Thinking out loud.

[momoNY]

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IBD data, almost always right shows weekly hi for SPY$258.91, same number daily, weekly.[1-[10-2019, lunch]Easy to hit $260,weekly, Ray Dallo said ''we saw a shift'' .SPY + QQQ still below 5o,200dma,but looks like QQQ is going up, again weekly,strong seasonals.NOT a prediction.

SDOW is still above 50 day +200 moving average as of lunch, =bear move, bear market, for SDOW, which may not be liquid enough to daytrade.

Actually I use starting today, IB (Interactive brokers) It is very accurate. I don't rely too much on the spiders, because I don't trade them, I traded ES and I going back to it with a lot of fear, I use SPX for my analysis
Usually, when the market is weak we don't have a two week break before a pullback; if it breaks before any noticeable pullback, it means the move is rather strong and one has to be very careful.
I am thinking of shorting ESH19 around 2597 with stop above 2606 (Using only regular trading hours). This should go down to visit 2440; the question is when? Only a reversal from here down to 2560 can do it.
If we trade above 2597 for some time, then it will go past the 2605 resistance.
I think it would be wiser to wait until a reversal is in place to go short. A bear market rally still can bankrupt you.
Thanks for stopping by Murray.

 

[momoNY]

Taking a look at the charts again, I think tomorrow will trade lower then recover to end near the open. Today's high will hold tomorrow and it will be broken next week, probably on Monday then we will start reversing down. I have to confess that I am a little lost here, it may be the beginning of a range bound trading market for few weeks.​

 

[momoNY]

I am thinking of shorting ESH19 around 2597 with stop above 2606 (Using only regular trading hours). This should go down to visit 2440; the question is when? Only a reversal from here down to 2560 can do it.
If we trade above 2597 for some time, then it will go past the 2605 resistance.
I think it would be wiser to wait until a reversal is in place to go short. A bear market rally still can bankrupt you.
Thanks for stopping by Murray.

I was a little greedy, I put a sell order at 2598.75, (overnight) rather than the 2597 as said, it did not fill, it reached 97.75. I am back at messing around with my initial targets, not a good sign.
Now I will be looking to go long when it comes close to 2560.

 

[momoNY]

Freaking old habits die hard!! First day trading ES, over freaking traded again. I called every single turn but ... I put in 16 trades, and was more than $500 in the red, where I am supposed to put in only two trades one long at 81 and one short at the high. I managed to find some courage and shorted at 2593 with two lots (very bad habit again) and was lucky to get out around 86.5 to get back in the green (+222). When am I going to wizen the f* up?!
This is a pull back, it should go down to around 2580 and bounce back up; we will very likely close off the lows of the day, but I doubt it will break yesterday high, but it will do so Monday. Will try to go long around 2582 and risk 6 points to target 18 points. If it does not come down there, good for me, ending the first day in green is very important for the moral.

 

[momoNY]

There is fake try to breakout right here. It will go down big then come back.

 

[momoNY]

There is fake try to breakout right here. It will go down big then come back.

My last call did not help in any way, yesterday high held very well, but selloff anytime. Monday will go down before attempting to break yesterday high, which can hold probably for the foreseable future.
I ended the day +$48 after 45 trades (This is my biggest biggest problem. I work for IB)!!!! I scalped short near the close and the selloff I expected did not happen; I am not going to hold over the week-end, so closed everything.
I think this rally is loosing steam. We should start going down next week; may be a little push higher then go down. If we break the support at 2577 we will go visit 2440.

 

[momoNY]

If we break the support at 2577 we will go visit 2440.

Actually for now, it is the support at 2560 that we need to break to reverse the trend.

 

[Handle123]

My last call did not help in any way, yesterday high held very well, but selloff anytime. Monday will go down before attempting to break yesterday high, which can hold probably for the foreseable future.
I ended the day +$48 after 45 trades (This is my biggest biggest problem. I work for IB)!!!! I scalped short near the close and the selloff I expected did not happen; I am not going to hold over the week-end, so closed everything.
I think this rally is loosing steam. We should start going down next week; may be a little push higher then go down. If we break the support at 2577 we will go visit 2440.

