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This is it gentlemen! Batten down the hatches!! Big moves ahead
- Thread starter bond_trad3r
- Start date
Quote from bhardy307:
Instability cause panic. Panic causes a rush back to the US dollar.
If there is to be instability, Short CAD and Long USD!
Ok, let's see now. You posted this last weekend. What is the net change in the CAD/US exchange rate from then to now ? I'm not 100% sure but its probably a losing trade. So you found something that was temporarily down for a couple of days and rebounded fairly quickly. Hell, its almost a random week on that exchange rate.
Has instability REDUCED this week ? Was there massive PANIC in the markets ?
No. Let this be a lesson in overreacting to news when trading.
Quote from Nine_Ender:
Ok, let's see now. You posted this last weekend. What is the net change in the CAD/US exchange rate from then to now ? I'm not 100% sure but its probably a losing trade. So you found something that was temporarily down for a couple of days and rebounded fairly quickly. Hell, its almost a random week on that exchange rate.
Has instability REDUCED this week ? Was there massive PANIC in the markets ?
No. Let this be a lesson in overreacting to news when trading.
Ok, you silly fellow. Read. "If there is to be instability". This is a hypothetical! There WAS instability, ever so briefly, but it cooled off. The dollar went up, then right back down again when cooler heads prevailed. Panic causes a rush back to the US dollar. The panic calms. People exit the dollar. If the panic had persisted or worsened, the US dollar would have gone up, but people calmed down and the US dollar fell. Everything happened exactly as it should.
The specific news changing events occured yesterday. Saudi Arabia reported that they would boost oils production, reducing supply fears. Also, rumor about Libyan leader being shot. If you were watching at the time this was reported, oil immediately went down, dollar went down, and stock markets improved. Today was a relief rally almost everywhere.
I repeat, the dollar did exactly as expected given the news. Initial panic caused a rush to the US dollar. Fear subsided; people exited the dollar.
I repeat, the dollar did exactly as expected given the news. Initial panic caused a rush to the US dollar. Fear subsided; people exited the dollar.
Quote from bhardy307:
The specific news changing events occured yesterday. Saudi Arabia reported that they would boost oils production, reducing supply fears. Also, rumor about Libyan leader being shot. If you were watching at the time this was reported, oil immediately went down, dollar went down, and stock markets improved. Today was a relief rally almost everywhere.
I repeat, the dollar did exactly as expected given the news. Initial panic caused a rush to the US dollar. Fear subsided; people exited the dollar.
You don't get it do you !!! Literally hundreds of choices and you want to short the Canadian dollar while the Oil price is rising. Please, get real. Fundamentally you were wrong and it was pretty random moves all week in the midst of the gradual strengthening of the Canadian dollar due to commodity prices.
Prove me wrong. How many real dollars did you earn on this trade this week. I'd venture you didn't even play it. I did play my own traded but it was long calls in Gold stocks. Much more appropriate trade for a few days.
Quote from Nine_Ender:
You don't get it do you !!! Literally hundreds of choices and you want to short the Canadian dollar while the Oil price is rising. Please, get real. Fundamentally you were wrong and it was pretty random moves all week in the midst of the gradual strengthening of the Canadian dollar due to commodity prices.
Prove me wrong. How many real dollars did you earn on this trade this week. I'd venture you didn't even play it. I did play my own traded but it was long calls in Gold stocks. Much more appropriate trade for a few days.
Reread the orginal post:
"Instability = Profiability!
Place your bets, gentlemen.
Long CAD"
Long CAD was the wrong call. Short CAD in response to that news was the correct call for the next open market day. What I said happened.
1. CAD went down.
2. USD went up.
3. TSX bounced up briefly and then went down.
4. DOW went down.
There was no statement made about long term move on CAD. It was a short term call, and I was right on all 4 points above.
Making a long term call on a currency is kind of silly. Too many things can change. However, I am medium term bearish on the CAD because inflation will force interest rates up in the USA, and I am not confident in the recovery of the US economy. To much quantitative easing! Its a false recovery. I hope I am wrong!
I also said this, and I believe it!!
"Go look at what happened during the banking crisis. Keep in mind that the US markets are closed today. Also, the Middle East crisis isn't large enough yet to cause a real panic and a rush back to the US dollar.
I was assuming that OP feared a major crisis, not a little thunder storm in the Middle East."
If a real long lasting hell break loose in the middle east that truly interrupts oil production, there will be a panic and rush back to the US dollar (the reserve currency). Oil will be up according to supply and demand equation, but down because of the increased value of the US dollar since oil is priced in US dollars. More valuable US dollar means that anything priced in US dollars will deflate.
Look at www.kitco.com. It shows you which part of the price change is due to change in USD, and which part is due to supply and demand.
"Go look at what happened during the banking crisis. Keep in mind that the US markets are closed today. Also, the Middle East crisis isn't large enough yet to cause a real panic and a rush back to the US dollar.
I was assuming that OP feared a major crisis, not a little thunder storm in the Middle East."
If a real long lasting hell break loose in the middle east that truly interrupts oil production, there will be a panic and rush back to the US dollar (the reserve currency). Oil will be up according to supply and demand equation, but down because of the increased value of the US dollar since oil is priced in US dollars. More valuable US dollar means that anything priced in US dollars will deflate.
Look at www.kitco.com. It shows you which part of the price change is due to change in USD, and which part is due to supply and demand.