This market is WEAK!!!

[scriabinop23]

Quote from makloda:

According to that theory, how are we ever going to see big volume on up days?

exactly.

but remember of those 95% long, there is a large percentage who don't trade actively (ie inst, long term stock and mutual fund holders).

so if you exempt them, then you get a better idea of long vs shorts.

 

[Comanche]

Quote from Pa(b)st Prime:

You're making a mistake in market mechanics.

A fund manager who became under invested at lower prices is a de facto short. In other words his next market action is that of a buyer. On the other hand there's many long term holders selling into this rally.

I'm a seller in the 80's and 90's. With contracting volatility, pressing 63's or some shit price like that is a low prob trade in my estimation.

But you're not accounting for real time market dynamics. That de-facto short fund is getting redemption requests, therefore he doesn't have the cash to invest, and is possibly being forced to make some liquidations.

 

[showyouwang]

No point in arguing about it, the market will prove who is right in the coming days.

 

[scriabinop23]

Quote from Comanche:

But you're not accounting for real time market dynamics. That de-facto short fund is getting redemption requests, therefore he doesn't have the cash to invest, and is possibly being forced to make some liquidations.

who's to say the fund getting redemption requests isn't the overleveraged long hedge fund that got killled, turned around, and is now caught -overleveraged- short?

hahah..

 

[Comanche]

Quote from showyouwang:

No point in arguing about it, the market will prove who is right in the coming days.

This for once on this site, doesn't seem like an argument at all. This may be the closest thread to a debate that ET has ever had.

 

[heidegger]

Should be profit-taking here. Should be more volume.

 

[Anekdoten]

If everyone saw the same thing there would not be a market as you need buyers and sellers.

I mean, come on this is trivial.

 

[scriabinop23]

Quote from heidegger:

Should be profit-taking here. Should be more volume.

who's taking profits?

shorts from 1480, 1520, 1560?

or longs from 1370, 1400, 1450?




maybe we've just found a temporary fair value with 'risk premium' factored in.

 

[makloda]

Here's Barton Bigg's view on the topic. From what I gather from the video, he feels more capital will be "hurt" by a slow grind upwards than an immediate re-test of last week's lows.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=481926246&play=1

 

[Pa(b)st Prime]

Quote from Comanche:

But you're not accounting for real time market dynamics. That de-facto short fund is getting redemption requests, therefore he doesn't have the cash to invest, and is possibly being forced to make some liquidations.

I'm not talking about hedge funds. I'm talking about mutual funds and those guy's ARE NOT seeing a dramatic up tick in redemptions. (not to mention they recieve passive inflows ever day) That's one reason I'm macro bearish. Investors are WAY to complacent. There's a time for all seasons though and my area to be anything more than a 2 minute short is 20 ES pts higher than here. That may change Monday but when I see threads like this it does little to make me think the market isn't overly short......