Thinking of going long silver here..

S

simon1080

What do you think?

As a over all hedge to the possible downfall of the dollar / hedge against market downturn.


I believe Silver is under valued at these levels compared to gold .. so Id want to capture the spread difference as well as it moves up to fill the correlation gap with gold!


Any thoughts?
 
I'm long SLV and SLW right now but part of me worries that my thinking is too simplistic.
bailouts -> inflation -> precious metals up.
Aside from the big day wednesday , there really doesn't seem to be a rush into gold and silver yet. both are lower than they were a couple of weeks ago. I would have thought that the possibility of financial systems collapsing and the gov't potentially spending hundreds of billions to stop it would have caused precious metals to soar.
Am I missing something? Is deflation just as likely because of massive deleveraging?
I'm out of my element here so I'd appreciate it if someone could give arguments against gold and silver. thanks!
 
I posted this elsewhere in metals forum

the other day

silver is too low


09-21-08 05:50 AM

the silver train is slowly leaving the station

hope to see prices way above $13 ... $ 14 yada yada yada

in the next few months

:cool:
 
Quote from simon1080:

What do you think?

As a over all hedge to the possible downfall of the dollar / hedge against market downturn.


I believe Silver is under valued at these levels compared to gold .. so Id want to capture the spread difference as well as it moves up to fill the correlation gap with gold!


Any thoughts?
More...

look at $gold:$silver ratio

nothing is ever a sure thing, but it does suggest opportunity
 
I noticed it too. A while ago I noticed gold's decline was like 20% but silver's was closer to 50%. So my thinking was that silver would outperform. This is pretty much opposite of how everyone else usually thinks especially about stocks (they say to pick the stock that went down the least).

I'm long both gold and silver, so far silver has made me more money.

I also think the dollar is screwed. I posted about this last week when the dollar went up during the crisis. I didn't understand it. Now people are wondering where that 700 billion is going to come from. :)
 
Quote from cunparis:

I noticed it too. A while ago I noticed gold's decline was like 20% but silver's was closer to 50%. So my thinking was that silver would outperform. This is pretty much opposite of how everyone else usually thinks especially about stocks (they say to pick the stock that went down the least).

I'm long both gold and silver, so far silver has made me more money.

I also think the dollar is screwed. I posted about this last week when the dollar went up during the crisis. I didn't understand it. Now people are wondering where that 700 billion is going to come from. :)
More...

the gold/silver ratio has some importances between itself and stocks

like 5000 years of human history, for starters

that ratio went from about 45 to 75 in the blink of an eye

tech analysis of a stock would suggest it can go much higher

but history of gold and silver suggests that's unlikely
 
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