This is HUGE bull market

"Right... and where do most small investors put their money? I DO agree that you have to be careful in this market, because you are right, the economic indicators aren't that strong... but hey... bull markets climb the 'wall of worry' right? When everyone feels good about the market, it's time to SELLLLL!

Grossly overbought? I see an awful lot of MorningStar 5 star value stocks still. I wouldn't call it overbought when Nasdaq hasn't really begun a true rally, and the DOW has only just now hit a new high after doing what it's done for the last 10. "
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Thanks for the feedback.

My thoughts...most "small investors" have been specuating in real estate lately...and dont have much cash due to a liquidity crunch. Real wages are decreasing and most "individual cash" is offset by a mountain of debt and an iliquid assets that is losing value.

"when everybody feels good it is time to sell" BINGO the bull market has been going for 3-4 years not with a big unforseen rally at the end...hence time to sell.

Grossly overbought...right. As far as the morningstart 5 star list..i was touting that when i was a dumb broker 7-8 years ago. strangely enought, the 5 starts were hit harder than the 1 stars! true story. I still feel bad....ugh.

Nasdaq-i may agree with you, i see more potential here than in the S&P and DOW.

Dow- it is just now recovering..and forming a "double top" which is a strong bearish formation. also, the "weighting" measure they use in the index is different form the rest...this is why companies like GM can push the index up so easily. but dont count on GM any longer...higher interest rates, slowing economy lower wages....less cars being sold.
 
the other problem is that people use the 90's paradigm for their view of the market

they think S&P but not SPEWI

they think nascrack, but not Russell and Transports, etc.

this aint yer daddy's bull market
 
Tomorrow's report is very important. Expecting to disappoint, but hoping we'll be on mark. Compared to today's report, the chances on getting by w/o negative sentiment is not likely. Hopefully I am wrong.
 
tomorrows report only means something if its good for market. the last 30 econ reports over the past 5 weeks haven't touched the market. if i were a betting man i'd say anything close to the # the market runs as all the bad #'s will be forgotten
 
Quote from dac8555:

THE TRENDLINE ON THE MAJOR INDICES IS BROKEN
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I have the S&P right at the 3-month trendline, do you have a chart you could share?

On my charts it recently busted the upper channel to the upside, and reversed, and the hit the lower channel today.
 
IMHO: The market is running out of steam (momentum is weakening), and I'm expecting a lot of selling in next 1~1 1/2 months. If you're trading on volatility, maybe it's a good time. But looking out of 3~6 months, it all depends on earnings expectation. A huge bull market? still 50/50.:cool:
 
Quote from Trader_XYZ:

IMHO: The market is running out of steam (momentum is weakening), and I'm expecting a lot of selling in next 1~1 1/2 months. If you're trading on volatility, maybe it's a good time. But looking out of 3~6 months, it all depends on earnings expectation. A huge bull market? still 50/50.:cool:
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i'd take those odds. 50/50 on a Huge Return?

:)
 
Quote from whitster:

the other problem is that people use the 90's paradigm for their view of the market

they think S&P but not SPEWI

they think nascrack, but not Russell and Transports, etc.

this aint yer daddy's bull market
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I like to use the russell 3000. To me it is the true indicator of the overall market, and it sure does have a nice uptrend.
 
Quote from joeyata1:

tomorrows report only means something if its good for market. the last 30 econ reports over the past 5 weeks haven't touched the market. if i were a betting man i'd say anything close to the # the market runs as all the bad #'s will be forgotten
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I think this is probably right. The short term up trend has been broken but the intermediate term trend is still extremely bullish and we've had 4 or 5 down days in a row. Shorts will be eager to lock in some end-of-week gains that have been hard to come by for the last 3 - 4 months. Also, it looks like we're set for a bounce off of the 20 day MA on many of the major indices.

Considering how crappy the economic news has been, it's a testament to the market's strength that it didn't get hit harder over the last week. That shows that the market still interprets nearly all news as bullish or at least harmless to the bull trend.

However, if the market starts pushing lower regardless of news (starting with tomorrow's econ numbers) we may finally get a downtrend. It will interesting to see if the equity markets ever begin to interpret the extremely inverted yield curve as a sign of doom for the economy instead of a sign of a coming Xmas present or New Years present from Santa Claus Bernanke.
 
It is virtually impossible to have a "huge bull market" in a climate of deteriorating economic indicators. We are just now completing a nice bull market that started in 2003. We are still in a bull phase and i'm not going to predict when that will end, and frankly i don't care. I'm a trader and the couple investment portfolios i manage have mostly collared positions. So either up or down is fine with me. But i do want to warn you guys that the bull market we have had since 2003 has lasted about 3 years now. It can go on a while longer, but not "5" more years, without a significant correction, most likely a mild recession. So Dream on. If the economy going forward was looking stronger, then yes the bulls could rage on. But it is not looking stronger, it is weakening significantly. Our "good times" have been purchased with borrowed money. Our credit is still good, and we could presumably borrow even more and extend the good times further out, but it looks like, thankfully, that's not going to happen.
 
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