This is the last move for Crude --shaping up just like the wheat trade!

Supply worries push OIL to $124
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7389482.stm


Oil prices have added 400% since 2001, with traders betting that rampant demand from China to power its economic growth will not be fully met because of production problems in key oil-producing nations, including Nigeria and Iraq.


I don't know why people like to swin against the tide. Oil is the lifeblood of our universe.

Oil already had its $10 retrace from $120 to $110. Short term $135 should be tested before the retrace back to $129 area. Trend is up however way you look at it.

This isn't the real estate bubble that was supported by corrupt lending practices.

Oil guru T-Boone pickens predicts $150 Oil short term. Who am I to disagree with a guy making $1.5 billion a year trading oil futures.

To each his own....
 
WallStWizzKid you bring up an interesting point. Crude Oil is a commodity that has a limited supply, much unlike equities like IPOs in 1999/2000. The supply there was virtually unlimited as more and more garbage was brought public and soaked up by the market like a dry sponge, until it didn't.

three-bubbles_3.png

Source: http://bespokeinvest.typepad.com/
 
Quote from Ivanovich:

Chart ends at 4/23, doesnt it? I can't see for some reason on my screen.

Additionally, any speculation at all (and there is a considerable amount) means that speculators are adding to the price of oil, right?
More...

You're right to a point. Speculators are net long as they have been all year. So there is something of a premium in the price due to them.

The chart ends at 4/29 when crude was at $115. It shows that during the move up from $100 to $115 speculators actually decreased their long positions. It's really unusual to see such a strong move without speculators contributing.

Someone could have made a solid argument that there was a large premium due to speculators in early Jan. or mid March. But the numbers don't show that now. The premium now is much smaller than it has been.

It also leaves the door open for much higher prices if speculators as a group become very bullish.
 
Quote from WallStWhizKid:

Supply worries push OIL to $124
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7389482.stm


Oil prices have added 400% since 2001, with traders betting that rampant demand from China to power its economic growth will not be fully met because of production problems in key oil-producing nations, including Nigeria and Iraq.


I don't know why people like to swin against the tide. Oil is the lifeblood of our universe.

More...

i don't really disagree with your main points, but all trends end and all bulls have sharp corrections within the ultimate move.

given your logic, it just goes up and the textbook says pullbacks are in measures of 10, so that's all you need to know- kinda simplistic.

as to world energy demand... there is elasticity in demand. oil/gas is highly subsidized by the Chinese govt and many others- keeping the price artificially extremely low to the end user- this will not go on forever. where it isn't, even with their currencies going up vs the dollar, consumers around the world are feeling all the inflation (energy and esp. food). worldwide inflation isn't exactly a recipe for runaway growth and discretionary spending- chokes off domestic spending in these countries to go with the slower growth of exports.

point being that all things are interrelated and the term 'economic cycle' isn't obsolete- just ask las vegas and miami condo speculators...
 
In the worst hurricane season, Oil went to $70 from high $50s. Why would this season push it up by full $50?

There are some who did not call the bottom right and missed buying at the lows. They are pushing up the price of oil because it acts as a resistance to stocks moving higher.

We will have to revisit the lows again to get these specs to stop.
 
Quote from The Kin:

Crude to $150 by June 1. Easy.

$200 if any meaningful hurricane this season before end of year.
More...



yep, possible of course, $5.00 at the pump, that should bring strong consumer sentiment and GDP back to 2-3%. This is just getting hilarious. All those rebate checks will do nothing for the economy as energy and food prices eat it right up.
 
By the way, oil bulls tune into Kudlow, he is having a special on $200 oil saying the economy will do just fine, I have to think what a FOOL he is......
 
Quote from stock_trad3r:

Oil is easily going to 200

there is huge globalist demand and the war in Iraq will continue for decades.
More...


An easy $200 with $6.00+ at the pump, great for this economy, food prices will soar even higher, by then a gallon of gas will be higher than minimum wage...

This will be the greatest bull market, maybe with $200 oil can bring dow 15k+ now that would be awesome.

:D
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top