Those Who Missed Shorting XLF, Are You as Depressed as Me?

[rock34748]

Quote from shortie:

futures are pointing down. i have a feeling the market will dump big time on monday.

the short week made everyone confused, so they bought. monday is a good time for a reality check.

Crap, I did a small EOD short. But all this talk has me convinced we rally in financials this week because too many think "it can't continue." I'll probably look for near BE bail from the trade. Bummer.

 

[gkishot]

Quote from shortie:

futures are pointing down. i have a feeling the market will dump big time on monday.

the short week made everyone confused, so they bought. monday is a good time for a reality check.

Agree. Time to short.

 

[athlonmank8]

Quote from Brandonf:

So what, it was hard for the smartest people in the world would be looking the other way and let the entire financial system fall into shit.

Things that should be statistically impossible happen all the time in the stock market. Your going to go broke with a mindset like that.

I'm not saying not to trade on bias and opinion, I think you MUST have both to be effective, but I think your's is flawed and based on emotion and the crowd (ie 90% of the other traders your talking to agree with you that this is fucking stupid)

Easy there. The thing has a history of filling gaps. Big gaps, small gaps. A gaps a gap.

If it's not then you're gonna need to toss in 10 other variables.

Where's it in relation to MA's (and other S&R), how big is the gap, what's the basis behind the gap, hell even what cycle it's in can matter.

If we're using a plain vanilla strategy this thing's gonna get filled.

Where's the stop? Tiny...give it 1-2% and if you lose, you lose.

 

[shortie]

Quote from shortie:

This Thursday I got so busy trying to find intraday plays that I totally ignored the fact that we have a GIANT Gap to fill on financials. Given the fact that this rally is getting old and the financials are way overbought, this gap must fill and soon.

Crap, I likely missed 15% (if the gap is filled). We probably will tank on Monday and i don't like to chase.

When will this gap fill?

Dear Trading Gods, Thank YOU for letting me short financials today!!

I promise to sacrifice a nice fat pig if you let me profit handsomely from this trade.

Sincerely,
Shortie

 

[shortie]

Quote from shortie:

Dear Trading Gods, Thank YOU for letting me short financials today!!

I promise to sacrifice a nice fat pig if you let me profit handsomely from this trade.

Sincerely,
Shortie

don't have the guts to wait for the gap to fill. took easy money from yesterday's short and i am out.

 

[riskfreetrading]

Quote from riskfreetrading:

I would expect great earnings, followed immediately by some sort of public offerings from the likes of Goldman, Wells, etc.

I would place XLF near term top at around $11.20 or less. Friday's high is $10.70, which is in the neighborhood.

How did the $11.20 estimate of the top work?

 

[shortie]

Quote from riskfreetrading:

How did the $11.20 estimate of the top work?

spot on! thanks!

 

[athlonmank8]

Quote from athlonmank8:

Easy there. The thing has a history of filling gaps. Big gaps, small gaps. A gaps a gap.

If it's not then you're gonna need to toss in 10 other variables.

Where's it in relation to MA's (and other S&R), how big is the gap, what's the basis behind the gap, hell even what cycle it's in can matter.

If we're using a plain vanilla strategy this thing's gonna get filled.

Where's the stop? Tiny...give it 1-2% and if you lose, you lose.

KISS. I got stopped out tho today. Still short some other junk.

You can't over-think trading. Period. Money management is the key and never look back.

 

[shortie]

So, XLF keeps moving higher. But the Gap IS STILL THERE, totally unfilled. I still assume it is a good bet that the gap will be at least partially filled soon. So, the plan is to short financials and start exiting as the gap is getting filled.

Ok, I have a plan. Now I need to execute it. I have noticed that some small banks went up like crazy (~300%!!) in the last month and a half. I am guessing the suckers will drop a lot the moment XLF starts moving down. One caveat with these banks is that they easy shoot up +10-20%/day (like today for example).

 

[inks2002]

hope you stuck to your instinct and went short for the gap fill!