This Forum overtrades options

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Quote from bwolinsky:
It's not that I don't understand it but that I don't know any off the shelf technology that'll let you attempt to code these things into a backtestable platform. I've never seen it, and all I've seen is possibly some option pro platforms that could calculate IV or your delta hedge ratio and I know some will even keep your position at the right hedge ratio but that is the absolute limit to what I think can be done right now.

Sure you can use Binomials or monte-carlo path dependent simulations but unless there's some data then testing just to prove where volatility might go to still won't tell you the direction you really need to be trying to catch. It's not so much I don't understand them, I've never seen any options strategy analysis performance summaries...ANYWHERE.
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Notice that I didn't say that you don't understand. I have no reason to believe you don't. My point was that, as per your own admission, you don't know what to do with them.

What I am really shocked at is what sle has said a couple of times. How is it possible that you possess enough intellectual arrogance to tell people who have been trading vol for a while and are pretty good at it that what they do isn't viable? That's just absurd...
 
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Quote from bwolinsky:

Hmmm. Again, that assumes edge which implies some kind of timing strategy. I hope you'll at least do yourself a favor and ask for a demo account to sim trade before you start. But I bet you've probably been trading awhile anyway so it might just be too late.
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:eek: :eek: :eek:


maybe you can give Michael Jordan some tips on Bball!
 
Yeah, the premise of this thread is analogous to a 18yo interviewing for a Summer job at an FCM and stating, "I know a lot about options". It would have been funny if I hadn't been the kid stating the aforementioned.
 
There all like five guys from my neighborhood that ending up being millionaires at the CBOE before the age of 25 with a high school degree. This idea that having an advanced degree makes you a better trader is bunk for the most part. There are some really bright traders out there, however having a phd doesn't mean you know how to trade. How many math guys have got chewed up in 2008. Show me one fund that was modelling 80 on the vix back then.
 
Quote from newwurldmn:
Sle is probably one of the most volatility savvy people in world and he is kind enough to share that knowledge with people like you.
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I am blushing!
 
bwolinksy, you're lucky that sle is even debating you. To post so much without being able to figure out which ET user is a pro and which one is not is the mark of someone who doesn't have a clue about their context. Be careful when you trade.

Hang on, I found a Wikipedia article about your ilk:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning–Kruger_effect

"The Dunning–Kruger effect is a cognitive bias in which unskilled people make poor decisions and reach erroneous conclusions, but their incompetence denies them the metacognitive ability to recognize their mistakes.[1] The unskilled therefore suffer from illusory superiority, rating their ability as above average, much higher than it actually is..."
 
Quote from kinggyppo:

There all like five guys from my neighborhood that ending up being millionaires at the CBOE before the age of 25 with a high school degree. This idea that having an advanced degree makes you a better trader is bunk for the most part. There are some really bright traders out there, however having a phd doesn't mean you know how to trade. How many math guys have got chewed up in 2008. Show me one fund that was modelling 80 on the vix back then.
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Most likely too poor to afford an education, or living within cities they didn't want to leave or also couldn't afford to live in without jobs. Probably no academic achievements to speak of either.

Typical choice for HS graduates if they have an in this would definitely be a great opportunity. Obviously worth skipping college then.
 
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