This bubble is rediculous!

noddyboy · Dec 20, 2006

Quote from HolyGrail:

Nah, I'll just wait for you to tell me how much money you made shorting a bull market.

I don't think I ever have talked about the money I made or lost....Not in a public forum. But we all look alike with our yellow smilies.

whitster · Dec 20, 2006

EX-ACT-LY

in the LONGTERM, the market regresses to a mean, and securities are (generally) reasonably priced.

that's why, in the longterm, it's good to buy weakness and sell strength.

however, in the short term, stuff can stay "overbought" for a REALLY REALLY long time. it's absurd to short merely cause "it's gone up a lot and is overbought"

i DID do a few shorts today and some longs today. but that's intraday scalping

but all this heroic "calling of the top" is massive stupidity

it's an exercise in ego, not trading

ByLoSellHi · Dec 20, 2006

Quote from kc11415:

attributed to Keynes, and sage advice for those trying to call tops/bottoms:
"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent."

Calling a top way too early and acting upon that call is at least as bad as noticing the correction too late.

Greenspan's irrational exuberance speech was in 1996. If someone had gone short based on those words of wisdom from a supposed expert, they'd have bled to death.

Is a correction due? Probably.
But must a person need or intend to predict the timing or severity? Perhaps one might position onself to benefit from the continuing rise (however irrational) and also remaining watchful and ready to respond when the correction comes. Perhaps they won't catch the correction right away, but the amount they'll gain from riding the continuing growth while it lasts may offset losses from not catching the correction right away.

If you don't understand the difference between directional & non-directional strategies, perhaps this would be a good time to learn. If you're pre-occupied with the timing or severity of reversals, then that might suggest exclusive focus upon directional strategies. If that works for you, then more power to ya. However, if you're sweating it, then perhaps it might be time to take your game to the next level. Caveat: The game at that level does not tolerate posers. You better make sure you do your homework, or you may end up on the wrong end of the Niederhoffer - Taleb spectrum. Merton & Scholes learned that the hard way at LTC.

John Maynard Keynes was brillliant.

Great supplementation.

HolyGrail · Dec 20, 2006

Man that was some correction today. 6 points on the dow, and almost 2 points on the s&p and nasd. I just don't know if I am emotionally ready to go through another day with that kind of corrective action.

Mvic · Dec 20, 2006

SP only up 0.2% in Euros this year, is it really due for a correction?

basis · Dec 20, 2006

Quote from Mvic:

SP only up 0.2% in Euros this year, is it really due for a correction?

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN WE HAVE A WINNER.

The first person who has hinted at the fact that the reason stocks go up is because THEY'RE NOT DOLLARS.

No matter, though. I'm sure BlueStreek made his $2k out-trading all of us in his paper options account.

noddyboy · Dec 20, 2006

Quote from HolyGrail:

Nah, I'll just wait for you to tell me how much money you made shorting a bull market.

Anyway, for the record, I called the top correctly for an intraday trade today, and it closed at the low.

HolyGrail · Dec 20, 2006

Quote from noddyboy:

Anyway, for the record, I called the top correctly for an intraday trade today, and it closed at the low.

That and 4 bucks will get you a cup of coffee at starbucks.

hels02 · Dec 20, 2006

Noddy... You were very close (was at 11:30), so you deserve a cookie!

I SERIOUSLY did not expect a down day today. But I'm mostly positioned now to hold thru the holidays, so I'm happy.

If it does go down this week, I think we'll have a much better January, because our 'correction' will be out of the way. Without that correction, Jan is going to stink, so I'd rather have the correction now than later.

Hydroblunt · Dec 20, 2006

Quote from DrEvil:

I read recently that in 1929, both Rockerfeller and Jessie Livermore declared the end of the bear market.

Funny, I read recently that Rockefeller was a very good buddy of JPMorgan who was bragging at parties how he caused the 1929 crash by forcing margin calls all over.

This is not a bubble by today's standards, not even close. Idiots like BlueStreek do not even have the brains to look up how stocks moved in the tech bubble or the late 1980s P/E bubble.