This is the end. We are witnessing collapse of the global economy

[themickey]

Does this mean you favor a bull run?

The news media is painting a very negative picture of corona, hence why my emotions say it's not a bottom, however technically it appears to be.
Hard to imagine the market racing up with so much financial mess atm, high unemployment.
I put my money down on my signals, not my emotions, so I went in long quite considerably, anyhow, it's on record my decision, later we can look back on it.

Yup, that was my post on Saturday after going long on the Friday.

 

[Nine_Ender]

That bottom on Monday "felt" a lot like NQ's call back at end of May/beginning of June last year. The only sticking point on this will be the awful data and earnings that will be filtering through the system until the end of calendar Q2 of this year. That's a long time for bad shit to come, as opposed to the May drop, which was just about tariffs.

The TSX has a heavy weighting in our big banks, mining, and energy. The big banks got super cheap at the "bottom". Gold tends to do well in a crisis. Our energy sector was already fire sale it's went to far less then fire sale. So I'm unclear what's supposed to go lower on the TSX at 11200 ( or the 11600-11700 area I called when markets were halted at 9:30 am ). That's my theory anyways and the early results are quite good the market rebounded massively last Tuesday biggest one day move up since the year 1933.

Note I am not referring to US indexes which are still at a mid point in recent years prices. The TSX went to year 2010 levels.

 

[orbit23]

I am also bullish short term. I think next 2 day could be one of the best for the stock market, ever. Reason being is FED has substantially increased their balance sheet and market looks like a bottom. It seems like they have absorbed the selling(for now), and bought everyones shorts. People shorting without a stop loss is a good bottom signal, not to mention FOR THE FIRST TIME we PUMPED on BEARISH news(jobs reports!!).

However, market will catch up with the damage done to the economy sooner or later. It's just looking for the most efficient path, but destination is known(down big time - how could it not?).

 

[themickey]

ASX today. Up 7%

 

[orbit23]

ASX today. Up 7%
View attachment 223473

Wow this looks fantastic, couldn't have asked for more. This could easily continue higher up from here.

Though, I find it rather scary that global indices are jumping up and down 10% on a daily basis like some shitcoin.

 

[wrbtrader]

I am genuinely curious, how the hell will we get out of this mess?

The current economy is heavily consumer based, and pretty much everything that has to do with consumers has literally DIED overnight.

Restaurants DEAD
Pubs DEAD
Aviation DEAD
Travelling DEAD
Cruiseships DEAD
Shopping DEAD

And pretty much every business is running on debt. The cashflow went from the highest it's ever been to 0. ZERO. NULL. NADA!!!!


How can the economy keep running?

I guess the best we can do is try to keep the infections at a minimum and try to restore things to normal, but the outlook is not bright until summer (it seems like the virus is likely to be seasonal), and then it could come back the next year.

It's going to be a tough 1-2 year before a vaccine comes out, i tell you that. And even afterwards... It's going to be very hard to get the economy back on it's feet. I assume governments will start printing enormous amounts of money, potentially causing inflation and at the same time, the assets could be in deflation since the supply could overheat the market(everyone looking to sell at the same time, without any buyers).

Any ideas? How the F# will the economy sustain itself?

I'm assuming you're a member of this forum because you're a trader.

You should then just trade, make some money and try to make the best of your self isolation unless you're one of those "social people" or living with others impacted by the current chaos.

Simply, worry about what you can control at home because we can't really do anything else outside of the home.

wrbtrader

 

[mlawson71]

Personally, I don't have a problem with the self-isolation as I've always been pretty introverted. But I can see how it would grate on others.

 

[volpri]

A paper factory blew up..to smithereens. Down came floating the New York Time, the Washington Post, don’t the the stimulus bill, and all the medical journals.

 

[LacesOut]

When a house is on fire and burning down it ain’t time for the fire department to hold a vote on what to do (democratic processes..etc). No sir, it is time for the fire chief to become extremely autocratic and bark out the orders and expect them to be obeyed. No dicking around.

There is a time and place for autocratic leadership. NOW is the time and NOW is the place.

Christ this is some scary shit that I want no part of.
Why are people begging to have their liberties taken away? based on so little information??

 

[hhiusa]

Christ this is some scary shit that I want no part of.
Why are people begging to have their liberties taken away? based on so little information??

The better question is why people are thinking this is business as usual and continue buying?

When was the last time they had to resort to storing bodies in coffins because the coroner's officer too full?
When was the last 3.28 million people were unemployed from a flu? And if you say the Spanish Flu just to be a smart alex, well that was more than a century ago, so not business as usual.

Greece, Spain, Italy, Cyprus ... are financial insolvent. Greece has the highest of the first world nations with 176% debt-to-GDP. The Fed has said this was only Phase III. Phase IV is already underway. If we pass a $2 trillion bailout every two weeks, we will have a debt greater than Greece in 14 weeks or 3-1/2 months.

At that rate, by July, the US would have the highest debt-to-GDP in the world. By the time you reach Greece's or Italy's level, you start defaulting.