Those making a killing- what are you doing risk mgmt-wise (that i'm not!)...
- Thread starter gangof4
- Start date
<i>"Conclusion, if you can't hang with ER2, go to the sideline or find something else."</i>
Mark, I'm not disparaging the ER at all. It's been very good to me for a long while. That said, there is no advantage of trading ER over ES any more.
The only edge ER used to have is 2x $$ range covered intraday. If the ES had a 12pt range and ER 10.5pt range (common before) that would be $600 per contract travel in ES, and $1,050 travel in ER.
That was the only edge ER ever had. The fact that tick size is $10 ER versus $12.50 ES is totally irrelevant... each would cover that distance in unison. A -$50 stop in ER is identical to -$50 stop in ES, regardless how many ticks compile the distance.
Now we have the ES trading nearly 2x range of ER. That means each swing is roughly the same dollar value in distance covered. No edge in ER any more.
Also, size is not a problem in ES nor are market orders. I enjoy knowing I'll be filled within one tick of expectancy on ES with market orders, not suffering from missed trades by not filling to the tick.
Market orders in ER for 5-lot or bigger has always been a surprise. Now it's an adventure or nightmare, depending on which trade when.
I've made & lost money with all the minis. At this point in time, none have any advantage over ES imo. Booking +10pts or greater ES intraday can be done by accident: viva la volatility!
Mark, I'm not disparaging the ER at all. It's been very good to me for a long while. That said, there is no advantage of trading ER over ES any more.
The only edge ER used to have is 2x $$ range covered intraday. If the ES had a 12pt range and ER 10.5pt range (common before) that would be $600 per contract travel in ES, and $1,050 travel in ER.
That was the only edge ER ever had. The fact that tick size is $10 ER versus $12.50 ES is totally irrelevant... each would cover that distance in unison. A -$50 stop in ER is identical to -$50 stop in ES, regardless how many ticks compile the distance.
Now we have the ES trading nearly 2x range of ER. That means each swing is roughly the same dollar value in distance covered. No edge in ER any more.
Also, size is not a problem in ES nor are market orders. I enjoy knowing I'll be filled within one tick of expectancy on ES with market orders, not suffering from missed trades by not filling to the tick.
Market orders in ER for 5-lot or bigger has always been a surprise. Now it's an adventure or nightmare, depending on which trade when.
I've made & lost money with all the minis. At this point in time, none have any advantage over ES imo. Booking +10pts or greater ES intraday can be done by accident: viva la volatility!
The er is experiencing the effect of cap/arb along with a limping product with the move to ice. The ym on the other hand has doubled volume and nearly that on the idem seat price. Follow the money!!!!
I believe the thread starter was looking for info about ER2.
Thus, I'm not sure where all the other stuff is coming from about what others are trading instead of ER2.
However, many times a strategy performs better on a particular trading instrument in comparison to another trading instrument...
Such can easily be backtested to determine which trading instrument is more suitable for trading.
Simply, if the test show YM is better to trade in comparison to another trading instrument...
There's really no reason why someone should be trading that other trading instrument instead of YM.
Just the same, if the performance is better with ER2 in comparison to something else...
Trade ER2.
This is a constant theme I talk about often at ET is that we should sit down to determine which is more suitable to trade via statistical comparison.
I've done that (testing) and ER2 is more suitable for my trade methodology and personal trading style in comparison to the other Emini (EMD, ES, NQ and YM) especially during high volatilty market conditions.
For example, one of my stats show that I get about 25% more trade signals with ER2 than the other Eminis.
However, ER2 is not the best trading instrument for me because the DAX, FTSE100 and CAC40 are more suitable for my approach to the markets but I'm currently unable to trade those particular trading instruments due to a conflict with my family (spouse and kids) that would require me to get up very early (soon after midnight) to began preparing to trade Eurex or Euronext.
Therefore, going down the testing ladder...ER2 is next in line for me follow by EuroFX.
Simply, if your statistics or results show ES is the best one to trade...
Trade the ES and that really has nothing to do with the thread starter trying to improve his results in trading ER2.
Mark
I was going to say that you were wrong about the dollar range being better on ES, but I looked at the ranges and compared and you are right.
However, why are you and others in this thread using MARKET ORDERS trading futures?
I'm guessing you guys don't trade off the DOM. I've never had problems with Limit orders or getting bad fills on stops placed ahead of time. IMO, if you are using market orders you are not planning the trade.
