This bull market is just getting started

[dividend]

This bull market is just starting to heat up
Just starting to get bubbly

This is a VERY exciting time

NYSE margin debt about to blow up like crazy

With so many unemployed... the huge # of unemployed will turn to daytrading, and this will be the retail money that comes in

It will be like 1999, except BIGGER because while in the past you had to be at home (on the computer and modem) in order to trade, now they will trade from ANYWHERE from their tablet. Intraday volatility will be back in a big way.

Doctors will trade in between patients
6 year olds will pick stocks like TWTR and go up 500% and think they're geniuses
High school students will trade from tablets during class and make $10,000 a day and buy the new lamborghini


>>Large-cap core mutual funds have slightly outperformed the S&P 500 SPX year-to-date, returning 20.4% vs. the market at 19.8%, said the Goldman Sachs report. Hedge funds, however, have continued to lag, returning only 3.5%. Long/short equity hedge funds have done slightly better, though they’re still behind the major indexes and mutual funds. They’ve returned 11.8% for the first nine months of the year.

clearly it does not pay to be short or hedge at all
the only people making money are 100% long
or better yet 400% long with leverage

 

[Swan Noir]

Well, typically the market, after a hiccup or two, does quite well for six or eight months after the Fed begins to tighten. I realize that is counter intuitive but history bears it out.

I suspect that in the first quarter of '14 the QE regime will begin to subside. Admittedly this is a new type of "tightening", if in fact it is a tightening. Whether this market will continue to advance is less than crtain but it is probably the way to play it.

 

[Maverick74]

Quote from Swan Noir:

Well, typically the market, after a hiccup or two, does quite well for six or eight months after the Fed begins to tighten. I realize that is counter intuitive but history bears it out.

I suspect that in the first quarter of '14 the QE regime will begin to subside. Admittedly this is a new type of "tightening", if in fact it is a tightening. Whether this market will continue to advance is less than crtain but it is probably the way to play it.

Swan, he is just trolling. The post was in jest.

 

[Swan Noir]

Yes ... that's why I didn't get into the high school Lamborgini conversation etc. but I think the common wisdom that a QE taper is instant doom is potentially nonsene. I don't carry anything overnight so in fact it doesn't affect me.

I've been meaning to PM you with a questions about volume in CL. I know what I see must be just the tip of a very large iceburg and I'm wondering how I get to see the iceburg and, if in fact, it matters?

Quote from Maverick74:

Swan, he is just trolling. The post was in jest.

 

[xelite777]

Quote from dividend:

This bull market is just starting to heat up

Who told you that?

Just starting to get bubbly

Stay away from Champagne then

This is a VERY exciting time

Profitable trading has nothing to do with excitement.

NYSE margin debt about to blow up like crazy

Who cares?

With so many unemployed... the huge # of unemployed will turn to daytrading

So who will deliver your pizza then?

Intraday volatility will be back in a big way.

Bigger profits for astute traders then, where is the problem ??

Seriously, when was the last time you made big money in a FLAT market, unless you are selling options?

Doctors will trade in between patients

You mean my root canal appointment has been cancelled ??

High school students will trade from tablets during class and make $10,000 a day and buy the new lamborghini

Sure, sure : Buy a tablet, get an Internet connection and make 10 grand a day sitting on your sofa watching TV. Sign us up Dividend!

 

[Bob111]

mmm....the volume and ranges are telling a me totally opposite story....


http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=iwm&ql=1

my favored IWM..use to be 1-5M premarket..now-100-500K or so(half of that are 'prearranged off the market trades). 40-50M daily average..as of today -scrapping 21M w 30M average..yeah..boom and bull time..i gues VIX have to go negative then..

 

[Maverick74]

Quote from Swan Noir:

Yes ... that's why I didn't get into the high school Lamborgini conversation etc. but I think the common wisdom that a QE taper is instant doom is potentially nonsene. I don't carry anything overnight so in fact it doesn't affect me.

I've been meaning to PM you with a questions about volume in CL. I know what I see must be just the tip of a very large iceburg and I'm wondering how I get to see the iceburg and, if in fact, it matters?

Volume in crude and all of the energy complex is tricky. Most of the money is in cash and swaps. And the volume you see on the outrights is just that...outright, not the spreads or the cracks, etc. The swaps market in the energy complex is huge. That's really where the action is because that is how you move the physical. You basically have physical, then EFP's (exchange for physicals) which link the futures with the cash and then the cash swaps market. It all forms a triangle.

 

[fx0011]

IMO the bull market has just ended

 

[Maverick74]

Quote from fx0011:

IMO the bull market has just ended

Usually when people have "opinions", the market does exactly the opposite. She's a cruel mistress.

 

[Swan Noir]

That fits with how I have long understood it. At this point I'm trading CL exclusively and four years into my trading career am finally consistently making money that folds instead of jingles. My guess is I will never go back to ES -- although that never say never construct is a good one -- and will probably never trade time charts again.

I'm obviously always looking for ways to get better at it and wonder if seeing what goes on behind the curtain -- cash and spreads would help. I know as an independent I won't have access to those markets nor the capital to execute there so I expect that even if I could see them it would be useless.

Quote from Maverick74:

Volume in crude and all of the energy complex is tricky. Most of the money is in cash and swaps. And the volume you see on the outrights is just that...outright, not the spreads or the cracks, etc. The swaps market in the energy complex is huge. That's really where the action is because that is how you move the physical. You basically have physical, then EFP's (exchange for physicals) which link the futures with the cash and then the cash swaps market. It all forms a triangle.