rally will come to an end before that .
Thorn is calling..
- Thread starter thorn
- Start date
rally will come to an end before that .
The rally will come to an end in another 300 es points.
No clue when it ends but this rallye must be excrutiating for stubborn shorts. Ah those tops look good....in retrospect !
rally ends day after election day 2006 .
maybe but I do not buy it because it is too obvious. My play will be to anticipate a short squeeze for a few days after election day, then re-analyze the market situation.
obvious to whom ?
Quote from ghostzapper:
obvious to whom ?
Just reading many posts on ET.
I have no idea where the S&P will end up. I think it is just best to be long whilst it is acting bullish, and then exit once it stops acting that way. Even if the call is correct and the S&P *does* go below 1350 by year end, surely it is much more profitable to short once it starts doing that, rather than before it shows any sign of doing so? Unless I have missed some sign of a reversal or imminent top, that is - in which case I'd love to know what that sign was.
Some other markets that are acting medium-term/long-term bullish are corn, wheat, and the Nikkei. I haven't seen many markets that are acting bearish at the moment, although oil and gold were doing so until just recently and are worth watching closely to see if there's any change.
P.S. If someone put a gun to my head, I would say the S&P is most likely to approach the "puke point" for shorts, then top there and fall back. I'd estimate that point to be a moderate amount above 1400 - say 1405-1430. Also, timing it depends on how sentiment reacts. If everyone gets really enthusiastic & bullish on a break through, then I'd be inclined to start betting on a fall. If people remain sceptical, I'd say it's much less likely to be a top. The ideal pattern for a short for me, would be a break through 1400, quick spike up for 1-3 days, rampant bullishness, and then a swift reversal day and further fall which gets viewed as a good "pullback to buy" by the CNBC crowd.
Some other markets that are acting medium-term/long-term bullish are corn, wheat, and the Nikkei. I haven't seen many markets that are acting bearish at the moment, although oil and gold were doing so until just recently and are worth watching closely to see if there's any change.
P.S. If someone put a gun to my head, I would say the S&P is most likely to approach the "puke point" for shorts, then top there and fall back. I'd estimate that point to be a moderate amount above 1400 - say 1405-1430. Also, timing it depends on how sentiment reacts. If everyone gets really enthusiastic & bullish on a break through, then I'd be inclined to start betting on a fall. If people remain sceptical, I'd say it's much less likely to be a top. The ideal pattern for a short for me, would be a break through 1400, quick spike up for 1-3 days, rampant bullishness, and then a swift reversal day and further fall which gets viewed as a good "pullback to buy" by the CNBC crowd.
Well said, I agree it begins with the first opening tha doesnt hold. We havent had one of those in what feels like forever.