The first 30 min strategy is very good and it works. Today it worked too, in fact it would work great with a 62 FR setup I proposed here some time ago, but even without it. Yes, you need to be flexible and seek new ways to improve your strategy in order to adapt it better to ever changing market conditions. That's why I believe it's better to have more than one entry setup even within the same bigger framework as, for instance, the first 30 min breakout.
This is not fun...
- Thread starter daytr8r
- Start date
The first 30 min strategy is very good and it works. Today it worked too, in fact it would work great with a 62 FR setup I proposed here some time ago, but even without it. Yes, you need to be flexible and seek new ways to improve your strategy in order to adapt it better to ever changing market conditions. That's why I believe it's better to have more than one entry setup even within the same bigger framework as, for instance, the first 30 min breakout.
Hi wally,
Which opinion are you surprised is so strongly established and gets perpetuated?
Also, when you say any time is good for trading...
I agree.
However...I prefer the trade the time periods when my trade methodology is more profitable.
Simply, if my trade methodology is consistently profitable at a particular time of the trading day and not profitable at another particular time of the trading day...
THATS A TRADING EDGE that should be exploited.
In other words...dont fight your profits.
Knowing when not to trade is arguably just as important to knowing when to trade.
What is perpetuated is that traders continue trading during time periods they know that consistently take their money or give back their profits via their particular trade methodology.
Simply, its critical a trader knows when they make money and when they dont and to not trade when they know its a time of day when they tend to lose their money.
Traders that are profitable ALL DAY are special, far and few between.
I am not one of them. Therefore, I know when its time to bank my money...call it a day (stop trading) based on how my trade setups work.
Wally, if your able to profit ALL DAY because your "flexible enough" no matter what time of the day it is...more power to you.
In my case...there is nothing wrong with knowing when to trade and when not to trade based on a traders own trade results and not based on anothers traders results.
This is something that should be perpetuated.
Here is my entire previous message.
Quote from NihabaAshi:
Ditch,
I completely agree...in fact...its been that way for years
It will be that way tomorrow, the following day and the days after that...more often than not.
NO HINDSIGHT stuff...IT WILL OCCUR.
Traders that dont understand how the market cycles from one intraday time period into the next...will have a very difficult time in this market.
I dont know if the starter of this thread was trading the chop because he never gave any specifics...
but if he does and trades the chop consistently...trading for profits will be extremely difficult.
Making a living do such will be evenmore difficult.
At least for me it would be...reason why I put a lot of energy into avoiding the chop and concentrate instead on major trend reversal signals.
I also trade with a reduce size the pullback breakouts to catch a point or two when the trend continues after the pullback.
When I am unsure...I rarely trade and spend my time surfing the internet or talking up a storm in the chat rooms.
The usual Maria and her pals on CNBC talk
P.S. Some good looking gals on Bloomberg, European and Asia financail networks.
NihabaAshi
Wally...
Of course you can make money in the afternoon.
In fact, a trader can make money any time of the trading day.
However, there are certain times of the day where TRENDS tends to be stronger.
Just the same...there are certain times of the day where TRENDS tends to be weak and easily susceptible to developing into choppiness or tight-trading ranges.
Also, I know for FACT what most traders are taught is to NOT TRADE the first hour and to wait for some sortuv BREAKOUT after 30mins of market action.
We (Ditch and I) are suggesting to trade it...if you know how to do so.
Further, there are different types of BREAKOUTS.
Note: My type of BreakOut trade setups are less than 10% of my overall trade setups (trend reversal trade setups)
Wally...you seem to be grouping them all into one type of basket.
I trade reversal signals and I trade pullback breakouts...not the type of pullback breakouts your most likely thinking about.
I am guessing here...but I think the type of BREAKOUTS your talking about is something like this...
Look at the ES 1min all session chart on Wednesday Dec 18th at about around 1248pm est with a peak @ 893.00
It then pullback from that peak...the BREAKOUT I think you could be talking about may be to trade that peak (to go Long if and when price breaks above).
To me...thats a high risk trade. I am not saying it wont work. I am simply saying its too risky for me and its the type of trade I think your talking about.
Please correct me if I am wrong about what you were talking about.
However...if you look at about 1258pm est...that particular candlestick has a body range greater than the 3 previous candlesticks body range and closed above the 5eMA when the prior 3 candlesticks were below the 5eMA during that pullback.
Simply, that 1258pm est candlestick is a much safer entry for me and such an entry I call Pullback BreakOut based on the 5eMA.
Note: I have other criterias involved but I just wanted to keep it simple for explaination.
I made this post to make sure you have a better picture of what I was talking about in my explaination of a Pullback BreakOut and not about something I was not talking about.
The goal for traders is not to find something that works all the time.
The goal is to find several good repetitive trade setups that a trader knows its weakness and strenths (when to use it and when not to use it). In addition, the goal is to stick to the trading plan.
Many roads to profits and once you find one...exploit it.
NihabaAshi
Isn't it interesting: One person says "X" works, another says it doesn't. Who's right? Both of course. There are always multiple ways the skin the proverbial cat in any market conditions, but; and this is a big but: your methodology has to fit your personality otherwise the train wreck will indeed be spectacular.
very true
Here we go again. Please, no one ask her/him/it about her/his/its "way".
I agree, but I would say it is more a matter of discipline than a personality. I do not believe that there is a strategy for every personality, but with enough discipline and perseverance you can make trading profitable no matter what your strategy is as long as it is not completely off base. Even things as simple to execute as mechanical systems require some discipline, admittedly less than discretionary methods. You simply have to stick to them even if your intuition is telling you to override them.
So true.
And it is amazing how, when you feel there is no hope.... you give up. Then things turn around and your system is profitable, but you are not because you didn't take the signal(s) because things have been going badly, and other people tell you how bad the current market is and you agree, so you don't trade....but you should have..... It becomes a self fulfilling prophecy...You think things are bad so they become bad.
I am trying a new attitude. I will robotically follow my system signals. If I lose all my trading money then so be it. It will be a kind of relief. I can go back to regular work and make real regular money. By freeing my mind this way I'll let my system do it's thing and probably do well. And if I don't, then I'll do well because I won't waste any more time on this game.
*********************************************
The future chaos is determined by the current chaos, in a chaotic manner.