This is the last move for Crude --shaping up just like the wheat trade!

[BlueStreek]

5y

I appreciate your insight, it is helpful, and I don`t have a long-term opinion on oil, as there are too many variables too consider, do we start getting serious about sugar based car fuels like Brazil, do subsides stop, do economics dicate that Bejing slow down, and have a slight recession after the olympics, but one thing I do know is that there will be a massive correction in oil this year atleast 35 dollars, and I will capture that Delta---my take is sometime between now and October---options are cheap as hell, far out of the money, you have a fixed loss ratio, with huge upside, this is my kind of risk/reward trade.

 

[5yrtrader]

Yeah I tend to agree with you, it does seem like oil is a bit over-bought and I do think there will be a big correction, $35 dollars might be right, who knows. My question is from where? From right here? From $150? When will the government institute price controls? Bush won't do it, but the democratic congress might. Maybe they will even find a couple more massive oil fields that can keep the supply going for a while, which would bring prices down temporarily, but we will run out eventually. This is how markets work and oil is working fine, the higher the price the faster we will find a solution. To "blame" high oil prices on speculators is just dumb. If they are wrong they will pay for it, thats capitalism. All the environmentalists (not that there are any on this board) should be cheering for higher prices.

I am sure we will see big price corrections all the way up, a good trader would be able to capture these. So I am not agruing against ever going short, but this is a bull market and it isn't going to stop anytime soon.

5yr

 

[stock_trad3r]

The downside is maybe 10%

there won't be a blowoff top

too much demand, not enough supply

 

[The Kin]

Quote from stock_trad3r:

The downside is maybe 10%

there won't be a blowoff top

too much demand, not enough supply

Quit jinxing it.

 

[5yrtrader]

Bluestreek,

My comments are directed at you, just the general feeling I got from reading this whole thread.

5yr

 

[S2007S]

Quote from stock_trad3r:

The downside is maybe 10%

there won't be a blowoff top

too much demand, not enough supply

this means there will be blowoff top..

 

[Landis82]

Quote from robbie380:

and this makes it the top just because you are short? do you just like fighting trends with no real catalysts for them to end? and why am i asking when i already know the answer?

The ANSWER is that he doesn't TRADE.

He missed the entire 175 handle move off of the March lows in the SPX. All he did was "cut and paste" one post after another here on ET that would support his BEARISH BIAS . . . rationalizing why he couldn't pull the "trigger".

If he did actually put his capital where his big mouth is on ET (fighting one trend after another ), he'd be bankrupt.

His REAL job is here on ET.
He gets paid .10 cents per post in between taking classes at Central Florida U.

 

[Landis82]

Quote from robbie380:

[Bnothin like being in a trade and say stuff like "it should be here" and "i don't know where the top is" [/B]

Exactly.

These are the exact SAME remarks that he made when the Fed stepped in with JP Morgan to support Bear Stearns . . . saying that the market would have ( and should have ) been "a lot lower" if it hadn't been for the FED.

Blah, blah, blah . . .
Crying like a 2-year old that just had his candy bar taken away.

Just ridiculous.
He's obviously never heard the trading MOTTO:

"Our (job) isn't to question how or why, it is simply to sell or buy."

 

[Mercor]

Quote from Mercor:

This is the start of the thrid leg, it will last 10-15 trading days and top at mid 130's.

Understand in the USA $4.50 gallon gas is rough but doable.
It is in the thrid world where the demand is from that will choke on the price first

What a great call!

 

[Landis82]

Quote from S2007S:

Landis and Makolda do you really think I don't know how DCR trades, I have followed it since it was trading above $50 and wellllll before the 3 for 1 split, I know every single detail about DCR and I know on June 25th it stops trading, I know this, its a $3 stock, it makes up less than 1% of my portfolio, its a trade to see oil back below 110 over the next 3-4 weeks, if that happens DCR will be back above $4.00 without a problem....

sorry you guys think oil only moves one way, but guess what oil is in a huge bubble, and if you think its just going to keep on running while the economy slows you keep thinking that, the economy cannot put up with oil prices the way they are, eventually the consumer does weaken....COMMODITIES ARE IN A BUBBLE, WAKE UP!!!

Another month goes by and another month you lose money trying to PICK A TOP IN OIL and COMMODITIES.

I guess that the weatherman in Des Moines didn't know that Commodities are in a Bubble!!!
July Corn now over $7.00 a bushel.