first esu settlement on 9/10 now this...
http://www.cnn.com/2002/US/09/12/ar911.sept11.lottery.ap/index.html
http://www.cnn.com/2002/US/09/12/ar911.sept11.lottery.ap/index.html
this is truely sick
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I thougt it was pretty weird too, but after thinking about it its not that crazy really, being only a 3 single digit drawing. I wonder how many times in the past that drawing has produced a number that was the same as the calendar date of its drawing, probably at least once every few years.
Odds are odds. The odds that any three digit number (that is picked twice in NY) is selected is 1 in 1000. Since two lotterys are held daily in NY (afternoon and evening), the odds are 1 in 500.
Now, the S&P odds are a lot more complicated. Suffice to say, you would need to really determine probability zones and ranges, as in a bell shaped distribution. However, for the S&P to close precisely on 911.00 x 911.25, when one considers the typical mean running range of prices for a 3 day period, that statistically might account for 1 in 20. This is because the distribution of outcomes falls on a bell-curve with extremes being on the lower probability ends. The mean for the day might be the highest probability.
However, what are the odds that these two events would take place within 24 hours of each other?
That gets complicated, because there is perhaps a 1/10 chance that the S&P could have closed at 9/11 on either side of 9/11. But if we assume that the only significant closing would be on 9/10 or 9/11, then the odds might be ... say, 1/10.
So, two odds (1/10 and 1/500) happening in a significantly close time period might be 1 in 5000 chance of that happening. It may even be worse odds than that.
I think we can safely say that odds like that aren't astronomical, but they do raise an eyebrow.
Now, the S&P odds are a lot more complicated. Suffice to say, you would need to really determine probability zones and ranges, as in a bell shaped distribution. However, for the S&P to close precisely on 911.00 x 911.25, when one considers the typical mean running range of prices for a 3 day period, that statistically might account for 1 in 20. This is because the distribution of outcomes falls on a bell-curve with extremes being on the lower probability ends. The mean for the day might be the highest probability.
However, what are the odds that these two events would take place within 24 hours of each other?
That gets complicated, because there is perhaps a 1/10 chance that the S&P could have closed at 9/11 on either side of 9/11. But if we assume that the only significant closing would be on 9/10 or 9/11, then the odds might be ... say, 1/10.
So, two odds (1/10 and 1/500) happening in a significantly close time period might be 1 in 5000 chance of that happening. It may even be worse odds than that.
I think we can safely say that odds like that aren't astronomical, but they do raise an eyebrow.