Thinking of throwing in the towel

I think you answered your own question by the original post.

Now you want justification for not trading anymore; rationalizing your decision.

I used to do this quite often, and now I simply listen to my gut and know what needs to be done.

yea, "quit". You don't need a word that harsh, but definitely move on and spend your time elsewhere.

Chalk if off as a great learning experience, fun until it wasn't, and that you decided to spend your time on other things. honestly, nobody cares. only you have to live with yourself.

I know a few guys that had rough marriages after they traded a lot. the wives all call it gambling and give them no credit for anything. lol. good times.

I also know other guys that either lose it all in one big trade, or actually make a lot of money on one "lucky" investment. They tell people they made it trading, and nobody is going to question them.

it's a funny game
 
Quote from achilles28:

Investing in a range-bound market is a great way to rack up losses. S&P was ~breakeven this past decade. I would suggest a couple things.

1) Buy and hold will work again. Research the PIIGS and American debt crisis. Central Bankers will have no choice but to print money, as they have in recent years. This is bullish for equities, especially commodities. Long equities, miners and oil stocks will do well in the next 10 years.

2) Shift from a long-term investment perspective, to a swing-trading one. Make a couple trades a week. Use Daily or 4 hour charts. Learn technical analysis (trendlines, price action, support and resistance etc). Start small, maybe with a grand or two, get the hang of it, then size up. Traders can and do make money this way, everyday, using simple methods outlined above. You've got capital on your side. Most traders blow-up not because it's impossible, but because they're undercapitalized. Within 6 months, using real basic stuff, strict risk management, you can average at least 5% a month. Sounds like a lot with nice stake, and it is.

The moral of the story is fundamental-based investing has gone to crap. In todays market, it's rarely about any rising star company (yes the googles, apples and bidus happen, but are the exception). Now, in this environment, asset prices are driven largely by monetary policy. A rising tide buoys all ships etc. Understand credit growth and destruction, it's toggle effect on risk-on/inflationary assets (equities/commodities/real estate) and risk-off/deflationary assets (bonds and cash), combine with simple trend following methods outlined above, and you're on your way.
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Good post. The Central Banks and Credit markets dictate what the stock market does.
 
I've known guys whose wives never give them credit for anything.

That can happen no matter what line of work you're in. LOL :D

Life can get lonely as you get older. I'm seeing it now, in my 30's. Some friends have moved away for career reasons. Those that are still around have settled in to the typical grown-up lifestyle of serious relationships, long hours at work, marriage, kids. So it's not like I can call them up and expect them to go out and do stuff on a whim as when we were younger. So I can understand how Red could feel under the weather mentally if this has been his way of life for some time.

I think ahead and wonder, if I raelly make it as a trader will that really be a happy life? I'd definitely have to find something else to do whether it be volunteering, part-time job, or something else.
 
Quote from dv4632:

I've known guys whose wives never give them credit for anything.

That can happen no matter what line of work you're in. LOL :D

Life can get lonely as you get older. I'm seeing it now, in my 30's. Some friends have moved away for career reasons. Those that are still around have settled in to the typical grown-up lifestyle of serious relationships, long hours at work, marriage, kids. So it's not like I can call them up and expect them to go out and do stuff on a whim as when we were younger. So I can understand how Red could feel under the weather mentally if this has been his way of life for some time.

I think ahead and wonder, if I raelly make it as a trader will that really be a happy life? I'd definitely have to find something else to do whether it be volunteering, part-time job, or something else.
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ITs. LONELY ON THE TOP!
 
Quote from nursebee:

I've been doing some reflecting, hope to get some feedback from others that have been doing this for a while...

Known: I have never met anyone realtime that made their fortune investing in individual stocks.

I have over my trading career (54 plus years). You may want to read what a few of them have written. Most fruitful for you would to be to read a bio of a few to rid yourself of the myths promulgated in this thread. Just ask for a brief bibliography if you are willing to spend the time getting strighten out.

snip...

I've been reading more from a buy and hold low cost index investing area, specifically that of John Bogle ilk.

Read "Bogle on Bogle" instead. Page 196 shows you a ten year comparison; Bogle chose the correct one and it wasn't mutual funds.

So what I am trying to figure out is if this is a fools game or not?

The Motley fools are all liberal arts majors. At least, do not read what they write.

The reality of successful retail traders is that any average type person can really make a buck compared to the cost of normal life style requirements.

You could be making your annual salary daily after just putting in a few hours daily for about 40 to 60 days. Start with the same bucks William J O'Neill did (adjusted for the time change in cost of living today) See page 172 of "24 Essential...."

Is the excuse of paying all this tuition money really part of the game?

You meant to type exercise instead of excuse. No money is paid except loss for three days loss of income while in school. After the first three days you will be making money while trading as you learn. More senior classmates will call the trades for you. Spending this training time is only required once.


