This market is WEAK!!!

[heidegger]

Quote from scriabinop23:

who's taking profits?

shorts from 1480, 1520, 1560?

or longs from 1370, 1400, 1450?




maybe we've just found a temporary fair value with 'risk premium' factored in.

As you indicate, there are piles of people who could cash in here; up, down, or sideways, there could be a lot more transactions. Calm before storm?

 

[Comanche]

Quote from stock_trad3r:

You guys are way over analyzing this. The market isn't going lower and volume isn't very important.

just go long and make money. Widen your time frame.

Give it up man, you are the alter-ego of someone smart, trying to stir the pot. Nobody could truly be this stupid.

 

[stock_trad3r]

Quote from Comanche:

Give it up man, you are the alter-ego of someone smart, trying to stir the pot. Nobody could truly be this stupid.

I've been hearing the same 'weak volume' arguments for the past year almost every time the market trends higher. Meanwhile the dow is up 25%...

 

[austinp]

<i>"Their is range but you must trade the index futures 24 hours a day to catch it. "</i>

Oh really now? Who is humanly capable of accomplishing that?

One thing is for sure: if I were a young stock investor who only bought dips and never sold, I'd be out there earning another income, hanging with my friends, cruising chicks, traveling around the country = world, etc.

I sure as heck wouldn't be haunting some trader's mesage board around the clock.

*

Per the topic of this thread. The market ain't bullish, it merely stopped going down due to artificial props by the Fed. There is no massive volume = huge A/D skew upside signalling buyers at work. It is a seller's boycott, which is why every buy program gets slammed in the face on accelerated volume.

The tape went up from recent lows on thin air, overnight ramps with nil volume, open gaps and swiss cheese. When it comes back down on the next turn, it will wipe out days or weeks worth of upside progess in mere hours.

 

[makloda]

Quote from austinp:
The tape went up from recent lows on thin air, overnight ramps with nil volume, open gaps and swiss cheese. When it comes back down on the next turn, it will wipe out days or weeks worth of upside progess in mere hours.

I read "history tells us we will have to retest the lows" all the time. Why is that? What rulebook says there must be another turn down before we test new highs?

Isn't a slow crawl up or a sideways grind just as likely as a retest of lows is?

 

[Comanche]

Quote from stock_trad3r:

I've been hearing the same 'weak volume' arguments for the past year almost every time the market trends higher. Meanwhile the dow is up 25%...

You have some rose colored glasses dude. Your stats even lie to you. From the 52 week low in the dow to right now, it is up 18.7%. your cheating yourself 6.3%.

 

[showyouwang]

makloda, practically speaking the existence of V-bottoms is rare and most of the time, long-term bottoms consist of double or even triple bottoms.

nothing is a definite in the market, but being traders we want to play the percentages.. so a retest of the low is likely to happen.

 

[austinp]

<i>"I read "history tells us we will have to retest the lows" all the time. Why is that? What rulebook says there must be another turn down before we test new highs?"</i>

The markets can do anything they wish, we all know that. From a probability standpoint, stock markets crushed lower on huge volume and filled all previous gaps.

Since then, price action was levered upward by Fed intervention, not a host of big-money players seeing real value for accumulation. The +100pt rise in S&P came on overnight gaps, fractional volume of the trip lower and sideways intraday inaction. Most of it was smoke & mirrors while stocks were closed for trading.

Does that seem like a strong, robust stock market poised to press higher? Or does it seem like a reluctant market rising in agony? Place your bets as you see fit... I'm an intraday player who is currently long right now until this trade ends, along with that ends my care about market direction

 

[stock_trad3r]

Although I'm bullish, but if the fed doesn't cut rates we could see those gaps fill quickly.

But the meeting isn't for awhile and the market has plenty more time to go higher so even if the fed doesn't cut or only cuts by 1/4 point the worst may already be over.

 

[makloda]

Quote from showyouwang:
nothing is a definite in the market, but being traders we want to play the percentages.. so a retest of the low is likely to happen.

I agree statistics and percentages matter. I wouldn't mind a retest or whatever the markets needs to do. I'll trade it either way. Just wanted to point out: While technical analysis and specifically volume analysis are great tools, nothing is for certain, not even an immediate retest (even more so if too many are looking for one).