you have message below your post/status that says" want to be a futures...trader...etc"
how can i do that
Those that poopood on moving averages, thoughts on this?
- Thread starter Saltynuts
- Start date
how can i do that
lolol your posts make me laugh brother. loses 100k, now trades with 10 usd. Shoulda been the other other way around lmao but i Like your spirit.yes i have experienced losses of 100000 usd
that is why i am trading as a hobby with 10 usd which i lose eventually
i have no clue when to take profit or where to put stop
i am the worst trader
I looked at the article on ranking technical market indicators by Annual Relative Advantage, and I suppose this is great if you just want to select indicators based on average performance and use them exactly as used in the research, but that’s not me.
I actually happened across this thread because I was looking for one that dealt with non-lagging moving averages. I was unable to find one, however. The only thing that turned up was a comment Handle123 made about the moving average created by Alan Hull in 2005.
I came up with an “instantaneous moving average” of my own several years ago with which I was relatively pleased, though it did not behave exactly as I had in mind. But I guess it must have been good/close enough nonetheless, because I never made a concerted effort to iron out its minor foibles until yesterday.
Since the Hull moving average is supposed to almost eliminate lag altogether and improve smoothing at the same time (though he recommends using it for directional signals and not for crossovers which could be distorted by the lag) I plotted both his moving average and my moving average on a one-hour chart to compare the two.
I liked mine better because there was less lag, though I have to admit, mine is not as smooth as Hull's. However, its real power is found in using directly corresponding “instantaneous” moving averages generated on lower time-frame charts to pinpoint the precise minute that entering a given intraday position is likely to result in a successful trade which fulfills its maximum potential in terms of profit. (This is just hypothetical of course, since I will not be using it until after New Year’s.)
I like yours better because retracements will show up more of flat areas of couple of bars than the Hull giving more of slope of trend, but developing models for scalping actually use slower SMA's for trend, flat areas I deem to be change of trend. I prefer to anticipate where it should turn than waiting for the turn and still be able to average down, but the problem of defining too well of anticipated turn does not allow ave down, so now am working on what many do is ave up which can be fine in wider mini swings or waves of a swing, but when price returns to normal swing lengths of 7-10 points, ave up does not work so well for my style of scalping. Lag is not always bad, stops of over trading.
Yes, your MA does look rather good for defining secondary H/L's or better known as failed attempts to break extremes of moves-Nice.
Do it with real live money for 2 years using just that method, and get back to us with the results?
Because if yer right, you've found a leading indicator, which is the holy grail.
Don't you think it is impossible to get max profit of any trade? If you using 20 second charts going for 1-3 ticks, it is often controlled noise of latching onto HFT's or larger traders half second before they getting in, but really that is luck. I think in scalping or day trading or for that matter any time horizon, profit is a dream of how much and all you can hope to be able to do is for most part control risk.
If your grandfather bought you upon your birth 100 shares of each component in the Dow in 1933, and you just found out today, and you look at the market on yearly bar chart, wouldn't trend be up? Would you been a multi-millionaire and never taken one trade? I wonder if this has ever happened? LOL
My trade rules, as they stand now, would give me permission to buy this asset down in the lower left-hand corner, when the candlesticks began forming above all of the white moving averages. Trading conservatively, I would place my take-profit target at the top band of the dotted simple moving average envelope (1).
According to my research, such a target is almost always hit, even when there is not a lot of liquidity in the market. So though the payoffs are smaller, when I trade in this manner, I usually end up with a daily success rate somewhere north of 90%.
If willing to be considerably more ambitious however, I would set my take-profit target at the top band of the triple-banded simple moving average envelope (2). But in doing so, I would still not be letting my profits run.
On the other hand, if able to monitor/mange or automate my trades, I would remain in the position until candlesticks began forming below both the spider-webby thin-lined triple moving average cluster AND the bold white moving average (3).
For me personally, this third approach would be maximizing the potential profit from this particular trade. Yes, it is not the maximum amount of available profit literally. I’m just talking about getting the most I can out of my trades given my limited knowledge/skills/resources.