I just started reading your thread, did I read right you not profitable after 20 years or battling on profits? I normally don't read threads when traders guesstimate "where it going to go", see this as pointless unless it has to do with a longer term trendline, could be a pause or outright reversal. But that is often how did price get to this area, was it slow drifting or was it very fast to this area or did price bounce in this area handful of times than stalls.

The only area we can manage reasonable well is risk, and this area if done correctly takes great deal work, what is chart showing before a possible entry could negate a signal, shows perhaps too much risk, better to delay signal and wait for 60% retracement of current wave most often happens. MAE and MFE I test most weekends for recent changes.
https://www.tradingheroes.com/mfe-and-mae-deconstructed-and-how-they-can-help-your-trading/

You did 45 trades? Are you a scalper? If I traded entire day, maybe I do 70 trades in a day, 80% are scalps of 1-3 tick goal and 20% runners as to be able to hang on for a larger trade is a crapshoot. Plus, I average down on all trades, but I do not recommend.

If you having discipline problems, I recommend 3-4 times a year of hypnosis, I been doing this for some 28 years, helps me for discipline and other areas of my life. I hired people in 2010 to start doing automation and have over a dozen systems, which I had it started long before. I have a partner now who has other than trading full time job, so on one system, "we" been at it 26 months, should have it ready for real time this year in summer, this a is great deal of answers one needs for all the problems that can arise. Over 50k lines of code, WHEW!!

I would recommend this when done, you run it to do 300% then another 2 times before doing real time, every week or two weeks, usually have to tweak as volatility changes. My style of trading whether very long term to 20 second bars when volatility high, except for areas I keep track of before start of the day, couldn't tell anyone if market is up/down/ or by how much, I don't like having any expectations and I can't control it, best to do is follow it.

I wish you well.

 

[momoNY]

If you having discipline problems, I recommend 3-4 times a year of hypnosis, I been doing this for some 28 years, helps me for discipline and other areas of my life. I hired people in 2010 to start doing automation and have over a dozen systems, which I had it started long before. I have a partner now who has other than trading full time job, so on one system, "we" been at it 26 months, should have it ready for real time this year in summer, this a is great deal of answers one needs for all the problems that can arise. Over 50k lines of code, WHEW!!

Thank for your message @Handle123, that's exactly where my problem is discipline. Giving direction where the market is headed is not a guess (well most of the time), it is based on my system which works, believe it or not, in every time frame. If I traded 5 minutes chart I should be doing no more than 5 trades, it is too fast to make a decision based on my algorithm because it looks at two different time frames , so 15 or one hour is best for me (usually my algorithm goes with 5 minutes and 15 minutes, or 15 and 1 hour, or 1 hour and 4 hours or daily and weekly), obviously I can always go from one combination to the other based on volatility, but I always find myself changing time frames back and forth which leads to overtrading. I have to look into this hypnosis.
I am starting to write an automated trading system, my algo will require a lot of tweaking to automate it,but I think I can do it , but it will require a lot of time.
May I ask you what language do you use for your automated and what API?
Thank you for your message.

 

[momoNY]

Thank for your message @Handle123, that's exactly where my problem is discipline. Giving direction where the market is headed is not a guess (well most of the time), it is based on my system which works, believe it or not, in every time frame. If I traded 5 minutes chart I should be doing no more than 5 trades, it is too fast to make a decision based on my algorithm because it looks at two different time frames , so 15 or one hour is best for me (usually my algorithm goes with 5 minutes and 15 minutes, or 15 and 1 hour, or 1 hour and 4 hours or daily and weekly), obviously I can always go from one combination to the other based on volatility, but I always find myself changing time frames back and forth which leads to overtrading. I have to look into this hypnosis.
I am starting to write an automated trading system, my algo will require a lot of tweaking to automate it,but I think I can do it , but it will require a lot of time.
May I ask you what language do you use for your automated and what API?
Ah for the 20 years, I did not really trade since 2009 when I blow up my last account but I was following the markets regularly. I still traded for almost 10 years before that.
Thank you for your message.