There will be no Fed rate cut

[trickshot]

Quote from IV_Trader:

ET poll’s result is very close/in sync with industry norms when its comes to economics’ survey…a coin flip , errr , 50/50. LOL
You don’t ever see 100 doctors looking at the same patient and 50 say “strong as a bull” and the other 50 “he is going to die tomorrow” , do you ?

The industry (according to FF futures) is 50/50 on whether the cut will be a 25 bps cut or a 50 bps cut, but the consensus is fed will cut. What we have here is different, 40% thinks fed will not cut, and 60% thinks fed will cut.

I'm certain that fed will cut because the bond market has only ever been wrong once, the odds of that happening again are simply too slim.

I think there are too many pikers who are betting on a fed pause, its akin to betting on the lottery, low probability with high returns, typical gamblers' mentality.

 

[kashirin]

Quote from trickshot:

The industry (according to FF futures) is 50/50 on whether the cut will be a 25 bps cut or a 50 bps cut, but the consensus is fed will cut. What we have here is different, 40% thinks fed will not cut, and 60% thinks fed will cut.

I'm certain that fed will cut because the bond market has only ever been wrong once, the odds of that happening again are simply too slim.

I think there are too many pikers who are betting on a fed pause, its akin to betting on the lottery, low probability with high returns, typical gamblers' mentality.

People here are not gamblers. We just want to have a free market as Larry Kudlow has declared. As we won't have access to bail out money and we won't benefit from inflation which will eat our trading money. So from the free market point Fed must not cut and probably must raise

The industry from the other hand has direct access to the money Fed prints
So they definitely want 50 bp cut or better 500 bp cut
So poll here and industry thoughts - those are just wishes not the consensus

Consensus is FF
And Fed Futures are at 95 now that gives just 100% of 25 bp cut
and 0% chance of 50 bp cut

 

[MTE]

Quote from trickshot:

...I'm certain that fed will cut because the bond market has only ever been wrong once, the odds of that happening again are simply too slim...

Well, what stops it from being wrong twice?

 

[dhpar]

Quote from kashirin:

Consensus is FF
And Fed Futures are at 95 now that gives just 100% of 25 bp cut
and 0% chance of 50 bp cut

remember that effective rate up to today is about 5.07 so the probability of 50bps cut as implied by FF is actually higher. it is better to look at Oct.
50bps should not happen though.

 

[trickshot]

Quote from kashirin:

People here are not gamblers. We just want to have a free market as Larry Kudlow has declared. As we won't have access to bail out money and we won't benefit from inflation which will eat our trading money. So from the free market point Fed must not cut and probably must raise

The industry from the other hand has direct access to the money Fed prints
So they definitely want 50 bp cut or better 500 bp cut
So poll here and industry thoughts - those are just wishes not the consensus

Consensus is FF
And Fed Futures are at 95 now that gives just 100% of 25 bp cut
and 0% chance of 50 bp cut

Unfortunately, this is how crooked wall street works, central bankers have bailed out wall street bankers many times before and they will do it again because they cant afford to have banks fail.

Consensus is a 50/50 chance on a 25bps cut or 50 bps cut, you should be looking at the Oct contract, the Sept contract has expired.

 

[trickshot]

Quote from MTE:

Well, what stops it from being wrong twice?

Nothing, but the odds of that happening is extremely low. I'd very much rather bet on the lottery.

 

[MTE]

Quote from trickshot:

Nothing, but the odds of that happening is extremely low. I'd very much rather bet on the lottery.

See, with that I disagree, I think the odds are a lot better than in lottery!

 

[kashirin]

Quote from trickshot:

Unfortunately, this is how crooked wall street works, central bankers have bailed out wall street bankers many times before and they will do it again because they cant afford to have banks fail.

Consensus is a 50/50 chance on a 25bps cut or 50 bps cut, you should be looking at the Oct contract, the Sept contract has expired.

Interesting - I traded Sep contract today.
IB shows it expires Sep 28

Maybe you should check dates before posting?
It might cost you a lot

 

[basis]

Sep still trades. And it's saying roughly 40% chance of 50 bps. October is slightly higher than that, because of the chance of an intermeeting cut.

 

[trickshot]

Quote from kashirin:

Interesting - I traded Sep contract today.
IB shows it expires Sep 28

Maybe you should check dates before posting?
It might cost you a lot

Yea my bad, I was looking at the Aug contract. Nevetheless the Oct contract still shows a 50% chance of a 0.5% cut by the next meeting.

I wont have any positions open before the fed statement/decision is released, so its not going to cost me anything.