Do people really turn it around and get profitable?

Everyone who goes through training is profitable. What happens is that fears you all have (anxiety, fear and anger) are easily relplaced by support, comfort and confidence. There are trained people who do not continue to trade. The reason is that they have higher priorities that are of greater interest.

Have any of you consistenly made money in stocks with buy and hold?

Consistent winner do not use that mundane strategy. Check out the people using it; they are irrational.

It is tough to know what all the lies are that I tell myself.

Actually, you do know how to do this perfectly. You were born with this ability.

Any thoughts?

Start immediately to do a 40 to 60 day training program. People start everyday. Learn with your peers in a flawless setting. Use the tools they use. Monitor (annotate and log); Analyze (use a few pages of binary rules that give you certainty on every bar); Decide (let the market give you the precise timing from your annotations and logging); and take timely Actions (trade by carving each profit segment). Anyone can do this. It is a rational routine.

Try reading my post with MADA (See capitals in the above paragraph) in mind. See if you will lie to yourself and not get up and get into class No one has to do much trading to meet their lifestyle needs. Most of us just give away excess accumulated wealth.

If I was to give advice to anyone new, I'd say to maximize tax advantage accounts in low cost index funds and to not join the individual investor ranks.
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The financial industry has really fucked itself. It certainly will get what it deserves. The way to beat the industry is to extract the market's full offer and then put the money to work to help people who played by the rules and got fucked by the financial industry.

Anyone anywhere can work with the cause of their choice by trading and profferring capital to those who are working in the various causes to get things straightened out. Think of how many foreclosures you can do workouts on for to get banks off the backs of regular people in your community.

At least send your wife to class so she can show you the ropes.

Print this and read it every day for 40 to 60 days.
 
Quote from dv4632:

It seems the big problem in trading is the isolation, which can easily lead to depression.

All the other downsides..... stress, bad back, big belly, etc can all be found in other jobs be it doctor, accountant, customer service, plumber, cubicle monkey...

The feelings of guilt.... I think those can also be found in corporate careers. If you're working 60+ hrs a week for a company that you have come to view as corrupt or uncaring or exploitative, those same feelings can emerge. I've known people who have felt that way about their job.

The difference is at a regular job you can get out of the house and socialize (or commiserate) with others, which allows for a psychological release. As a trader, home alone, you don't get that release.
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You make all good points, but you can either continue as you do or change them. It is just when you were first starting in trading and lost, you have to make changes or get wiped out.

Mentor someone, whether an older trader or someone much younger, have daily interaction and you will enjoy watching them share in your knowledge.

It use to make me feel odd for the money I make, not any more cause of what good I can do with it. Get involved with families that struggle but are trying to get ahead.

Join a book club, take dance lessons, learn to play golf, donate time at a hospital or work with the elderly, GET BUSY. I have found when I help others, comes back ten fold, develop new friendships.

Good luck.
 
I read the thread and a few posters had good advice who have already been pointed out.

I will go in order of potential returns/effort involved

1) Search for relative strength rotation of asset classes. EDIT: Actually, as I think about where you are at in your life now, I cannot stress this one enough. I really think the most basic thing for a discretionary trader to do is to do SOMETHING profitably. Without succeeding, your brain turns into mush imho impeding learning for most people.

2) Jack Hershey equities method as defined by spyder

3) Basic understanding of proflogic applied to swing charts

4) Lots of other things exist here, some of which I have seen highly successfully applied including Jack's more refined methods, but #1, 2, and 3 are the ones I would recomend that I myself have been able to understand that are being freely taught.
 
It's a mentally exhausting game. Even if you win, which is rare for many, you will be drained from the amount of education you have to dedicate to that.

I am not trying to discourage one from this game, but so many come here and ask "Is it worth it?" the amount of time you have to study the market relative to the rewards you will reap is very not proportional.
Relative to other fields its the smallest.
The amount of unknown variable, the competition, technology, etc us stacked against us.

To me its just an absurd how our tax system write off tie 401K/IRA so strongly to the stock market. This is a whole different discussion all together.

RG
 
Like any business, trading isn't easy. According to the NASAA, 90% of new traders blow out their accounts within 6 months.
But I've also read that 95% of new restaurants go broke within a year.

You must be adequately capitalized. It cost me many times over what I originally allocated for losses, before finally turning the corner.

At some point you gain confidence which is also key.
 
Quote from KeLo:

Like any business, trading isn't easy. According to the NASAA, 90% of new traders blow out their accounts within 6 months.
But I've also read that 95% of new restaurants go broke within a year.

You must be adequately capitalized. It cost me many times over what I originally allocated for losses, before finally turning the corner.

At some point you gain confidence which is also key.
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Everyone blows out their first account or two. I wonder how many they think end up becoming profitable after working it.
 
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