This is the last move for Crude --shaping up just like the wheat trade!
- Thread starter BlueStreek
- Start date
CoT data came out today that updates us up to Tuesday 5/6 when oil was at $120. Amazingly, speculators as a group actually increased their short positions. This is unexpected in an uptrend. Typically at market tops, speculators are heavily long.
I'm not predicting any type of price movement. But this is really interesting stuff.
www.softwarenorth.net/cot/current/charts/CL.png
I'm not predicting any type of price movement. But this is really interesting stuff.
www.softwarenorth.net/cot/current/charts/CL.png
I've been watching the COT for the last couple of months and have also been amazed to see that the commercials just aren't at any shorting extremes and continue to be fairly long. In fact, currently the latest report shows them about 115,000 contracts away from one of the higher SHORT positions recorded back on March 11th, just a couple of days before crude had a short term peak and declined a whole $12 ( from $111 down to $99 ).
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/ch...&xhide_analysis=f&xhide_survey=t&xhide_news=f
Just incredible to see these kinds of figures up here at $120 per barrel oil!
:eek:
That's his problem.
He doesn't DO any homework!
He simply sits around in front of his TV set watching CNBC all day long and picks out little bits of information that goes along with his preconceived bias . . .
If he actually traded for a living ( instead of getting paid to post on ET all day long ) he'd be BLOWN-OUT by this move in crude since the double-bottom of late March.
But because he simply posts on ET ( and doesn't ever put his money where his mouth is ), he will never be at such a risk.
And yet you are unable to correctly identify what people are anticipating . . . this is confirmed by the FACT that you have been so very WRONG during this entire move up from the February lows in the oil patch.
All YOU do is ANTICIPATE a top that has still not occurred by any technical means of identification whatsoever. The "USO" is not only making daily and weekly highs, it is making new Monthly highs!
Take a look at the "USO" chart since the lows at 68.57 on February 7th. Please tell me how many times the "USO" declined more than 2 straight days?
Answer: ONCE.
(In the decline from 96.24 to 88.89 at the end of April. A four day decline )
That should tell you something about the trend, my friend. But for some reason, you just can't see it because you are not able to identify what the market is telling you in an ACCURATE manner.
My guess, is that you are unable to properly IDENTIFY the marketplace for crude because you have no background in technical analysis. In fact, from your posts I get the feeling that all you do is watch CNBC and that that is the extent of your doing "homework".
As a result, you have COMPLETELY MISSED a tremendous opportunity to make money. Perhaps you should learn how to use technical analysis to help you identify TRENDS in the market.
I REPEAT:
Out of 65 trading days since the LOW in the USO of Feb. 7th,
the USO has seen a decline of more than 2 consecutive days . . . ONLY ONCE!!!
And here we are now up at 102.00
That's a 48% move that you not only completely missed . . . but you fought the ENTIRE way!
:eek: :eek: :eek:
Look you guys on ET need to start listening to the Government. As they keep telling us there is no recession as we still have positive GDP growth. We also have low inflation at only 3%.
So what if oil is up a little bit $126/bbl the economy is strong so says Bush.
So what if oil is up a little bit $126/bbl the economy is strong so says Bush.
This got released on Friday and it shows that high prices for crude and fuel are ultimately going to hurt profits, growth, and cause even further demand destruction.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/24545051
The further you stretch the rubber band, the farther it snaps back the other direction.
Next week the shit hits the fan:
1) We either hit 130, and that`s it sell off hard or
2) We try one pop Monday morning, and then sell off hard or
3) We just start slowly but picking up momentum the entire week, ending up with some massive sell-offs as this FED-EX news states what the bears have been saying: equities and commodities, are overpriced and have to come down.
The reasoning is that the economy already has some head winds, and cannot sustain 120 dollar oil, so equities have to move down until oil comes down atleast to the 100 a barrel range OR Oil comes down, equities stay where they are, and get a slight bid if the economy starts picking up.
I think under any scenario it will be a very bad weak for any Crude longs, and they need to get out quick, (tight stops) once the carnage begins!
http://www.cnbc.com/id/24545051
The further you stretch the rubber band, the farther it snaps back the other direction.
Next week the shit hits the fan:
1) We either hit 130, and that`s it sell off hard or
2) We try one pop Monday morning, and then sell off hard or
3) We just start slowly but picking up momentum the entire week, ending up with some massive sell-offs as this FED-EX news states what the bears have been saying: equities and commodities, are overpriced and have to come down.
The reasoning is that the economy already has some head winds, and cannot sustain 120 dollar oil, so equities have to move down until oil comes down atleast to the 100 a barrel range OR Oil comes down, equities stay where they are, and get a slight bid if the economy starts picking up.
I think under any scenario it will be a very bad weak for any Crude longs, and they need to get out quick, (tight stops) once the carnage begins!