Quote from trickshot:
The industry (according to FF futures) is 50/50 on whether the cut will be a 25 bps cut or a 50 bps cut, but the consensus is fed will cut. What we have here is different, 40% thinks fed will not cut, and 60% thinks fed will cut.
I'm certain that fed will cut because the bond market has only ever been wrong once, the odds of that happening again are simply too slim.
I think there are too many pikers who are betting on a fed pause, its akin to betting on the lottery, low probability with high returns, typical gamblers' mentality.


Quote from Babak:
req,
actually it was before the fact analysis, I wrote this yesterday on this thread.
And I wrote the blog post (above link) this morning, hours before the Fed announcement.
I also wrote this months ago calling for a rate cut: Fed Should Cut Rates Immediately when no one was even talking about rate cuts.
But then this troll never lets facts get in his way.
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Quote from Bob Rowshan:
I totally accept that I was wrong and the Fed funds were lowered by 1/2%. congrats to all who did well! And cograts to Atticus who won $20 form me. good trading!
Quote from dhpar:
So to summarize it for the last time from me on ET:
A. or B. it is. I prefer no cut especially as the recent panic seems to recede. They could maybe secure it with 25 cut in the discount rate. 25 ff is ok - still I think fed will dents its reputation much more than if the dad in the story goes with B.
who argues for fifty has clearly no clue - 50ers please give us a single valid reason why the cut should be 50. To decrease reserve requirement is even more stupid - do you understand implication of that Dr. Greenback? Do you know what is an effect of that? And why/when this should be done? [/B]