This is the last move for Crude --shaping up just like the wheat trade!

Quote from Mercor:

This is the start of the thrid leg, it will last 10-15 trading days and top at mid 130's.

Understand in the USA $4.50 gallon gas is rough but doable.
It is in the thrid world where the demand is from that will choke on the price first

So what is the real oil play, short EMs? Setting up for a failed retest of the top in EEM? I think the trade has possibilities.
 
Quote from S2007S:
My DUG is doing great today by the way, a few people laughed when I took the position, Im averaged down down and have positions in my long term account and short term account..
Let's recap:

1. You're long DUG - an ultra short Oil/Gas ETF - averaging into a broken chart making new 52w lows.
2. You're long some airline, which is basically a synthetic oil put. Needless to say, another terribly broken chart.
3. Your long DCR which is a short crude oil ETN. Chart a disaster. Down 10% today.

Here's a trade suggestion: Why not go long some USO deep in the money puts? Can't hurt to pack on a couple more short crude trades just to 'diversify' a little :p
 
Quote from sumosam:

That's an oversimplication. The same argument could be made for housing/real estate/gold/agriculture. Oil is cyclical, and is tied to the USD. Oil was not going up that much, its just that the usd was in a free fall. Oil up to-day, as usd down. usd is heading back up. Oil usage comes down in recession. I'm short oil, and will happily wait for the reversal.


maybe it is an oversimplification, but it seems to me with the rapid growth of china and other companies we're not producing anymore oil, so long term it will keep going up. houses can be built, real estate developed, and corn grown, but of course oil in non renewable...demand is only going to grow over time and supply isnt. IMHO
 
Seems to me to be more of a when to short rather than a where.

Once we get through the summer towards late July early August is my thought. Not that I really have any clue what I am doing in the oil markets, however.

And for the record, if I do go short, I'm using puts. Despite how insanely expensive they are right now (and likely to get more so).

How high it gets before there - beats me. No rhyme or reason that I can see.
 
No reason it has to fall precipitously and pretty unlikley given the fact that the recession already seems to be over, it is just as likley to find a new plateau which is why I prefer a play on the effects of high oil. Early days yet though, I agree with you on that.
 
Quote from jonbig04:

maybe it is an oversimplification, but it seems to me with the rapid growth of china and other companies we're not producing anymore oil, so long term it will keep going up. houses can be built, real estate developed, and corn grown, but of course oil in non renewable...demand is only going to grow over time and supply isnt. IMHO

Don't kid yourself.

$120 per barrel oil creates all sorts of opportunities to drill and explore, and to do so with new technology.

For example, Mexico is due to exhaust their oil reserves at current production rates solely because they refuse to allow foreign companies into their country to "partner-up" with Pemex.

That's not a reflection of a lack of supply. That's a reflection of a bureaucratic mess in the Mexican legislature that hinders their ability to grow their economy in the 21st century.
 
Quote from Mvic:

... given the fact that the recession already seems to be over...

This statement will go into the ET annals for use later.:D

I noticed in the Goldman Sachs report on what's happening in the crude market they say that although US gasoline consumption is down (or will be going down, or whatever) that nobody cares because it's apparently the mid part of the refinery crack that is really in demand world-wide -- Diesel, Jet Fuel, etc. -- Probably too late to short airlines that failed to hedge their fuel costs, huh?
 
Quote from piezoe:

This statement will go into the ET annals for use later.:D

I noticed in the Goldman Sachs report on what's happening in the crude market they say that although US gasoline consumption is down (or will be going down, or whatever) that nobody cares because it's apparently the mid part of the refinery crack that is really in demand world-wide -- Diesel, Jet Fuel, etc. -- Probably too late to short airlines that failed to hedge their fuel costs, huh?

:) I drank the Koolaid about a month back, the good news is that the effects are only temporary :)
 
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