They say $300 oil a possibility if supplies are shut down from Russia!!

[RedSun]

All the oil price talk is BS.

The world is free economy. Only the countries from the West cares about not using Russian oil. The rest of the world does not care, or they can't care. Even India can't do anything and is not willing to do anything. They will search for all the cheap oil they can find. If people are starving, how can people care for the world environment and the democracy?

If the West doe not buy Russian oil now, the oil will be sold to whatever buyers they are. Then those buyers will supply the oil to another market. The West tried to cut off Russians off the SWIFT system and won't allow anyone to trade with Russians. This is just like the old Iranian sanctions.

But those oil traders will sign on Chinese CIPS system at the expenses of SWIFT system. CIPS is based on Chinese global Yenminbi. It is out of US financial control.

So the global oil supply won't change much. It is just the oil trading that will change. Clearly whoever can trade with Russia will benefit. And West will suffer with the $130 oil price. China probably pays like $80 or so via the land pipeline directly from Russia.

West just pushes the benefits to China at its own expenses. It is very near-sighted.

The world has no shortage of oil. Western governments just created its own energy crisis out of the thin air. Their own economies will suffer. Their own people will suffer.

 

[RedSun]

Think about this. West supplies advanced weapons to the lawless Syria and Ukraine. Some of the volunteers are extremists. Now West Europe wants to build LNG terminals and want to ship all the LNG from Saudi and UAE etc. All those ship have to pass through Red Sea, Suez Canal etc. It will create more supply bottleneck. We all remember the days Suze Canal was blocked.

What is going to be the European energy security? And you get open border and all the weapons out there.

 

[easymon1]

 

[RedSun]

Also, demand destruction is coming. Whenever we see $4.50 or $5.50 per gallon gas prices, it is a shock. People certainly want to drive less. Some people may choose to work from home. Demand destruction will be severe in developing countries.

When people have the habit of driving less, the new habit sticks and most of the demand destruction becomes permanent.

This will also speed up the Green transition.

We will likely elect a Republic US President to be more energy friendly. To replace the incompetent current president. So we won't shoot our own feet.

 

[smallfil]

Also, demand destruction is coming. Whenever we see $4.50 or $5.50 per gallon gas prices, it is a shock. People certainly want to drive less. Some people may choose to work from home. Demand destruction will be severe in developing countries.

When people have the habit of driving less, the new habit sticks and most of the demand destruction becomes permanent.

This will also speed up the Green transition.

We will likely elect a Republic US President to be more energy friendly. To replace the incompetent current president. So we won't shoot our own feet.

Joe Biden turned the US from a major oil exporter to an importer of oil. We have so much oil under the ground not counting huge natural gas reserves. US oil companies are not touching it because they are being harassed by regulators unleashed on them by Joe Biden. In addition, they are being investigated for price gouging because the price of oil is sky high? Green energy is expensive and unreliable. They want subsidies for the green companies owned by extreme liberals. That is what the Build Back BS bill is about. It will benefit a few filthy rich, extreme liberal billionaires at the expense of US taxpayers who have to pay for those huge subsidies.

 

[RedSun]

History repeats itself.

West exited Africa citing the reasons of corruption, no respect of human rights, lack of democracy. So we left Africa to itself for constant civil wars.

Then China came along. Offered a lot of economic assistance. Now China controls a lot of African natural resources, from oil, rare metals to coffee and timber etc. Some day it may even build some military bases across Africa.

All Europe needs is the stability. A long lasting war in Ukraine is detrimental to the entire Europe. It is going to be a little like WW I. It will exhaust a lot of resources from Russia, Europe and US. By the time Ukraine is stabalized (whenever and however), half of the Ukraine population would be probably gone. All those refugees will likely go to Europe. And Germans and French people have to feed them and shelter them. More resource drain.

All of this will only lead to the decline of both Russia and Europe. Stagflation of USA. And the further rise of China. Then US will have no capability to contain China (another ill policy). US promise to protect Taiwan is even much weaker than Bush's promise to protect Ukraine.

 

[smallfil]

All the oil price talk is BS.

The world is free economy. Only the countries from the West cares about not using Russian oil. The rest of the world does not care, or they can't care. Even India can't do anything and is not willing to do anything. They will search for all the cheap oil they can find. If people are starving, how can people care for the world environment and the democracy?

If the West doe not buy Russian oil now, the oil will be sold to whatever buyers they are. Then those buyers will supply the oil to another market. The West tried to cut off Russians off the SWIFT system and won't allow anyone to trade with Russians. This is just like the old Iranian sanctions.

But those oil traders will sign on Chinese CIPS system at the expenses of SWIFT system. CIPS is based on Chinese global Yenminbi. It is out of US financial control.

So the global oil supply won't change much. It is just the oil trading that will change. Clearly whoever can trade with Russia will benefit. And West will suffer with the $130 oil price. China probably pays like $80 or so via the land pipeline directly from Russia.

West just pushes the benefits to China at its own expenses. It is very near-sighted.

The world has no shortage of oil. Western governments just created its own energy crisis out of the thin air. Their own economies will suffer. Their own people will suffer.

Ukraine and Russia supply a lot of the world's commodities. That is lost on a lot of people who have no clue. Once, the supply of commodities is disrupted like this Ukraine war, it will spike commodity prices. Look at nickel it spiked and suddenly, very expensive. Most of these commodities are used to manufacture things the world needs. The longer the war goes, the more disruption and sky high commodities prices will be. US and Europe will pay the most because they consume a good chunk of those commodities.

 

[RedSun]

If we look at the energy trade data, US imports almost no natural gas from Russia. I do not know the oil import data. But it does not make sense for US to import directly from Russia. Some of the Russian oil cargo may have changed owners a couple of times from Europe. Some of those cargo may have ultimately arrived at US.

All oil refineries use specific grade of crude oil. They can't just switch to different crude on the flight.

I believe most of the "Russian" energy products are probably gasoline blending components. Russian crude oil gets processed in Europe. But Europe does not need all the gasoline. So US imports a lot of the gasoline from Europe. The original source of this gasoline import is from Russia. The importers can easily switch the original source to Norway or North Sea.

The US ban on Russian energy really has little impact on US crude oil supply. The $25 crude oil run-up is really unwarranted. I would be a seller of WTI anywhere above $120. Even above $110. Should not even be above $100.

 

[The_Krakenite]

The best part is, how all these tree-hugging hippies were such big fans of dip-shit Biden & insider-trading Pelosi when they were canceling the Keystone and doing everything in their power to STOP those evil Canadians from supplying cheap OIL to the US. How dare they!

NOW everyone is worried about expensive oil? Too late!

I am 100% in favor of watching the pain-screws turn tighter and teach the US voters a good lesson here.

 

[smallfil]

The best part is, how all these tree-hugging hippies were such big fans of dip-shit Biden & insider-trading Pelosi when they were canceling the Keystone and doing everything in their power to STOP those evil Canadians from supplying cheap OIL to the US. How dare they!

NOW everyone is worried about expensive oil? Too late!

I am 100% in favor of watching the pain-screws turn tighter and teach the US voters a good lesson here.

Those who voted for Biden deserve all of the economic pain they are about to experience. They put this incompetent guy in. Elections have consequences.