There will be no Fed rate cut

Will the Fed cut rates next week?

  • Yes they will cut

    Votes: 148 59.7%

  • No they won't cut

    Votes: 100 40.3%
  • Total voters
    248
Quote from myminitrading:

How they can cut rates with crude oil making all time highs is simply irresponsible.

IMO oil may spoil this little rate cut.
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Actually, I say it's just the opposite. Crude prices are making all time highs because of a rate cut. Money is cheaper, therefore, the demand for dollar denominated assets are rising. The expected global demand for oil is rising because financing for crude will be cheaper.

With that said, the rhetoric for a strike on Iran has also heated up since Gen. Petraeus's testimony. He made it very clear Iran is supplying the insurgence.
 
Quote from Pa(b)st Prime:

Mostly ignorance.
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Throw me in the ignorant camp. There's a 5% to 10% chance of "no cut". Why do 45% of the poll respondents believe in an outcome with such low odds??:confused:
 
Because, in general, people who post on here aren't all that, um... savvy.

Is there a chance of no cut? Sure. But there are two big problems with that: Bernanke has people to answer to, and some of them are dumb as rocks. More importantly, in my mind, the effective rate is tracking 5.00 and assets have stabilized. This stealth cut and the simultaneous opening of the discount window have done a great job of staunching the bleeding in the credit markets, and have bought time to see some more economic data.
 
What an entertaining thread. Nothing is funnier then people who are so sure that they're right... except those who are not only sure their opinion is fact, but they're sure everyone else knows nothing. Also, since its the internet and 99% anonymous they're brave enough to shoot their mouth off at those who dont take their opinion as fact. Absolutely classic stuff here.
 
I'll gladly admit I know more than 90-95% of the people who post here.

Like dhpar pointed out, there's never been a surprise move at a regularly scheduled meeting. A "surprise" move is something they do to prop up sagging markets ala' cuts pre-open on opex or in the last half hour like 10/98 or at lunch like 1/01. Moves like Tuesday are so well choreographed I can make up the quotes as they come across on Reuters.

Fed Gov X say's "we're mindful of current conditions" Y say's " while there are inflation risks going forward I'm open to the possibility of a less restrictive stance in the nearer term" blah, blah, blah.

The whole idea is to telegraph the action. Even then, does knowing what they'll do help in trading decisions? Not one bit. The implicit message in the policy statement will be, "we're scared shitless of runaway inflation but we gave you this one because you begged all the way to 1370 and back. Break again and you'll be rewarded with another. " Now what?

Quote from xflat2186:

What an entertaining thread. Nothing is funnier then people who are so sure that they're right... except those who are not only sure their opinion is fact, but they're sure everyone else knows nothing. Also, since its the internet and 99% anonymous they're brave enough to shoot their mouth off at those who dont take their opinion as fact. Absolutely classic stuff here.
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Quote from Pa(b)st Prime:

Like dhpar pointed out, there's never been a surprise move at a regularly scheduled meeting.
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Two comments: we have a new guy eager to distinguish himself from his predecessor. And is 25 bps a surprise now?
 
Quote from myminitrading:



Here we have oil at new highs, along with other soaring commodity prices and the fed is going to cut to support the stock market, simply insane.
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agree 100%
 
Quote from myminitrading:

Has this ever happend a soaring market and the fed cuts rates? I thought they only cut when things were bad and getting worse.
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Part of the reason that the markets are soaring is in anticipation of the rate cut which, I agree with you, isn't going to happen. Playing it long for now, but getting ready to short on Tues. if no cut.

I don't see how they can possibly cut. LIBOR's coming down, CFC got another cash infusion signaling faith in the eventual recovery of that beleagured industry...this is how Bernanke wants it. He wants the market to sort things out for itself, and that's what it appears to be doing even in the absence of an actual cut.
 
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