This Market Sucks!!!

<i>"News normally follows accumulation or distribution, just because we don't know, doesn't mean that others don't. If there are definite signs of A or D present then you have to assume that there is a group of people that are looking for a directional move to start or continue, going against them is like tackling 5 football players by yourself, size of balls is irrelevant "</i>

That is true. On a day like yesterday where selling pressure was prevalent all session, a great many times it will resolve by defensive buying efforts being crushed into the close as indexes hit new lows.

Many examples of that exact scenario are visible in charts from peak index highs last year until now. How many afternoon sessions tried to bounce one or several times, only to be crushed into drastically lower lows by the closing bell? How many traders tried to buy those false breaks of resistance, trendlines, bullish oscillators, etc past 3pm est only to be smashed in the resulting sell-stop cascade?

Yesterday's outcome was an outlier. For every massive v-reversal into the close, many more sessions will continue to trend or roll sideways.

Also, big money players with inside news to work with do not "suck in" anyone. They press the market up or down in grinding directional fashion while everyone else wonders who the hell is bucking a trend. Once the news has broken hours later, it is apparent what big money knew ahead of time.

When markets v-reverse like they did yesterday, it ain't from a cluster of retail traders flipping their five-lots around. Big money players were short at 3:30pm est, and they changed their minds when unknown (to them) news was released.

If the news had been know to them, price action would have never failed dramatically on the late afternoon 2:57pm est pop which was sold into with gusto. Big money would have been that pop, pushing to new session highs before news ever reached CNBC
 
AustinP, TY for solid posts!

Regarding your last one, I don't think they simply changed their mind at news release, "they" tried to offload shorts on a quiet leading into news release (stock trading 101), actually I don't know when news has hit the wire, I assume it was at the time when I entered a long LOL. When news became public they could not distribute (whilst accumulating at the same time) on a quite any more and were forced to liquidate whilst reversing at the same time heavy size, obviously "they" as in market movers.
 
Quote from spinfoiltrading:

Also...to add some more food for thought...


lets say this announcement was made, but rather than break up...the market broke down further.

Yes, I know some believe that is illogical, and maybe it is...but group psychology often is...and the liquid, capital markets are all ruled more by the psychology of the masses than cold hard logic.

So, then some would be saying "I was watching CNBC, and all this good news came out... but the market still dumped, it's so unfair!" etc...etc...

However, for those who are simply watching price action, be it a chart or a ticker... the news would not have mattered one bit. All that would have mattered was a change in short term direction from short to long.

Price guys. as usual. price.
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Spin everything you said in the last post is how it is done by the price action guys that do well with AHG. Funny you mention the taking out of the pivot... the experienced guys in the channel today were yelling buy buy buy as soon as we took that out.
 
<i>"Regarding your last one, I don't think they simply changed their mind at news release, "they" tried to offload shorts on a quiet leading into news release (stock trading 101), actually I don't know when news has hit the wire, I assume it was at the time when I entered a long LOL. When news became public they could not distribute (whilst accumulating at the same time) on a quite any more and were forced to liquidate whilst reversing at the same time heavy size, obviously "they" as in market movers."</i>

Yes, you did a fine job of getting long on the first valid buy signals and catching some of the updraft. Who would have thought ES would blow +30pts on that news? Markets definitely have a bid beneath them lately... cannot climb to new recent highs, but there is a refusal to sell off. Hence the several sessions' sideways range. We're due for a big resolution, real soon.
 
<i>"Funny you mention the taking out of the pivot... the experienced guys in the channel today were yelling buy buy buy as soon as we took that out."</i>

They were? It must have been verbal then, because text notes posted imply everyone with no exceptions was either short or confused from 3:30pm onward.

Maybe I glanced at the wrong day's report, but that's how it reads to me.

Bottom line, careers are not made (or broken) on news-blast reversals out of the blue. Sometimes we catch them, sometimes we miss. Just get good at pulling points out of the market more days than not, and keep those other days contained to small losses.

Then let time take over.
 
Quote from retire45:

THIS MARKET SUCKS!!!
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According to some people the market sucks all the time. Back in 1999/2000 all the losers said that the market sucked and that they wanted a return to the good ole days before. During the bear market from 2000-2003 they wanted the bull market back, and during the bull market that started in 2003, that market sucked too and they wished for a return to the good ole days.
 
We are in a liquidity crisis. no liquidity means you can have very large moves on very LITTLE volume.

trade accordingly. wait till it becomes easy again, then back the truck up.
 
Quote from retire45:

Thing is I am (supposed to be?) a swing trader but VERY difficult to hold your ground in these conditions.. EVERY swing stop is take out.. and I can't give as much berth as the markets seem to want.. Or stay out until the 1320 to 1370 is left for good?... Then at 1310 or 1380 there will be something to kill the trend.. again
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You said you made a mint in the last 30 minutes....presumeably that was off a perfect swing low...wtf?
 
Quote from austinp:

.....Bottom line, careers are not made (or broken) on news-blast reversals out of the blue. Sometimes we catch them, sometimes we miss. Just get good at pulling points out of the market more days than not, and keep those other days contained to small losses.

Then let time take over.
More...

Thank you.

So damn funny how so many of these ET "bigshots" try to imply that if you missed the move late yesterday afernoon, that you're somehow not qualified to even be trading. I think most of them are so elated when they catch a lucky shot, they just have to come on EliteTrader.com to prove their manhood or something.
 
I was short at 31.75, covered at 30.50 when I saw that the new lows were being puked back up, and got long a small number and held into the close.

Made money short, and made money being long.

And yet I felt miserable at 4 PM, because my long position was small. Since I do not chase markets, I missed out. For the first time in a while, I sat there in my chair feeling overwhelmed and perplexed at the monster move taking place on my screen.

As someone who has preached here about averaging up during trend moves, I did not practice it yesterday.

After having some time to think about yesterday afternoon, I have come to the conclusion that I was way, way too hard on myself.

You cannot build a long-term trading career on the exceptions to the rule. How often does the market hang around the day's lows after failing to have anything approaching a decent mid-day rally, and then spring like a rocket into the close, going from new lows to new highs in less than an hour?

Few.

Long-term trading careers, rather, are based on higher probability set-ups and disciplined profit-taking and loss-taking, both of which are done best with stops.

I congratulate those who were able to cash in big yesterday afternoon. You won on Jeopardy, and I lost on Jeopardy, going home with a case of Rice a Roni

But I will stick with my principles. News based reversals are the exceptions to the rule, not the rule, even in bear markets like this. Most times, on a day like Friday, the market would have gone down to S2 or maybe even lower. The pivot would have remained up there untouched.

Buying otm options, chasing news reversals are best left for someone else.

:)
 
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