These statements about transitory inflation are bs, it is INFLATION!
- Thread starter wildchild
- Start date
But in 1994 rates were 3x higher than they are now.. this .75 rate hike is less menaingful now than it was in 1994 when rates were over 5%. Fed mentioned they are not even looking to get rates that high in the next two years.
Different debt load than the 90s, too. So rates much lower have the same impact.
This was during the Great Moderation. Argued as monetary policy stabilized, output became more efficient and stayed in a calm cycle until 2007.
https://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2004/20040220/
We are in an opposite of moderation right now with unstable monetary policy so expect output to be unstable and thus unpredictable markets.
Lots and lots of people are thinking being in an economic downturn to cool inflation is the right prescription but a *manufactured* downturn may not cool inflation. The downturn should theoretically come from consumers changing habits as a result of inflation. We are in very uncertain times right now. Somewhere between it will be bad and why did we make an already bad thing really bad.
You are proven to be 100% incorrect, I 100% nailed it.
The question is, what will you do now?
Nah. We are still chugging along. Mind you now that quote of mine was 3 months before Russia invaded Ukraine. I see a lot of people patting themselves on the back as if they knew Russia would invade Ukraine or that the Russian invasion had no effect on Ukraine. The truth is that the Russian invasion exasperated the inflation situation. I don’t fault myself. That was the correct analysis 3 months before the Russian invasion. Now a global reset is pushed out and the Fed is going gung ho. Dollar is probably near peak strength with every other CB pushing up rates. As @Tsing Tao liked to mock me “transitory for longer” is pretty accurate. Food will probably push inflation higher over the next few months, auto and travel too.
As for Me, I’m just sitting here waiting for the bottom. July- August ish, if not sooner I think but we are very unstable times and lots and lots of things are uncertain. Who knows.
Im not sure what you “nailed” though. Perhaps you would like to share?
Personally unloaded half long term stock portfolio and moving into real estate. At the end of the year when I accumulate more cash I will start going back in for.another run but wont be as big as 2020 - 2022. Banks and high dividend energy to start 
.
Inflation is only a problem if you dont know how to play it. Not like this is the first inflation cycle we ever went through. Yeah I am paying more for shit but also making way more money. Just got to rotate the cash ahead of time abd give up last few gains to get ahead as no one calls the top. Going to be bumpy for at least until.summer of 2023.
.Inflation is only a problem if you dont know how to play it. Not like this is the first inflation cycle we ever went through. Yeah I am paying more for shit but also making way more money. Just got to rotate the cash ahead of time abd give up last few gains to get ahead as no one calls the top. Going to be bumpy for at least until.summer of 2023.