Thinking out loud.

If and when we get down to 1800, the economic landscape will have deteriorated significantly.
When we get there, we will look for signs of market bottom. For now the top is in place, unless a miracle happens before the end of the year.
 
Like umm oil market collapsing. And sales of single family homes. And retail car sales. And ....

Yes, oil down 40% just this quarter! The trick was how to distribute all their shares while holding the indicies higher from around May thru early October.
 
You are too pessimistic guys!

Pull up a weekly chart of any of the retail favorite or "hedge fund hotel" names. The parabolic blow off moves in those stocks are nearly identical to 2000. Even worse in many ways since liquidity is garbage compared to that era with so much consolidation in the industry and algo's that simply pull liquidity regularly. Plus short interest is at rock bottom in most of these names since it was a one way liquidity pull higher for nearly a decade.
 
Pull up a weekly chart of any of the retail favorite or "hedge fund hotel" names. The parabolic blow off moves in those stocks are nearly identical to 2000. Even worse in many ways since liquidity is garbage compared to that era with so much consolidation in the industry and algo's that simply pull liquidity regularly. Plus short interest is at rock bottom in most of these names since it was a one way liquidity pull higher for nearly a decade.
You may be right. I don't look at anything else than indices, SP and Dow essentially and my analysis is based purely on price and volume; they can only predict from one support/resistance to another not deyond IMHO.
 
You are too pessimistic guys!
LOL numbers don't lie. Most numbers most of the time.

Meanwhile the one number(s) Wall Street is frantically trying to get positive, for the year, are for the indices. Watch them try to manipulate those numbers.
 
Wow! The market is acting very weak, weaker than I thought, I was expecting a stronger close than this. Paradoxically this is setting up for a bigger bounce (2-300 points in SP500), but the bear market will be longer. We will very likely visit 1810 in the SP, if we get a close below 2530 on Friday, which I think will happen as follows:
Tomorrow the markets will tumble and recover strong to close near the open or above. Friday, if the market opens higher it will reverse to close lower and below 2530. If it opens near the close, it will go up and ease to give up most gains in the afternoon. Will see.
I think we have a short term bottom here at 2441. It will take us to 2630 where it will be a good shorting opportunity; maybe a little higher, but this market will definitely have many legs down, before it is over.
 
Last edited:
LOL numbers don't lie. Most numbers most of the time.

Meanwhile the one number(s) Wall Street is frantically trying to get positive, for the year, are for the indices. Watch them try to manipulate those numbers.
ALL markets are manipulated at some extent, more in the short term, indices are not an exception.
 
The weak close today is certainly due to politics. Tomorrow, despite all the bad news from Washington, the market will stage a rally, the news will say "in hopes of some whatever", and will go higher than 2493. It will close below the key lows, 2530 SP and 23340 Dow.
 
Back
Top