These Biases I have are Killing me
- Thread starter Flashboy
- Start date
i had the same problem. it took 6 months realize the obvious mistake i was making.
i have but two rules now.
markets are trending up = go long.
markets are trending down = go short.
i never short on an uptrend and never go long on the way down.
if you want to catch the reversal, then wait for confirmation.
dont try to catch the reversal before it happens. this was a major problem for me. if i follow these two rules i am profitable, if i go back to the old ways, i lose.
'many people fail to see what is directly in front of them.'
jesse livermore
so true.
hope this helps.
later
i have but two rules now.
markets are trending up = go long.
markets are trending down = go short.
i never short on an uptrend and never go long on the way down.
if you want to catch the reversal, then wait for confirmation.
dont try to catch the reversal before it happens. this was a major problem for me. if i follow these two rules i am profitable, if i go back to the old ways, i lose.
'many people fail to see what is directly in front of them.'
jesse livermore
so true.
hope this helps.
later
Lol, yeah. Also make sure you buy low and sell high, or buy high and sell higher
......................I dont think that's really helping him do you fishing?In the early days of when I was trading, and using my many indicators, I had it so deeply ingrained in my head that when the stochastic indicator was in the 20's or below, the market HAD to bounce..almost like it was some rule. ALL the GD books showed these perfect text book examples of how a stochastics hit oversold, then took off to the moon. I loved how they put their little lables on there too "buy here", "sell here".
The point is, indicators for a long time fvck'ed up the way I thought about trading. I had an opinion about the market that I felt so strongly about, that when it didnt work out, it wasnt my fault, but the markets, because it didnt do what it was "Supposed to do". When you get over this mental block (and it might take you a few yrs..no joke) you'll come to term, and fully understand that ALL you can do as a trader is find where price is most likely to go up, and where price is most likely to go down based off your set of tested, and proven rules. Paper trade until you find something thats been tested to work. Indicators can work, but you just have to be careful with them, and really I wouldnt advise a noob to use them, but at the same time, most pro traders I'm sure dont trade with a MACD on their screens either. The reason for this is simple... Indicators cloud your view of the market (the stock chart your looking at) Its like having a devil on one shoulder and an angel on the other, who do you trust ( and its not an easy answer either
). When you look at a naked chart, you see patterns, you see the major s/r pivots, and other things that may not have stood out before. You will also feel "lighter" mentally by not having to stare and analysize all those indicators. Maybe you have a system that works, but once you get your mind adjusted, you'll be fine .kon
Greetings Flashboy,
Being honest with yourself, as you have done herein is a very good start, and must be continued from this day forward. Since you clearly don't have a problem identifying a trend, I have a simple technique that may help. The technique is:
"Want What The Market Wants".
Example: If the market is making HH's and HL's as in and uptrend, the market obviously "wants" to go up. You will only trade from the Long side or stand aside. If the market is making LL's and LH's as in and downtrend, the market obviously wants to go down. You will only trade from the Short side or stand aside.
An uptrend is a sequence of HH's and HL's.
A downtrend is a sequence of LL's and LH's.
Any uptrend out of sequence callout, such as a: (HH then LL), (HL then DT), or (HL then LH), can be considered either a Setup for a Down Reversal, the start of a Continuation Pattern, or a Trading Range.
Conversely, any downtrend out of sequence callout, such as a: (LL then HH), (LH then DB), or (LH then HL), can be considered either a Setup for an Up Reversal, the start of a Continuation Pattern, or a Trading Range.
Discipline yourself to "trade what you see, and not what you think", and you will then begin to see a difference in your trading attitude.
Every Morning, before the opening bell, say to the market and to yourself: "It is not my will, but thy will be done this day".
Being honest with yourself, as you have done herein is a very good start, and must be continued from this day forward. Since you clearly don't have a problem identifying a trend, I have a simple technique that may help. The technique is:
"Want What The Market Wants".
Example: If the market is making HH's and HL's as in and uptrend, the market obviously "wants" to go up. You will only trade from the Long side or stand aside. If the market is making LL's and LH's as in and downtrend, the market obviously wants to go down. You will only trade from the Short side or stand aside.
An uptrend is a sequence of HH's and HL's.
A downtrend is a sequence of LL's and LH's.
Any uptrend out of sequence callout, such as a: (HH then LL), (HL then DT), or (HL then LH), can be considered either a Setup for a Down Reversal, the start of a Continuation Pattern, or a Trading Range.
Conversely, any downtrend out of sequence callout, such as a: (LL then HH), (LH then DB), or (LH then HL), can be considered either a Setup for an Up Reversal, the start of a Continuation Pattern, or a Trading Range.
Discipline yourself to "trade what you see, and not what you think", and you will then begin to see a difference in your trading attitude.
Every Morning, before the opening bell, say to the market and to yourself: "It is not my will, but thy will be done this day".
Flash,
Having a bias is a symptom â you need to work on curing the root cause
Have you figured out what is causing you to have a bias⦠based on this post I surmise notâ¦
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So tonight sit down with pencil and paper and start writing out the whys â this may take a day, a week, even longer â but it is necessary, and it will take as long as it takesâ¦
Once you have your first layer of why(s) â write out the why(s) for each of them â and continue this process until you can drill down no further
What youâll end up with will be the root cause of your bias - and there will only be one root cause⦠If you find you have more than one â you have more drilling down to do
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Once identified you can start working to resolving the root cause
Iâm willing to share some things I used â but first I would ask you to identify the real root cause â otherwise youâre wasting time and not focusing on resolving the real reason you have a biasâ¦
Trading is easy â itâs all the personal stuff thatâs the real pisser
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Btw this idea is not original â I picked it up while trying to learn how I learned and working through all the crap I had to resolveâ¦
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Additional btwâs
Now granted you can work on resolving your bias via trading â but it will cost you money â maybe a lot of money⦠What I propose will cost you paper, a pencil and some elbow greaseâ¦
But (always a but) assuming you do go the pencil/ paper route and figure out the root cause â implementing it into your trading will take timeâ¦
One thing I absolutely know is change, no matter how small, takes time, and a change doesnât always take the first time⦠But with perseverance and consistency â change will happen and will become the way of thingsâ¦
Trading profitably is a journey not a destination â Success in Your Journey Sir
RN