There goes the neighborhood

[NoDoji]

Quote from kjones5159:

Still, no right answer? Anybody care to say what they know to be right instead of saying I'm wrong? Or do you even have a view?

There is no right or wrong in the market. It just is. The only thing you can control is how you manage your trade. Before you enter, know in advance where the odds of a favorable result become reduced to the point that it no longer makes sense to spend any more money to find out if the trade will work.

Quote from kjones5159:

I'm not relying on anyone, just trying to predict. You're telling me you put your money in something without having a working hypothesis or even slight inkling as to what may happen? And I'm the idiot...right.

It's not necessary to predict. What's important is to have an edge, any kind of edge will do as long as you're capable of trading all setups that meet the criteria of your plan and then manage the trades according to the rules that preserve that edge.

Quote from kjones5159:

And actually, it was good timing, this last dribble upwards is very lacking in conviction, headline euphoria.

As a technical price action trader, the "dribble upwards" you refer to is midday consolidation in a narrow at highs. The more likely follow-through scenario is continuation in the direction of the trend.

Mark Douglas has written an incredible book on the psychology of trading once you have a defined edge. Trading in the Zone does not describe how to trade fundamentally or technically; it tells you step by step how to overcome harmful belief systems that prevent you from reaping the rewards of a defined trading edge. It's not an easy book to comprehend but well worth reading 3 or 4 times until you do.

 

[kjones5159]

I will definitely check that out, thanks NoDoji.

As for the dribble, I see light and decreasing further volume, and mixed/neutral candles, and at this level price-wise I don't see many more buyers coming in, though I am on the conservative side in things like that. Your more experienced opinion on the chart and whatnot is more than welcome, I see the trend but I also see the weakness of it. Also SPX has tested 1431 three times and been rejected, with decreasing volume on each attempt, it looks very skittish to me, but hy all means I welcome another opinion.

 

[NoDoji]

Quote from kjones5159:

And actually, it was good timing, this last dribble upwards is very lacking in conviction, headline euphoria.

Once again proving the "there is no bad entry in a strong trend" hypothesis, if you shorted the ES at the time of your post above (price @ 1429.25), there was a max favorable excursion of 7 ticks; if you went long there, there was a max favorable excursion of 12 ticks.

I'm referring strictly to day trading here, not to shorting these levels for a swing trade, counter-trend pullback to support, (although this seems like a very "no man's land" price level at which to do that).

 

[Free Thinker]

Quote from kjones5159:

Also SPX has tested 1431 three times and been rejected, with decreasing volume on each attempt, it looks very skittish to me, but hy all means I welcome another opinion.

it think it boils down to this.
1. the fed has made cash trash. there really is no other place for your money.
2. the economy is getting better despite what the republicans say.
3. there is free money sloshing around everywhere that has to go someplace. people are buying assets.
4. business has never been more profitable than under obama and right now it looks like he stays so no change in policy.

without some kind of "event" to scare the market the strong hands that own the stocks now will not be easily shaken out.

 

[kjones5159]

@ NoDoji:

Exactly, even if it does rise a few points or so, I know it isn't going to have another significant upward leg, the higher it goes the more toppy it will become.

Refer to the John Mauldin essay about sand piles.

My trade time frame is any time from now until the end of October, not a day trade.

 

[kjones5159]

Quote from Free Thinker:

it think it boils down to this.
1. the fed has made cash trash. there really is no other place for your money.
2. the economy is getting better despite what the republicans say.
3. there is free money sloshing around everywhere that has to go someplace. people are buying assets.
4. business has never been more profitable than under obama and right now it looks like he stays so no change in policy.

without some kind of "event" to scare the market the strong hands that own the stocks now will not be easily shaken out.

1. Yes, for the time being. Bond markets are on the mend though.

2. Republicans are saying it isn't getting better in a proper or sustainable way, not that the near term numbers aren't improving.

3. The cheap money that is in fact not free, combined with a continued policy of rediculously low interest rates and thus profit margins for lenders and continued QE has oversaturated the banks and eroded the already low inflation adjusted value of the dollars they are lending at low volume and low margins, due to the negative correlation between profit margin on lending activities and risk. In reality this is a horribly butchered attempt at trickle down economics by an administration that openly discredits trickle down economics.

4. Not sure where you came up with this data, corporate taxes are at very high levels and our per capita GDP has shrank since pre-mortgage bond bubble levels. Of the approximately 50% of lost jobs from the bubble that have been "replaced", about 60% of the added jobs are severe cases of under employment, i.e. college graduates working in restaraunts and retail etc.

As for an event, look at an American and European economic/political calendar for through October, a ripe bunch of opportunities for folly and the ever important "expectations trades".

 

[kjones5159]

For instance even a lighter than expected QE3 could cause disruption, not a crash or anything of such magnitude, but it could definitely shake things up a bit.

 

[logic_man]

Quote from kjones5159:

@ NoDoji:

Exactly, even if it does rise a few points or so, I know it isn't going to have another significant upward leg, the higher it goes the more toppy it will become.

Refer to the John Mauldin essay about sand piles.

My trade time frame is any time from now until the end of October, not a day trade.

"The higher it goes the more toppy it will become" is a tautology, since the market can't top unless it makes a high. It does nothing to help identify the price at which "high" becomes "too high".

If you wanted to short something, Crude and Nat Gas were great shorts today. Both are still moving down. Wouldn't have had to wait until the end of October, either.

Point being, if you have a bias, and you clearly do, find the market that's acting in accordance with that bias and leave the other markets alone. You will save yourself a ton of grief and money in the long run.

 

[atticus]

Quote from kjones5159:

1. Yes, for the time being. Bond markets are on the mend though.

2. Republicans are saying it isn't getting better in a proper or sustainable way, not that the near term numbers aren't improving.

3. The cheap money that is in fact not free, combined with a continued policy of rediculously low interest rates and thus profit margins for lenders and continued QE has oversaturated the banks and eroded the already low inflation adjusted value of the dollars they are lending at low volume and low margins, due to the negative correlation between profit margin on lending activities and risk. In reality this is a horribly butchered attempt at trickle down economics by an administration that openly discredits trickle down economics.

4. Not sure where you came up with this data, corporate taxes are at very high levels and our per capita GDP has shrank since pre-mortgage bond bubble levels. Of the approximately 50% of lost jobs from the bubble that have been "replaced", about 60% of the added jobs are severe cases of under employment, i.e. college graduates working in restaraunts and retail etc.

As for an event, look at an American and European economic/political calendar for through October, a ripe bunch of opportunities for folly and the ever important "expectations trades".

You shorted too early and are pot-committed. That's ok, but who are you trying to convince, yourself or us? If in doubt, get out.

 

[logic_man]

Quote from atticus:

You shorted too early and are pot-committed. That's ok, but who are you trying to convince, yourself or us? If in doubt, get out.

Yep, if you need a multi-paragraph thesis to justify your trade, it's probably not going to work out for you, you might as well call it an "investment", not a "trade".

Nothing against multi-paragraph theses per se, they just don't have a place in trading. Investing, yes, but not trading.