This Forum overtrades options

[bwolinsky]

A stop of 10% reduces profit factor to 5.22 and decreases net profit by $10,000 to $69k.

It also obviously reduces APD to 1.6729, and here are the columns for that:


1.672938225
Profit ($) Drawdown ($)
6062.5 -162.5

46462.5 -6375

-2487.5 -3237.5

-2062.5 -2125

16762.5 -125

-3450 -3475

2812.5 -1875

3875 -1525

2212.5 -2487.5

-4012.5 -4300

3612.5 -700

1512.5 -1800

2812.5 -2750

-4487.5 -4775

-2937.5 -4150

 

[bwolinsky]

Quote from atticus:

I can't read the majority of the rows and my vision is 20/10 uncorrected. You don't have an avg profit in %? Why not ask me to guess the amount of your SSDI check?

Average profit <b>is 10.97%</b> for the backtest with a 10% stop.

But the average profit percent for the one without stops would be a 16% stop and probably not functional.

Stand by.

 

[bwolinsky]

The backest with a 16% column makes $75,825 and the profit factor is 7.6295.

APD is 1.97 and here are the columns with the APD stat:


1.977893368
Profit ($) Drawdown ($)
6062.5 -162.5

46462.5 -6375

-3387.5 -3700

18162.5 -1287.5

3350 -3112.5

2812.5 -1875

3875 -1525

2212.5 -2487.5

-400 -4712.5

1512.5 -1800

2812.5 -2750

-7650 -7675

225 -987.5

 

[bwolinsky]

Quote from atticus:

I can't read the majority of the rows and my vision is 20/10 uncorrected. You don't have an avg profit in %?

I really don't know what you mean by that.

The row's text are the same size as every other font on these pages.

 

[atticus]

Quote from bwolinsky:

A stop of 10% reduces profit factor to 5.22 and decreases net profit by $10,000 to $69k.

It also obviously reduces APD to 1.6729, and here are the columns for that:


1.672938225
Profit ($) Drawdown ($)
6062.5 -162.5

46462.5 -6375

-2487.5 -3237.5

-2062.5 -2125

16762.5 -125

-3450 -3475

2812.5 -1875

3875 -1525

2212.5 -2487.5

-4012.5 -4300

3612.5 -700

1512.5 -1800

2812.5 -2750

-4487.5 -4775

-2937.5 -4150

All I can do is laugh. Thanks Beau.

 

[bwolinsky]

Quote from atticus:

All I can do is laugh. Thanks Beau.

Well, I forgot I could also just sum the average profits column, and didn't really understand your question, but the one with a 16% stop is the average profit of the system, with an 88% win percentage before stops were added of 75% which is about equal to my pairs system but far less robust.

The APD only drops by .1 if you add a stop so there's still no point in the stop since we had a trade stop out in the most recent short.

So are you still dancing by the fire deciding whether to sing kumbaya or Michael, row your boat ashore?

Have we reached Holy Grail Status yet?

HGS? Yes? No?

Come on. You can't let me do all these and not invest, atticus, but I'm sorry, you'll be very disappointed in the indicators and unless you know how to program or have read the manual you will not be able to produce backtests like this because indicators are just that, and strategy code is a custom work you'll either have to do yourself or hire a programmer at $100 per hour to do for you.

Did you see how the program immediately re-entered because the oscillation was still at a lower high? So you see, my code is superior to the indicators because it is a strategy, and I suggest if you ever want to do this you'll need to have experience with easylanguage but more importantly you'll have to read Proflogic's manual Price Physics Final Edition and then you'll truly understand what a great gift it is that you're about to be given.

 

[atticus]

Quote from bwolinsky:

Well, I forgot I could also just sum the average profits column, and didn't really understand your question, but the one with a 16% stop is the average profit of the system, with an 88% win percentage before stops were added of 75% which is about equal to my pairs system but far less robust.

The APD only drops by .1 if you add a stop so there's still no point in the stop since we had a trade stop out in the most recent short.

So are you still dancing by the fire deciding whether to sing kumbaya or Michael, row your boat ashore?

Have we reached Holy Grail Status yet?

HGS? Yes? No?

Come on. You can't let me do all these and not invest, atticus, but I'm sorry, you'll be very disappointed in the indicators and unless you know how to program or have read the manual you will not be able to produce backtests like this because indicators are just that, and strategy code is a custom work you'll either have to do yourself or hire a programmer at $100 per hour to do for you.

You did find the Grail... Crude during the most volatile period in decades. After all this you couldn't fit the algo to produce better than a 5PF with a 10% stop?

10%?!

I wouldn't give you change for a dollar.

 

[bwolinsky]

Quote from atticus:

You did find the Grail... Crude during the most volatile period in decades. After all this you couldn't fit the algo to produce better than a 5PF with a 10% stop?

10%?!

I wouldn't give you change for a dollar.

Well, I don't understand the incredulity, atticus. I mean the program's right there.

And since you will never ever be able to do what I have just done in the last 20 pages, I am resolved to the fact that it is impossible to discuss trading innovation with anyone in this forum without them thinking someone's out to get me, or he's dishonest, or he doesn't know what he's doing, or he thinks he's got something great but I know it's not really the HG yet so I won't pay attention to all of the data I just took the time to show you on a Friday night after only talking to my new girlfriend for less than 15 minutes for the first time.

I appreciate skepticsm, but if you aren't ready to committ funds to it, I know you will not ever be able to use Sentinel 4 confidently, and this proves it, because this is my code. I made it. You'll get indicators but I can tell you by your lack of understanding you won't ever be able to do what I've just done, and until you've done your first 168 hour genetic optimization of your own custom strategy using the indicators, you won't understand how to use the code he might give you, either. Especially if you don't read the book Price Physics Final Edition entirely, but I don't think he'll give you that without payment.

 

[atticus]

Quote from bwolinsky:

A stop of 10% reduces profit factor to 5.22 and decreases net profit by $10,000 to $69k.

It also obviously reduces APD to 1.6729, and here are the columns for that:


1.672938225
Profit ($) Drawdown ($)
6062.5 -162.5

46462.5 -6375

-2487.5 -3237.5

-2062.5 -2125

16762.5 -125

-3450 -3475

2812.5 -1875

3875 -1525

2212.5 -2487.5

-4012.5 -4300

3612.5 -700

1512.5 -1800

2812.5 -2750

-4487.5 -4775

-2937.5 -4150

Toss out the biggest winner and loser and recalc. I am amazed that you got a $46k winner on one lot of QM! You starring in Mission Impossible next?

 

[bwolinsky]

Quote from atticus:

Toss out the biggest winner and loser and recalc. I am amazed that you got a $46k winner on one lot of QM! You starring in Mission Impossible next?

I mean it's obviously a lower high. Multicharts genetic optimizer is a perfectly capable genetic algorithm to train automatons with by using that feature, and exactly what it is supposed to do, because I use 5 variables of the code that effect the performance of the strategy using 1 in 1000 range out of 5 for 1000^5 or 1000000000000000, 1 with 15 zeroes after it.

The only way to do this is to give it all of the data, use a population size of 1000, minimum generations of 225 and maximum generations of 250 with proximal convergence and basic elitism enabled and that is how far ahead I am than you, but getting the code is a start, so you'll probably go through a trial even if you do and still not be able to turn a profit this large with the indicators.