Things are really bad, or

Quote from CaptainObvious:

Under President Lyndon Johnson, the government decided individuals who had stopped looking for work for more than a year were no longer part of the labor force. This dramatically decreased the jobless rate reported by the government.
If unemployment were still tallied the way it was in the 1930s, today's jobless rate would be closer to 16.5 percent

You're right but the unemployment was still worse in 1975, 1982 and 1992. Last time I checked Johnson was president before 1975. Once we surpass those numbers we will have something to worry about. Until then we are in a normal recession that is getting as over hyped as Obama's campaign.
 
Quote from NeoRio1:

You're right but the unemployment was still worse in 1975, 1982 and 1992. Last time I checked Johnson was president before 1975. Once we surpass those numbers we will have something to worry about. Until then we are in a normal recession that is getting as over hyped as Obama's campaign.

The numbers are manipulated even more today. I can tell you that I was part of the work force in 1975, 1982, and 1992 and things were not this bad, not even close. 75 and 92 were mere blips. 82 was a rough period, no doubt.
 
We're starting to see the impact where I am (Pac NW). You notice more people out of work and more talk about layoffs. - - Unfortunately some of my family members really have no clue about how serious this is, or will become in the future.They think that tomorrow will pretty much be like yesterday. There are some small adjustments to work & spending habits - but not enough. (I'd like to see elimination of all extraneous stupid spending, work like hell to build up as much reserves as possible, and shift investments around in light of the current environment.) I have to temper my warnings or it will be taken as extremism and alarmist. "Ignorance is bliss." is often in play.
 
Quote from CaptainObvious:

The numbers are manipulated even more today. I can tell you that I was part of the work force in 1975, 1982, and 1992 and things were not this bad, not even close. 75 and 92 were mere blips. 82 was a rough period, no doubt.

What specific numbers or methods of recording unemployment have changed sense 1982?
 
I just bought a Mcmansion (I know....) so I still talk to the building manager since they have to keep fixing the small things here. The company that built this place started out 3 years back ready to build 300 homes per year, last summer they laid off since they were only building about 100 in 07-08. Guess how many they are building now?- 4! guess how many plans they have pending to break ground- 0!

When I talk to friends in the tech industry, everyone is holding their breath. It is as if they expect the gig to collapse at any moment.


I think lopsided free trade and easy credit did us in. No one person to blame, lots of villians here. A few people I talk to really seem to understand what's going on, most though seem to want to ignore it until they have to deal with it.


Obama has to be having panic moments by now... "i actually promised these morons jobs" as he rubs his forehead and pours a scotch
 
Quote from NeoRio1:

What specific numbers or methods of recording unemployment have changed sense 1982?

Discouraged workers. Those discouraged greater or lessor than one year.
 
I can't figure things out at all. There's been a flurry of activity by me since the beginning of the year - perhaps because here in FL we were on the bleeding edge of things and we are getting a temporary uptick, but I don't think so. Things are grimmer down in the South Florida area with relatives expecting layoffs, etc...

One of the important markers of what is going on is a skyrocketing crime rate. Criminals now coming into the wealthier areas and attempting what appear to be desparate crimes. The bottom end of the spectrum has been squeezed so hard that its now worth their while to try riskier crimes than before. That's really worrisome.

After March, things will be clearer, I think with the true magnitude of the implosion clear. No person I know in their sane mind would purchase a large capital asset right now (house, new car) with current expectations. Auto ads on TV have been replaced by litigators, as the only part of the equation that's still active is the wealth-transfer business. Unfortunately, when the insurance co. goes belly up, and the person you're suing doesn't have anything either, that business stops too as there's no point in obtaining an unrecoverable judgment with you bearing the court costs to do so.

I'll assume armageddon. When I am wrong, I can just laugh and re-deploy assets. But the travesty that has just passed in front of our eyes by TARP II doesn't give me much hope for a return to normalacy. "L" shaped recession anyone?
 
Quote from CaptainObvious:

I hope your cat gets better. Had to put mine down last year after 18 years together. Damn tough thing to do.
<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=2301701
A good cat she was.

what an adorable little kitty! here's mine, her name is Panda:

attachment.php
 

Attachments

Quote from hughb:

what an adorable little kitty! here's mine, her name is Panda:

attachment.php

Nice looking cat. We ended up going to the shelter about a month after we put Tricky down and got these two rascals. The dog was not pleased.
<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=2302097
 

Attachments

Quote from hughb:

I'm a low level employee loading trucks for deliveries to grocery stores. We don't even work 40 hours a week anymore.

Frankly though, this isn't the worst I've seen, because I live in San Diego. In the early 90's, after the Soviet Union breakup and the fall of the Berllin wall, San Diego turned into a ghost town. There was no work anywhere, it didn't just kill the aero/defense industry here. I ended up working at telemarketing places back then. Goddam what a miserable time that was.

Our higher up muckety-mucks are trying to downplay how bad it really is, for whatever reason. They told us that last year's volume was 98% of the previous year's. I don't know why they would stand there and lie to us like that when we can see with our own eyes how much work has dropped off. Maybe they figure that hourly employees aren't smart enough to notice that their paychecks are much less that 98% of the previous year's.

A couple of guys at work have recently married and had children. they are very scared right now. One even pulled me aside and confided in me all the problems he is facing right now. His wife doesn't understand why the cable tv is being shut off and why she has to cook every day now.

My trading isn't going to damb well either. I've never been very good working the short side of the market. I damb sure better learn how though.

EDIT to add - my kitty is very sick right now. I took her to a pet ER and they wanted over $1000 a day to keep her there. A couple of years ago i would have readily agreed to something like that to help my kitty, but now I flat out can't afford that. She's spending the night in a local vet's office tonight, I have to get her out of there tommorrow AM.

Let me ask you something. I read/heard somewhere (can't remmber) that most US cites only have 3-5 days of food in stores and about a weeks worth in hospitals. Can you confirm this? Thanks.

PS Sorry about your cat. My ET handle is my cats name. :D
 
Back
Top