This is the last move for Crude --shaping up just like the wheat trade!
- Thread starter BlueStreek
- Start date
First of all, before Oil reaches 150, if it is anytime soon, the fed would have an emergency meeting and raise 50 basis points, or the Bush administration would start emptying the SPR, come on, if it goes up gradually over 18 months that is one thing, but this last move is too high profile, citizens will not stand for it, politicians would have to force the opening up of the SPR spickets, after all, at 727,000,000 it is a its all time highest level, so there is no need to keep this high, if oil is 150, there are already front page stories now, why can`t the integrated oil companies and refiners pass through the higher oil prices, b/c they know the public will not tolerate certain prices, that is why the crack spread is so narrow right now.
Utilizing the same logic, if oil gets near 150, all hel breaks loose politically, and action will be taken, shit democrats would be taking a drill to Alaska------all comes down to politics, and at 150, it will be the fed to the rescue/congress,spr, etc-----just like giving away cash cards to katrina victims----------squeeky wheel gets the grease!
So people calling for 200 are just talking their books!
Utilizing the same logic, if oil gets near 150, all hel breaks loose politically, and action will be taken, shit democrats would be taking a drill to Alaska------all comes down to politics, and at 150, it will be the fed to the rescue/congress,spr, etc-----just like giving away cash cards to katrina victims----------squeeky wheel gets the grease!
So people calling for 200 are just talking their books!
Quote from Landis82:
Try taking a look in the mirror my friend.
The real FOOL is YOU for fighting the trend time and time again.
You seem to believe that there wont be a correction anytime soon, as bluestreak said, and I agree, eventually someone will step in a do something. The consumer is already tapped out and $4.00+ gas isn't helping at this moment, many on cnbc think high oil prices are sustainable, they can keep saying that, but boy will they be wrong 12-18 months out when oil does break the spending habits of millions of consumers. You might as well welcome a negative GDP with super high inflation.
Are you long oil or oil stocks at this very moment? You have to own OIH, DIG, OIL or PXJ, or maybe XLE and PXE. I have heard its not cool to fight the trend but fighting the trend and sticking with it brings on great rewards. I know of a few fools who bought houses and tried to flip them for quick gains back in 2005 and 2006 and guess what, they got stuck with them, well just 2 weeks ago he finally sold it taking a $25,000 loss, thats after sinking tens of thousands of dollars into it. Well as you can see everyone always carries that same mentality in bull markets and more often bubbles, well im not, im going against the trend and anticipating a great correction sooner than later. Keep thinking what you want but as we all know bubbles ALWAYS correct.
i have a bunch of dug at 29.90, it will be a profitable trade, the range even going against me is from 29.50 to 30.50 give or take, so that is not an issue with me..........already traded dug at these levels bought at 30.00 sold at 33.60 when xom missed.
I have various strikes of uso puts in july-october going to catch the big move down, or lose money.....calculated risk!
I have various strikes of uso puts in july-october going to catch the big move down, or lose money.....calculated risk!
I dont know about when the upward trend will reverse nor do i care. It's a fool's game trying to win that argument.
Looking at the technicals of uso, there has to be a pullback very soon after such a huge gap from 91 to 100 in just 5 days. Whether that pullback becomes a trend reversal or a pause, is anyone's guess.
Looking at the technicals of uso, there has to be a pullback very soon after such a huge gap from 91 to 100 in just 5 days. Whether that pullback becomes a trend reversal or a pause, is anyone's guess.
when trying to pick a top, or get a nice pullback, use options with plenty of time........you have fixed loss, without the noise of futures that will crush you going short!!!!
Here's a study on the effects of crude oil spiking to $120. It was published in 2006.
http://www.ms-ds.com/downloads/westcott_report.pdf
"The more severe event envisioned in the scenario
designed by safe for the World Economic
Forum will likely cause a 25% decline in global
stock market valuations, temporarily reducing
global equity wealth by about $10 trillion (from
about $40 trillion today to about $30 trillion). Assuming
a 4% wealth effect, this will reduce global
consumer spending by roughly $400 billion."
-> Looks like we have another 15% downside in the MSCI
World Index to go?
"Transportation companies (trucking firms,
package delivery firms, local delivery firms,
etc.) will begin to cancel services, scale back
promised delivery schedules, and many firms
would simply declare bankruptcy."
-> Isn't the Dow Jones Transports index close to all
time highs?
I specifically loved this part:
"Thousands of businesses in many sectors
of the economy will declare âforce majeureâ and
break contracts. There will be massive waves of
legal suits and a surge in bankruptcies."
->
http://www.ms-ds.com/downloads/westcott_report.pdf
"The more severe event envisioned in the scenario
designed by safe for the World Economic
Forum will likely cause a 25% decline in global
stock market valuations, temporarily reducing
global equity wealth by about $10 trillion (from
about $40 trillion today to about $30 trillion). Assuming
a 4% wealth effect, this will reduce global
consumer spending by roughly $400 billion."
-> Looks like we have another 15% downside in the MSCI
World Index to go?
"Transportation companies (trucking firms,
package delivery firms, local delivery firms,
etc.) will begin to cancel services, scale back
promised delivery schedules, and many firms
would simply declare bankruptcy."
-> Isn't the Dow Jones Transports index close to all
time highs?
I specifically loved this part:
"Thousands of businesses in many sectors
of the economy will declare âforce majeureâ and
break contracts. There will be massive waves of
legal suits and a surge in bankruptcies."
->
Quote from makloda:
Here's a study on the effects of crude oil spiking to $120. It was published in 2006.
http://www.ms-ds.com/downloads/westcott_report.pdf
"The more severe event envisioned in the scenario
designed by safe for the World Economic
Forum will likely cause a 25% decline in global
stock market valuations, temporarily reducing
global equity wealth by about $10 trillion (from
about $40 trillion today to about $30 trillion). Assuming
a 4% wealth effect, this will reduce global
consumer spending by roughly $400 billion."
-> Looks like we have another 15% downside in the MSCI
World Index to go?
"Transportation companies (trucking firms,
package delivery firms, local delivery firms,
etc.) will begin to cancel services, scale back
promised delivery schedules, and many firms
would simply declare bankruptcy."
-> Isn't the Dow Jones Transports index close to all
time highs?
I specifically loved this part:
"Thousands of businesses in many sectors
of the economy will declare âforce majeureâ and
break contracts. There will be massive waves of
legal suits and a surge in bankruptcies."
->
I agree 99.9% of what that says, you have to understand oil has been trading above 120 for about 2 weeks now so this will slowly start to take place if oil continues to trade above 120 in months to come. Up to 125 at this moment....