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This is why I love recessions
- Thread starter michaelscott
- Start date
Explain more about this board meeting. Details.
Quote from duard:
I just left a board meeting an hour ago and let me tell you it ain't pretty.
So yes go all in leveraged up to your gills. I myself am very defensive.
DBV POWERSHARES DB G10
Short-term trades
Metals and metal miners
Money Markets
and of course any other goodies that pop up.
I bought a whole bunch of EWJ puts for cheap. Japan is highly dependant on a strong US economy. Their exporters will be really feeling it if people stop spending due to whatever factors end up tightening the small fortune americans spend yearly on their handycams, Toyota cars and Sony playstations and stuff.
Quote from michaelscott:
http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/B...Stocks_L/threadview?bn=7535&tid=4041&mid=4041
I love this post from the yahoo message board.
Recessions only come around once every so often, but each time they arrive comes these great opportunities.
I really hope a recession comes. I hope its deep and painful where the stocks get pounded down into the pennies. I hope I can pick up McDonalds again for 12 bucks or Guess for 2 bucks. Maybe I might find a nice little stock that trades for 10 cents and ride it up to 2 bucks. It will be fun.
if you have to be in ressession to find good stocks, you should change your career. there are always 52wk low stocks in a bull market, if you need bargain.
Quote from michaelscott:
Explain more about this board meeting. Details.
Not dire but sales and contracts are slowing. The question that nobody has the answer: How slow and do we go into a full-blown recession.
Interestingly I think "things are different this time."
China is the inexpensive manufacturing plant of the US(and elsewhere for that matter). They have been accumulating record amounts of dollars which has had the effect of holding interest rates down. So the inverted yield curve is suspect as to the significance with regard to the recessionary environ. The impact of the housing slowdown and sub-prime fallout is just hitting the economy. Employment, inflation, job growth, and interest rates are low yet much of these numbers are surface numbers. Where is the job growth: Low paying and volatile service sector employment. Inflation worse than reported as the gov has massaged the number. Interest rates low but as mentioned this is artificial as the carry trade yen dollar and chinese accumulation of treasuries has kept rates low. If the chinese start dumping dollars and the carry trade unwinds further I don't see how the FED can lower interest rates. If they raise however due to inflation or to strengthen the weak dollar then the already hard hit housing, mortgage and finance sectors will be clobbered.
So my poorly thought out summary is that we are at an interesting crossroads and could end up in a recession which as alluded to appears to be quite probable. If the consumer gets scared as jobs get lost as housing and finance continue to take hits then well I suppose that will be the catalyst in addition to the possible telegraphed selling of US treasuries by the chinese.
The slowing sales trend is easily explainable. If someone believes that there is a chance of a recession in the future, then they wont go out and make new purchases.
I believe there is a chance of a recession, but I am not entirely sold on the idea. However, since there is at least a chance, I am less willing to spend and would rather play it safe. Trips to Europe, new purchases of large appliances, new cars, etc. are not on my list until we have more data on the issue.
I believe there is a chance of a recession, but I am not entirely sold on the idea. However, since there is at least a chance, I am less willing to spend and would rather play it safe. Trips to Europe, new purchases of large appliances, new cars, etc. are not on my list until we have more data on the issue.
Quote from duard:
Not dire but sales and contracts are slowing. The question that nobody has the answer: How slow and do we go into a full-blown recession.
Interestingly I think "things are different this time."
China is the inexpensive manufacturing plant of the US(and elsewhere for that matter). They have been accumulating record amounts of dollars which has had the effect of holding interest rates down. So the inverted yield curve is suspect as to the significance with regard to the recessionary environ. The impact of the housing slowdown and sub-prime fallout is just hitting the economy. Employment, inflation, job growth, and interest rates are low yet much of these numbers are surface numbers. Where is the job growth: Low paying and volatile service sector employment. Inflation worse than reported as the gov has massaged the number. Interest rates low but as mentioned this is artificial as the carry trade yen dollar and chinese accumulation of treasuries has kept rates low. If the chinese start dumping dollars and the carry trade unwinds further I don't see how the FED can lower interest rates. If they raise however due to inflation or to strengthen the weak dollar then the already hard hit housing, mortgage and finance sectors will be clobbered.
So my poorly thought out summary is that we are at an interesting crossroads and could end up in a recession which as alluded to appears to be quite probable. If the consumer gets scared as jobs get lost as housing and finance continue to take hits then well I suppose that will be the catalyst in addition to the possible telegraphed selling of US treasuries by the chinese.
Quote from ByLoSellHi:
Any true investor wants to see the markets get crushed.
Only fools want to see prices rise, making additional acquisitions less rational.
I have said here before that one of the best times to invest, which we may not see again for several years, was just prior to the 2nd Iraq War.
An idiot could've quadrupled their money had they went all in then, and anyone with half a brain would be up ten times.
So, for clarification, since you obviously have full use of your brain you are now a trillionaire due tosmart investing?