<i>"so, any words of wisdom, from those who are making the most of the volatility, would be most appreciated."</i>
Unless I'm reading wrong, the OP asked anyone who has success to share some advice. OP stated they currently trade the ER... where does it ask for advice specific to trading the ER? I don't see that.
My suggestion includes ER being part of the OP's current challenge. I found it easier to profit in ES than ER myself, after years of experience with the latter. The approach I use is not systematic, hence any symbol that moves on a chart gives similar signals.
As for market orders, they totally eliminate the constant issue of not being filled to the tick. Any emini trader has experienced many times the frustration of planning a trade, patiently awaiting a trade and setting their limit order where it seems prudent. Everything done according to plan.
Then the emini symbol (pick one) trades right to their price, sits right on that price for seconds or minutes and then reverses on a dime to spurt off as expected... with no fill on the order. All that time, effort and planning down the drain. Am I the only one here whom that has ever happened to on limit orders to enter?
Also, limit entry orders in the ER will never fill five contracts or more consistently. There will always be partial slippage on the orders in illiquid markets unless they are crappy signals that take a ton of heat. If you have any kind of precision on your entry signals, the ER will fill one - two contracts of five or more and whisk away from limit orders all the time. Been there, lived thru that for years.
Market orders for entry (and stop-market exit) totally eliminate that frustration. The few trades stopped out to the exact tick are greatly trumped by an equal or greater number of trades otherwise missed that profit big.
*
ER is fine... but no one should marry any symbol out of emotion. For all we know, the ER2 will have 1/2 its current range when ICE lists the big contract and mini side by side. Arbs may chop the former range to pieces while spreading both for the different strike values. Who knows?
If pressed, I could trade any of the five minis (S&P 400 included) and make money. But why not follow the path of least resistance. At this point in time, ES has equal to greater $$ range than all others and many times the liquidity of all. It seems that part of the OP's problem is spiky gyrations in ER... hence suggestion to look elsewhere and compare
Unless I'm reading wrong, the OP asked anyone who has success to share some advice. OP stated they currently trade the ER... where does it ask for advice specific to trading the ER? I don't see that.
My suggestion includes ER being part of the OP's current challenge. I found it easier to profit in ES than ER myself, after years of experience with the latter. The approach I use is not systematic, hence any symbol that moves on a chart gives similar signals.
As for market orders, they totally eliminate the constant issue of not being filled to the tick. Any emini trader has experienced many times the frustration of planning a trade, patiently awaiting a trade and setting their limit order where it seems prudent. Everything done according to plan.
Then the emini symbol (pick one) trades right to their price, sits right on that price for seconds or minutes and then reverses on a dime to spurt off as expected... with no fill on the order. All that time, effort and planning down the drain. Am I the only one here whom that has ever happened to on limit orders to enter?
Also, limit entry orders in the ER will never fill five contracts or more consistently. There will always be partial slippage on the orders in illiquid markets unless they are crappy signals that take a ton of heat. If you have any kind of precision on your entry signals, the ER will fill one - two contracts of five or more and whisk away from limit orders all the time. Been there, lived thru that for years.
Market orders for entry (and stop-market exit) totally eliminate that frustration. The few trades stopped out to the exact tick are greatly trumped by an equal or greater number of trades otherwise missed that profit big.
*
ER is fine... but no one should marry any symbol out of emotion. For all we know, the ER2 will have 1/2 its current range when ICE lists the big contract and mini side by side. Arbs may chop the former range to pieces while spreading both for the different strike values. Who knows?
If pressed, I could trade any of the five minis (S&P 400 included) and make money. But why not follow the path of least resistance. At this point in time, ES has equal to greater $$ range than all others and many times the liquidity of all. It seems that part of the OP's problem is spiky gyrations in ER... hence suggestion to look elsewhere and compare
There are too many week hands in ER2 ES and YM. This is the reason of the big short term volatility.
You need bigger stops and this will lead you to bigger profit targets, hence longer time frame.
Or increase your winning % and keep your profit target close but then to have high winning % you still need your stops bigger, which will force your target profit to get bigger.... -> bigger time frame.
You have a dilemma on your hands I think.
But I would guess the solution is too pull back a bit and lengthen your time frame of trading and reduce the number of trades you do.
You need bigger stops and this will lead you to bigger profit targets, hence longer time frame.
Or increase your winning % and keep your profit target close but then to have high winning % you still need your stops bigger, which will force your target profit to get bigger.... -> bigger time frame.
You have a dilemma on your hands I think.
But I would guess the solution is too pull back a bit and lengthen your time frame of trading and reduce the number of trades you do.