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Thoughts on today? Thoughts on next week? October Crashing Coming?
- Thread starter sub0
- Start date
The only crash that came today was the fact that Obama's city Chicago, lost in the first round for the Olympics.
That's the only crash your gona see. Other than Obama's poll numbers.
Nevertheless, the market needs a correction, but who knows how deep.
Once again, the smart money is NOT IN THE MARKET. Dumb money has been flow'n in these markets along with the "FED"'s stim money.
Yet, the markets can be proped up for a decade.
The jobless recovery is a fact, the double dip is still on the radar and inflation will hit hard.....just don't know when.
However, earnings season will dictate, not a crash but either a anemic market (Sideways for the next 10 years at current levels) or a continued rally.
I am bearish on the american consumer, and the middle class will be slowly eliminated. But the markets could still go up and up and up.
That's the only crash your gona see. Other than Obama's poll numbers.
Nevertheless, the market needs a correction, but who knows how deep.
Once again, the smart money is NOT IN THE MARKET. Dumb money has been flow'n in these markets along with the "FED"'s stim money.
Yet, the markets can be proped up for a decade.
The jobless recovery is a fact, the double dip is still on the radar and inflation will hit hard.....just don't know when.
However, earnings season will dictate, not a crash but either a anemic market (Sideways for the next 10 years at current levels) or a continued rally.
I am bearish on the american consumer, and the middle class will be slowly eliminated. But the markets could still go up and up and up.
Thinks I to myself, at EOM/EOQ: not much of a window-dressing effect here, but that doesn't mean they won't take their profits once the new quarter/month starts. And as sure as the rosy fingers of Dawn stroke Homer's brow (and perhaps other places) at the start of a new quarter/month, there will be bears and doomsayers coming out of every nook & cranny, going on & on about how this all proves that TEOTWAWKI is on.
Fish, guests, and bear raids in a raging bull market stink in three days. Not a trade to linger in.
Fish, guests, and bear raids in a raging bull market stink in three days. Not a trade to linger in.
U6 is a measure of unemployment plus underemployment:Quote from sub0:
According to the WSJ, the broader unemployment rate hit 17% in September.
http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2009/10/02/broader-unemployment-rate-hits-17-in-september
"U-6 Total unemployed, plus all marginally attached
workers, plus total employed part time for
economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian
labor force plus all marginally attached workers"
I have it from one of my favorite sources that an overwhelming number of buy-and-hold fund managers are lagging the indices by an embarrassing amount this year. Everybody is going to try and game the Santa Claus rally to close the gap and save their jobs.
That is why I think the current ISM/Jobs weakness will be shrugged off in very short order. PMs will be buying on any weakness, and next week we'll be reading about how a slower ISM and weaker jobs is GREAT for the market, because it means the Fed has a mandate to be much more accommodative, much longer. Let the liquitidity/weak dolllar rally continue!
That is why I think the current ISM/Jobs weakness will be shrugged off in very short order. PMs will be buying on any weakness, and next week we'll be reading about how a slower ISM and weaker jobs is GREAT for the market, because it means the Fed has a mandate to be much more accommodative, much longer. Let the liquitidity/weak dolllar rally continue!
Well Sub0, looks as though you made that common error of thinking that the markets should behave rationally. While that may be true in the limit as time goes to infinity, it certainly isn't true in the short run. Markets are beasts unto themselves and day to day movement has virtually nothing to do with reality or the fundamental true worth of the stocks and companies that underlie the market.
The myth of a rational market is kept alive by daily headlines explaining why the market went up or down and hoards of stock brokers frantically dialing for dollars. But these headlines and brokers tall tales are simply fabricated reasons appearing to be reasonable. The stock market is actually a casino driven by hype and promotion; greed and fear. It can do almost anything whether rational or not.
If I am Goldman Sachs and I say to buy home builders even though in reality home builders may have dim prospects for the next decade, you will rush out and buy home builders; the price of home builder stocks will rise, and I will unload my inventory of these dreadful stocks into your eager hands, after which the price will fall. No one really cares whether buying home builders makes any sense. It is enough that Goldman says buy. The reality of the market is created out of nothing. So anything can happen.
That is why as traders we don't trade on the basis of what we think will happen, but instead on what is happening. At the moment SPX is perched almost exactly at the intersection of its 20 week MA with its trendline. There is no way to know whether the market will rebound off of its trendline and resume its upward travel; trade sideways through the trendline; or breakdown through the trendline. We just have to wait and see and react accordingly. By patiently waiting for the market to show its hand we exchange some potential profit for a higher probability of being right when finally we place our bet.
The myth of a rational market is kept alive by daily headlines explaining why the market went up or down and hoards of stock brokers frantically dialing for dollars. But these headlines and brokers tall tales are simply fabricated reasons appearing to be reasonable. The stock market is actually a casino driven by hype and promotion; greed and fear. It can do almost anything whether rational or not.
If I am Goldman Sachs and I say to buy home builders even though in reality home builders may have dim prospects for the next decade, you will rush out and buy home builders; the price of home builder stocks will rise, and I will unload my inventory of these dreadful stocks into your eager hands, after which the price will fall. No one really cares whether buying home builders makes any sense. It is enough that Goldman says buy. The reality of the market is created out of nothing. So anything can happen.
That is why as traders we don't trade on the basis of what we think will happen, but instead on what is happening. At the moment SPX is perched almost exactly at the intersection of its 20 week MA with its trendline. There is no way to know whether the market will rebound off of its trendline and resume its upward travel; trade sideways through the trendline; or breakdown through the trendline. We just have to wait and see and react accordingly. By patiently waiting for the market to show its hand we exchange some potential profit for a higher probability of being right when finally we place our bet.