Let me quote Ray Dalio here:''
As an investor, my perspective is different from that of most economists and policy makers because I bet on
economic changes via the markets that reflect them, which forces me to focus on the relative values and flows that
drive the movements of capital. Those, in turn, drive these cycles. In the process of trying to navigate them, I’ve
found there is nothing like the pain of being wrong or the pleasure of being right as a global macro investor to
provide the practical lessons about economics that are unavailable in textbooks.
After repeatedly being bit by events I never encountered before, I was driven to go beyond my own personal
experiences to examine all the big economic and market movements in history, and to do that in a way that would
make them virtual experiences—i.e., so that they would show up to me as though I was experiencing them in real
time. That way I would have to place my market bets as if I only knew what happened up until that moment. I
did that by studying historical cases chronologically and in great detail, experiencing them day by day and month
by month. This gave me a much broader and deeper perspective than if I had limited my perspective to my own
direct experiences. Through my own experience, I went through the erosion and eventual breakdown of the global
monetary system (“Bretton Woods”) in 1966–1971, the inflation bubble of the 1970s and its bursting in 1978–82,
the Latin American inflationary depression of the 1980s, the Japanese bubble of the late 1980s and its bursting in
1988–1991, the global debt bubbles that led to the “tech bubble” bursting in 2000, and the Great Deleveraging of
2008. And through studying history, I experienced the collapse of the Roman Empire in the fifth century, the
United States debt restructuring in 1789, Germany’s Weimar Republic in the 1920s, the global Great Depression
and war that engulfed many countries in the 1930–45 period, and many other crises.''
sounds like a lot of work, doesn't it?? what a shame he didn't come across this thread..could've saved him so much work
all the best in 2019 and try not to get sucked up by those 'easy ways' or he will be taking your money from you
As an investor, my perspective is different from that of most economists and policy makers because I bet on
economic changes via the markets that reflect them, which forces me to focus on the relative values and flows that
drive the movements of capital. Those, in turn, drive these cycles. In the process of trying to navigate them, I’ve
found there is nothing like the pain of being wrong or the pleasure of being right as a global macro investor to
provide the practical lessons about economics that are unavailable in textbooks.
After repeatedly being bit by events I never encountered before, I was driven to go beyond my own personal
experiences to examine all the big economic and market movements in history, and to do that in a way that would
make them virtual experiences—i.e., so that they would show up to me as though I was experiencing them in real
time. That way I would have to place my market bets as if I only knew what happened up until that moment. I
did that by studying historical cases chronologically and in great detail, experiencing them day by day and month
by month. This gave me a much broader and deeper perspective than if I had limited my perspective to my own
direct experiences. Through my own experience, I went through the erosion and eventual breakdown of the global
monetary system (“Bretton Woods”) in 1966–1971, the inflation bubble of the 1970s and its bursting in 1978–82,
the Latin American inflationary depression of the 1980s, the Japanese bubble of the late 1980s and its bursting in
1988–1991, the global debt bubbles that led to the “tech bubble” bursting in 2000, and the Great Deleveraging of
2008. And through studying history, I experienced the collapse of the Roman Empire in the fifth century, the
United States debt restructuring in 1789, Germany’s Weimar Republic in the 1920s, the global Great Depression
and war that engulfed many countries in the 1930–45 period, and many other crises.''
sounds like a lot of work, doesn't it?? what a shame he didn't come across this thread..could've saved him so much work
all the best in 2019 and try not to get sucked up by those 'easy ways' or he will be taking your money from you
"I don’t think my principles are important. You could pick whatever principles that you want. What I learned when I was going along is that every time I would make decisions, they’re paid—particularly after making mistakes. It paid to write down what my principles were for dealing with that the next time I’m going around. And I think the important thing is individuals picking their principles for themselves. So one of the things that’s excited me about it is also people doing it for themselves. I don’t want them to follow my principles. I want them to think hard about what works, and then think about being clear on their own principles."
~Ray Dalio (Business Insider, September 19, 2018)
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Maybe, but 80%/+ drawdowns in '29 ....could be a real gut wrencher. And i just found out GE, one of the dirty dozen ,DOW stocks has been kicked out of index 2, now 3 times.
.Not a stock tip