This is the last move for Crude --shaping up just like the wheat trade!

[makloda]

"With oil hitting $120, there are some things about the energy markets that don't make much sense. Or maybe they do?"
http://www.forbes.com/technology/forbes/2008/0519/036.html

"An oil bubble to rival the Internet boom"
http://www.factset.com/websitefiles/PDFs/outlook/english/03-05-2008english.pdf

 

[BlueStreek]

It looks like China doesn`t need anymore oil for the next couple of months, so there demand is going to put a lot of extra crde supply on the market compared to the last 3 months.


Looks like the shit is about to hit the preverbial fan, we are going to see some 1.89 down days, but we are going to see some 4.90, and 6.50 down days coming up as the BIG BOYS all unwing positions at the same time, and smaller guys getting crushed along the way, with stops excelerating moves to the downside!

 

[stock_trad3r]

The 'bursting' oil bubble bubble won't be dramatic at these levels. How much downside could there be? 20% at most?

 

[timbo]

Quote from BlueStreek:

It looks like China doesn`t need anymore oil for the next couple of months, ....

Looks like the shit is about to hit the preverbial fan,...

China's inflation rate is absurd.

 

[The Kin]

I laugh at all your talk. Oil will be at a new all time high next week. And the week after that.

 

[timbo]

Quote from The Kin:

I laugh at all your talk. Oil will be at a new all time high next week. And the week after that.

It'll be tough to beat embargo rates from decades before.

 

[S2007S]

Quote from The Kin:

I laugh at all your talk. Oil will be at a new all time high next week. And the week after that.

 

[Cutten]

Quote from Mercor:

Had you asked every economist, scholar, advisor, 3 years ago, What would happen if oil ever went to $125 a barrell. All would have said a major world depression, unemployment at 20%.

Actually none would have said that.

 

[Cutten]

Quote from makloda:

Yes they said the same thing about $60 and $90 before. E

Which economist said unemployment would hit 20% and a major world depression would ensue if oil hit $60 or $90? I don't know of a single one, let alone a consensus.

 

[Cutten]

Quote from BlueStreek:

If there is one thing to learn from this, I always knew commodities were the most technically "inclined", i.e., technicals play a more relevant role--both as a predictor, and self-fulfilling prophecy b/c traders all know this notion; however I didn`t realize how many standard deviations a widely traded mainstream commodity could go, and even go against logical inferences--like dollar getting stronger, economic theory, price destruction, governmental response, building inventories, etc.----but they do say the last phase of a spec bubble----is the euphoric, irrational phase.


But on these crazy momentum plays like Crox, Peix, amd,any homebuilding stock----make sure you add just one more standard deviation from where your first instinct is that the momentum is overdone---as you may miss some trades----but your reward---increased profit, and taking less heat, will in the long run make up for these lost trades.

Why on earth would you use standard deviations to forecast market prices, when it has been widely known since at least the 1987 crash that market moves are not normally distributed?

If the normal distribution does not describe market price moves, then it doesn't matter if you wait 1, 2, 3 or 4 more standard deviations, you will still eventually get f*cked when an outlier move occurs.