This Market wont go down!!
- Thread starter Bogan7
- Start date
tradethetrade
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If you pull up the dow weekly, the market was on a tear since the 90's up to 2000, then consolidated, corrected, now it's breaking out again. From a technical standpoint, it looks like it's gonna keep going up. From a psy and econ standpoint, it's too scary to get in but if you build your pos little by little you might get a chance to catch some action.
i keep hearing the same nonsene that the markets staying up because the $'s weak and its really lower in gold terms or euro terms. thats bs. if that were the case why did mexico crash in 1994 when the peso fell out of bed or why did brazil initially crash when they devalued? also the flip side to the weak dollar is foreigners will stop buying are stocks and bonds which will cause rates to sky. i also read the nonsense that the dows gone no were in 8 years in inflation adjusted terms. if thats the case japan is down 55% in real terms and 99% in inlflation adjusted terms since 1989. remember near tops of mania long moves excuses are always made to justify the move. i remember in the late 90's the same crap i'm hearing now. when the dollar was strong that was good but when it was weak that was also good. when rates rose that was good because it meant earnings good but when rates fell that was also good because it meant valuations could go higher. BOTTOM LINE WHEN ITS TIME FOR MARKET TO FALL HARD NOTHING CAN STOP IT
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB117745968080381281.html
Behind Stocks' Run at Record
Overseas Markets Pace
Corporate Profit Growth,
Defying Slowdown Fears
With first-quarter earnings season looming, investors fretted that a slowing economy would stunt corporate profits and send the stock market tumbling.
Instead, strong growth abroad and a weak dollar combined to boost profits at a slew of big companies, helping drive the stock market into record territory.
"It's the best of both worlds," says Bank of America chief market strategist Joseph Quinlan. "Global growth is strong and the dollar is weak. You can't ask for anything more if you're a multinational."
"U.S. firms have positioned themselves for this explosion in overseas growth and the slowdown in the U.S.," says Alliance Bernstein economist Joseph Carson. "The international influence on firms' profits has never been so strong."
Behind Stocks' Run at Record
Overseas Markets Pace
Corporate Profit Growth,
Defying Slowdown Fears
With first-quarter earnings season looming, investors fretted that a slowing economy would stunt corporate profits and send the stock market tumbling.
Instead, strong growth abroad and a weak dollar combined to boost profits at a slew of big companies, helping drive the stock market into record territory.
"It's the best of both worlds," says Bank of America chief market strategist Joseph Quinlan. "Global growth is strong and the dollar is weak. You can't ask for anything more if you're a multinational."
"U.S. firms have positioned themselves for this explosion in overseas growth and the slowdown in the U.S.," says Alliance Bernstein economist Joseph Carson. "The international influence on firms' profits has never been so strong."
valid points. wrt brazil and mexico devals vs the US, aren't those like comparing apples and elephants on the world financial stage. the dollar is a good bit different being world reserve currency
Who gives a shit! Just go with the trend. Trying to figure out why is futile. By the time you figure out why it hasn't, the market will sell and you'll be trying to buy.
They only "REASON" one should sell is because prices are going lower. Too many people try to out think the price as if it's wrong. The price is the only thing which matters. Everything else BS
seriously. i know. i've been with the trend and directionally ambivalent most of my time as a trader. still sorting out why i fell so deeply out of tune last june. too aggressive, too fast and i trapped myself in the idea after initial success on the May drop. size and stubbornness, terrible combo. i'm just realizing how quickly that can mess up a decent record.
when i put complete non traders in my chair and present my predicament, it's excruciatingly obvious to them.... 'go with the flow' they say
i never expected to succumb to this particular error
Quote from light:
Well I dont subscribe to the idea the market wont go down but here are some reasons if you do:
1. people feel good.why wouldn't the market keep going? investors sit on fat profits and a 4% drop doesn't mean anythign to them.
That's not what the plummeting consumer confidence reports have been saying.
Which "people" are you referring to?
The ones squeezing the markets, while the retail traders are shorting?
4. People who have money have to put it somewhere.
There's a reason the brokerage houses have been having huge profits in the trading divisions.