This crash needs to play out- it’s dangerous !

Concinnity said:
To be fair it is about perspective too. I mean markets been showing signs of topping since December on some indexes and NQ is down 2300 points from highs. From an investing and equities perspective I can understand your point.

But from a day trading perspective that's $46,000.00 per NQ contract and still $4600.00 on a mnq of base movement. Of course someone isn't going to catch all of that I understand.... but that's just the base movement to illustrate the severity of the move in day trading perspective. There's tons and tons of swings back and forth to allow you to capture a lot of the points though.

Also, the probability is that markets go lower. Sure, they might not, but that is what probability says from the metrics I use. The structure has been building for a while on all markets and we completed and set up the bearish structure on RTY weekly in december and than the structure on NQ Daily more recently on 01/07/2022, now it's just playing out.

All drops and pops are not equal at all, there's a lot of different ways and factors to separate them. Anyone who thinks this drop isn't anything serious and has the same probability to bounce as high and hold as well as previous drops, they are very likely to be in for a surprise. Of course I could be wrong and we rip 2000 NQ points next week, but that is just not the likely outcome at all.
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Huge waves intrady.
 
Here is what has been happening over the past two years. With the covid, we have a lot of stay-home retail traders. Also with $0 stock trading, retail trading is very huge. But if you look at the "markets", they are just the few "markets", never the broad markets. Large techs, meme stocks, SPACs, and some index ETFs. Most of the stocks not in the indexes did not participate.

Whenever there is any market rally, those hot stocks lead the way. Any crash like today, those hot stocks lead the crash too, then the "cold" stocks follow suit. But those not-so-hot stocks did not participate much in the buy-the-dips rallies. So the institutional stock pickers under-perform stock indexes, like nasdaq 100 and S&P 500.

We really need to break this kind of mentality. But I do not know when and how. Stock markets may perform better after some of the retail traders exit.

But as long as stock trading is still $0 cost, things probably won't change much.
 
Concinnity said:
To be fair it is about perspective too. I mean markets been showing signs of topping since December on some indexes and NQ is down 2300 points from highs. From an investing and equities perspective I can understand your point.

But from a day trading perspective that's $46,000.00 per NQ contract and still $4600.00 on a mnq of base movement. Of course someone isn't going to catch all of that I understand.... but that's just the base movement to illustrate the severity of the move in day trading perspective. There's tons and tons of swings back and forth to allow you to capture a lot of the points though.

Also, the probability is that markets go lower. Sure, they might not, but that is what probability says from the metrics I use. The structure has been building for a while on all markets and we completed and set up the bearish structure on RTY weekly in december and than the structure on NQ Daily more recently on 01/07/2022, now it's just playing out.

All drops and pops are not equal at all, there's a lot of different ways and factors to separate them. Anyone who thinks this drop isn't anything serious and has the same probability to bounce as high and hold as well as previous drops, they are very likely to be in for a surprise. Of course I could be wrong and we rip 2000 NQ points next week, but that is just not the likely outcome at all.
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Why would a daytrader hold nq or mnq for that much loss? Per contract? That should have been dumped way before reaching that loss amount. Reversed and go with market.
 
volpri said:
Why would a daytrader hold nq or mnq for that much loss? Per contract? That should have been dumped way before reaching that loss amount. Reversed and go with market.
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Sorry if I am not being clear. My comment was in regards to people who say we're not in a bear market until we drop "X" and/or saying no way to distinguish certain drops from other drops and etc. I was just giving the base movement as an example of the potential profit to be made by being bearish / short(again obviously not on one trade, nor am I saying someone would short the tippy top down to the bottom, I don't think that at all, but there are tons of back and forth moves to take within that base amount of movement).

From a day trader perspective the market has been bearish for a while, do not need it to fall 5000 NQ points before I classify it as bearish or being in bear territory... like I don't fully get the point. Having to see the move, to take the move defeats the whole purpose of trading and having an edge, at least from my perspective. Anyone can say the market is bearish after they see it drop a million points.

Just my opinion and perspective. I am sure plenty disagree and see it differently and that's fine.
 
References a bear market has nothing to do with daytrading. Each individual day is its own bull or bear market for a daytrader. But at the same time to be ignorant of the overall market trend can be fatal to daytrader.
 
SunTrader said:
References a bear market has nothing to do with daytrading. Each individual day is its own bull or bear market for a daytrader. But at the same time to be ignorant of the overall market trend can be fatal to daytrader.
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I understand and I could be missing the point and being the dumb or ignorant one. It doesn't make much practical sense to me the way people discuss a bear market. Again, if you have to see the move, to take the move what is the point?

For a micro example, let's just pretend you and me are day trading together the NQ. At 9:30am it starts to move up and goes up 4%. Than at the highs I tell you, yup market bullish today brother, I know it is because we got a 4% up move :). Would you not be like.... hmmmm that's nice thanks pal, but what is the practical reality of even telling me this. Wouldn't the point be for us to be positioned to catch the move?

To me it's the same as the macro example where people say "No sir not in a bear market yet". It's like how far do we have to fall down, before you get or want to call it a bear market. Than what are you going to do at that point? Sell your longs 30% down? Open up a short position after a 30% drop?

It just makes no practical sense to me, other than to make conversation. If I am missing something or you have a different perspective, please point it out to me. Genuinely don't know, it's just not how I am accustomed to trading at all and probably not a route I would be interested in.
 
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