "Good news is good (again); bad news is bad." If the market is looking for re-assurance, perhaps words like, "FOMC consensus is that maintaining stable prices will best be accomplished by following the federal government's lead in tax policy re-structuring..." which is to say, "We won't raise again, until tax reform is __completed__."
THAT would send *quite* the message.

What would make the market go down? That one is much easier.
"Unified-party government has historically led to fiscal run-aways and vicious inflation, and to get in front of the issue, we're going to raise rates every two months for the next year."
("Jinkies!")

Thems me votes, at any rate.

vanzandt · Mar 15, 2017

tommcginnis said:
((My votes...))
A half-point?? That would not lead to stable prices, and could directly be "challenged" as not maximizing employment -- so I'll vote "no."

Yellen's yellin' similar to December?? I wanna vote "Yes" in a big way, but with those "key words" missing or reversed. Just a couple, but the text-reading machines will go nuts on them. But while 'extracurricular' economic distractions abound (Russia, NK, the Orange-utan), we have continued base-building worldwide, slowing cries of "Disaster!" in China (whether credible or not, *I* don't know...), and both a need, and an opportunity, to get away from ZIRP-dom. In short? "We're due. Here it is. More comin'."

To make the market go up?? Wow. That's a toughie. With this morning's news, we're just about at the place where "Good news is good (again); bad news is bad." If the market is looking for re-assurance, perhaps words like, "FOMC consensus is that maintaining stable prices will best be accomplished by following the federal government's lead in tax policy re-structuring..." which is to say, "We won't raise again, until tax reform is __completed__."
THAT would send *quite* the message.

What would make the market go down? That one is much easier.
"Unified-party government has historically led to fiscal run-aways and vicious inflation, and to get in front of the issue, we're going to raise rates every two months for the next year."
("Jinkies!")

Thems me votes, at any rate.

They will either carbon copy Dec I think, or be more hawkish in their tone.
Putting my money where my mouth is... I just bought calls on GS.

tommcginnis · Mar 15, 2017

vanzandt said:
They will either carbon copy Dec I think, or be more hawkish in their tone.
Putting my money where my mouth is... I just bought calls on GS.

Had I the testicular mass, I'd join you. [Let's see: time for an emogi..... Nope. They don't have one for "Sorry. No balls."]

murray t turtle · Mar 15, 2017

xandman said:
I think 3 steps and a tumble is based on 50 basis point hikes.

Anyway, Hulberts data:

View attachment 171667

Thanks Xand man; i would not have guessed 3 hikes it would be that bullish,1980s, 1990s. But its a bull market you know- Old Turkey Said . Its a bear market for TGT, past 2 years. NOT a prediction.

xandman · Mar 15, 2017

murray t turtle said:
Thanks Xand man; i would not have guessed 3 hikes it would be that bullish,1980s, 1990s. But its a bull market you know- Old Turkey Said . Its a bear market for TGT, past 2 years. NOT a prediction.

Well, they just hiked and the everything rallied (except soybeans).

I think somebody ought to write an original paper on: " How a Stock Market rally predicts a steepening Yield Curve."

Not sure what is wrong with Target. That's the Marshall Field's Management. Things must be tough all over.