Three Laws in Trading

alex.samant · Jun 18, 2009

judging by most of the responses here, except some and a couple of guys ... i really can't talk to anybody about stuff like the "probability time window of an event" or the "shape of order flows" .... it's a shame but i never expected the statistics to be any different anyways.

i stand by my original post. whoever wants to come with fresh arguments be my guest. i don't think i have anything else to say on this subject.

Dackster · Jun 18, 2009

Quote from alex.samant:

judging by most of the responses here, except some and a couple of guys ... i really can't talk to anybody about stuff like the "probability time window of an event" or the "shape of order flows" .... it's a shame but i never expected the statistics to be any different anyways.

i stand by my original post. whoever wants to come with fresh arguments be my guest. i don't think i have anything else to say on this subject.

Alex,

What else did you expect? You must have been praying for a miracle or some low probability occurance. The shape of order flows are too interesting for the monkeys on ET.

Here's one you may be familiar with, 'the grind', after a mark up. i love the way orders just plateau at a certain level.

Far too interesting for ET.

Dackster.

Lucrum · Jun 18, 2009

Quote from alex.samant:

judging by most of the responses here, except some and a couple of guys ... i really can't talk to anybody about stuff like the "probability time window of an event" or the "shape of order flows" .... it's a shame but i never expected the statistics to be any different anyways.

i stand by my original post. whoever wants to come with fresh arguments be my guest. i don't think i have anything else to say on this subject.

I've scanned over this thread twice now and don't see where you discussed "probability time window of an event" or the "shape of order flows".

Is that coming later or are you just a tease?

euclid · Jun 18, 2009

Quote from ElCubano:

Decisions/actions you make or take will influence YOU and perhaps many but it will never tell you where price is going even by looking at where price has been. Your desicion will most definitely affect your account but not where price is headed. Price is going where it goes wether you think it shouldnt or should or did in the past...the actions/desicions you make are not what the OP was referring to...he was refferring to PRICE now or later and it not being influenced by where PRICE was when YOU enter the trade, not just in your head by looking at the chart. If you can predict where price is headed you'd be a millionaire multi gazzillionaire...

The OP should have written what he really meant because what he wrote was nonsense.

Market prices are determined by the actions of the participants in that market. Their past actions are observable in the price history. The behaviour of market participants is consistent enough for predictions to be made based on these observations.

If you cannot predict the future then you cannot trade. Every entry or exit, every order placed is a prediction of the future price. And every trading decision is based on past data, including price.

BSAM · Jun 18, 2009

Quote from alex.samant:

hey. these are 3 laws that are commonly broken by the majority of traders, kinda explaining why the grim statistics with regards to the average success rate of a trader.

1) Nothing that happened in the past (near or far) has the power to influence what will happen in the future (near or far)

2) The outcome of your trade will depend 100% on your money management decision based on the present moment

3) Your trading routine has to be part of your life and NOT the other way around

Just a little something to think about ....

Cheers y'all

LMAO---ET is truly an entertaining place.

mitsubishi · Jun 18, 2009

Quote from alex.samant:

judging by most of the responses here, except some and a couple of guys ... i really can't talk to anybody about stuff like the "probability time window of an event" or the "shape of order flows" .... it's a shame but i never expected the statistics to be any different anyways.

i stand by my original post. whoever wants to come with fresh arguments be my guest. i don't think i have anything else to say on this subject.

Wouldn't underestimate the number of 'lurkers' here when you compare membership numbers/actual posters.Some may be more tempted to join in if they read something as potentially interesting as ''probability time window of an event''.....

mitsubishi · Jun 18, 2009

Quote from euclid:

The OP should have written what he really meant because what he wrote was nonsense.

Market prices are determined by the actions of the participants in that market. Their past actions are observable in the price history. The behaviour of market participants is consistent enough for predictions to be made based on these observations.

If you cannot predict the future then you cannot trade. Every entry or exit, every order placed is a prediction of the future price. And every trading decision is based on past data, including price.

Agree

asiaprop · Jun 18, 2009

thats where you get it wrong: Past prices can give you an idea how future prices will approximately be distributed. Obviously, only using past prices itself will provide a pretty poor distribution but even if you only add volume you may already get a much better distribution with more predictive power. So, I still say what the OP wrote is utter nonesense. Plus the attitude that came through in point 3 is the one of those "I want everything now, you guys conform to how I want it, when I want it, and for how much". Wealth is in the end built through hard work and destructed when people believe they can create wealth out of thin air. In the same manner nobody will ever make a dime in trading by thinking the market will bend to his/her life style or agenda.

And with this I am out...good luck (you will need it) to those who believe they can run their trading machine 24/7 and infrequently check on their bank account right from the beach.

Quote from ElCubano:

920.23 on the sp....someone predict where it will be in 2 hours take the past 2 hours data and let me know what it tells ya...

if past action is indicative of where we are headed then we should be at ZERO on the s&p...:eek: surely the ass raping price action seen from late 07 to mar 09 would indicate we should be at zero

dozu888 · Jun 18, 2009

OP is a clueless troll

asiaprop · Jun 18, 2009

lol, you can't talk to anyone who does not conform to your canned and totally unsupported points? ...there was one single guy in this whole thread who agreed with your points (maybe 2?) everyone else brought about points to refute your claims. And now you basically tell us you were unable to make your point and wanted to discuss something entirely different...but why do you blame others for your inability? Thats where I get lost ;-)

As said I am out of here I think I have given you way too much attention.

Good luck nonetheless!!!

Quote from alex.samant:

judging by most of the responses here, except some and a couple of guys ... i really can't talk to anybody about stuff like the "probability time window of an event" or the "shape of order flows" .... it's a shame but i never expected the statistics to be any different anyways.

i stand by my original post. whoever wants to come with fresh arguments be my guest. i don't think i have anything else to say on this subject.