There is nothing wrong with luck, as long as people don't confuse it with skill. Luck eventually runs out. That is why I like Mark Cuban, Charlie Lee, etc. They realized they were sitting on fool's gold and quickly sold, before others came to the same conclusion.
Thiel’s fund wound down 8-year bitcoin bet before market crash
- Thread starter Pekelo
- Start date
There is nothing wrong with luck, as long as people don't confuse it with skill. Luck eventually runs out. That is why I like Mark Cuban, Charlie Lee, etc. They realized they were sitting on fool's gold and quickly sold, before others came to the same conclusion.
They probably were married to it but realized that the intermediaries were of poor financial quality. They had access to these firms books as these firms were likely looking for financing and Peter thiel is a name you would love to have on your cap table.
over 8 years there were tons of drawdowns in bitcoin.
over 8 years there were tons of drawdowns in bitcoin.
There is no such thing as a no brainer in markets. There is such a thing as no brains in markets.
Since 2015 there were only 4 real signals that the market would go down and you should sell all your BTC. If you see tons of drawdowns you should improve your strategy. You saw a lot of retracements between the four real signals. If you have positions like Thiel you only should take the real critical turning points. The fourth real signals was in 2021 when I posted it. Around 65K.
My point is that he likely exited because “this time was different” and he had an inside look into that.
No brains in market is the predominant condition.
That's what creates the inefficiency in the markets.
I agree. He is not a trader, so he uses a different approach. Having an inside look helps also a lot.
What he saw confirmed my mathematical approach.
He knew FTX was going to collapse, not because he has a crystal ball like Pelosi, but because he is just that super smart.
This was not due to any random back swan events in crypto. But because he clearly saw into the future and timed it perfectly.
This was not due to any random back swan events in crypto. But because he clearly saw into the future and timed it perfectly.
It is a good point but:
1. They may have been playing it long/cash for the last few years.
2. Since they have been long since 2014, holding it until the last ATH was the best strategy, by 20/20 hindsight.