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This Forum overtrades options
- Thread starter bwolinsky
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Quote from bwolinsky:
Did you read the blown up one?
Here is the Multichart.
Yeah, I am looking as I am typing this. There is no stop. You HUP, hold until profitable. The first longs after the huge drop took huge (nearly 10 handles) of heat.
Where's the APD stat? On the second page perhaps? THERE IS NO STOP. The risk of the on either of the first two trades is greater than any single profit taken by a factor of 10.
Quote from atticus:
Yeah, I am looking as I am typing this. There is no stop. You HUP, hold until profitable. The first longs after the huge drop took huge (nearly 10 handles) of heat.
Where's the APD stat? On the second page perhaps? THERE IS NO STOP. The risk of the on either of the first two trades is greater than any single profit taken by a factor of 10.
No, atticus, it's not that there couldn't be a stop, but that if you understand the methodology you can be confident enough in your trading without one, because it is very likely that if you add those stops the program will still recognize the same oscillation that got you into the trade in the first place, so that's why stops don't always provide a solution for risk in this case, and you'll find that if you are a fast learner or have ever used easylanguage that this is very difficult to do, or even understand.
Aside from things like May 6th events there aren't any commodity futures that did what the markets did that day, and, even though I hate to admit it, it is one of the reasons I was always leery of trading it that what I've produce is truly unique to me and my CTA.
If you'd like tell me what you think the stops and targets ought to be and I'll show you how that changes the performance. There are stops, they just are set so high that they aren't functional, so pick a percentage for your stop and target and then we'll see. I can definitely do that change if you give me your general rule of thumb stop loss and target for oil.
QM is a $12.50 per tick with $.025 tick values.
(I'm done; you may reply now).
Perf scripts are not writable in Easylanguage, but if you produce a backtest, you can sum the profits column by the absolute value of the drawdown column.
I will calculate that statistic. Hold on.
Quote from bwolinsky:
No, atticus, it's not that there couldn't be a stop, but that if you understand the methodology you can be confident enough in your trading without one.
Aside from things like May 6th events there aren't any commodity futures that did what the markets did that day, and, even though I hate to admit it, it is one of the reasons I was always leery of trading it.
If you'd like tell me what you think the stops and targets ought to be and I'll show you how that changes the performance. There are stops, they just are set so high that they aren't functional, so pick a percentage for your stop and target and then we'll see. I can definitely do that change if you give me your general rule of thumb stop loss and target for oil.
QM is a $12.50 per tick with $.025 tick values.
The APD stat of that QM backtest is 2.0653, and I guarantee you that is the first statistic I ever looked at when I was developing the theories of Price Physics, and I'm very positive nobody even knows how to do that, but the trades list gives a profits column and drawdown column per trade, so that's what I'm doing summing the profits by the absolute value of the drawdown.
Quote from atticus:
No way in hell is the APD 2 at the PF you propose. It's not possible.
You should use a stop = the average per trade gain.
Here are the columns. Do it yourself.
Profit ($) Drawdown ($)
6062.5 -162.5
46462.5 -6375
14362.5 -4675
2812.5 -1875
3875 -1525
2212.5 -2487.5
-400 -4712.5
1512.5 -1800
2812.5 -2750
-7425 -8637.5
I guarantee you the sum of the profits divided by the negative sum of the drawdown column is 2.0653, but calculate it yourself if you must.
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