There are no absolutes.

[Risepoint1879]

I'm at the point where I have come across similar setups that go in completely different directions. I've had some days in a row where the setup always went long, only to have other days where those setups went short.

I do believe in finding a general edge, but I see very clearly now that it will always be general, with profit showing up over the course of many samples, but never guaranteed in any single moment, or string of moments.

There is some comfort in realizing this, at least I know what to expect.

 

[DepthTrade]

You can be right when making your analysis, but by the time you enter everything could have changed.

 

[tiddlywinks]

I normally don't post in this type of thread, because in trading everyone is different. All the whats, wheres, whens, whys, and hows, are all specific to the who. Nonetheless...

You would benefit from doing some differentiation study. That is, if you believe everything you need to know is on your screen, then you have missed something. Study your setups one by one, that went long. How are they different from the ones that went short? And vice-versa. This one "went long" and this one "went short" is not differentiation! That is outcome. One or more things differentiates for that outcome to be. If you can not find differences, maybe, just maybe, that setup is really nothing special... not even a general "edge", as edge presumes some advantage.

While it is true there is no guarantee, the fact you take comfort in realizing that, and then elevate to a place where you "know what to expect" is a false truth to me... no guarantee is a far cry from having a better than 50/50 idea of what should happen.

The secret word is.... differentiation.

Good trading to you.

 

[tommcginnis]

The secret word is.... differentiation.

Not following what you're saying, so I can't really *disagree* as such, but your conclusion of "differentiation" I *can* disagree with. If we're going The secret word is... route, I'm going to call "recursion."

Why "recursion"?? If you look through the OP, what he describes are
• Things that work.
• Things that work *sometimes*/mostly.
• Things that work sometimes, but are perhaps entirely in opposition to each other.
... and then trying to find a stable path through that spiky forest.

And he describes his going-forward modus operandi as a looping process -- recursion. Testing, re-testing -- *always* evaluating, always expecting a non-constant outcome, and then (presumably) happily harvesting the best of the time, and ready and flexible enough to swap out, as dictated by results. ("Yay, team!")

Some thoughts, anyway. Time for that second cup o' java.

You would benefit from doing some differentiation study. That is, if you believe everything you need to know is on your screen, then you have missed something. Study your setups one by one, that went long. How are they different from the ones that went short? And vice-versa.

Yeah -- see? I think you were saying what I was saying the whole time.....

 

[murray t turtle]

I'm at the point where I have come across similar setups that go in completely different directions. I've had some days in a row where the setup always went long, only to have other days where those setups went short.

I do believe in finding a general edge, but I see very clearly now that it will always be general, with profit showing up over the course of many samples, but never guaranteed in any single moment, or string of moments.

There is some comfort in realizing this, at least I know what to expect.

%%
Too many whipsaws RP18,777= to small a time frame. Could see a large selloff late MARCH; but SPY is above 200day moving average; its a bull market/ uptrend. Barchart.com rates SPY 96%buy.NOT a prediction; absolutely NOT a prediction.

Actually there are a lot of absolutes;
IF you put all your money in ES shorts/hold+ do that long enough you absolutely will go broke= dont try that @ home, unless you want to absolutely go broke. Most college profs do know much about markets un less his name is Jim Rogers. Good post.,

 

[Arnie]

Those aren't edges in the true sense. Trading a chart pattern at best limits you losses while MAYBE allowing you to ride a winner. The fact that sometimes they work and sometime they don't is just the nature of the beast. Prices in an uptrend tend to not pull back below a recent low. But that doesn't mean they never do.

 

[tiddlywinks]

I'm at the point where I have come across similar setups that go in completely different directions. I've had some days in a row where the setup always went long, only to have other days where those setups went short.

I do believe in finding a general edge, but I see very clearly now that it will always be general, with profit showing up over the course of many samples, but never guaranteed in any single moment, or string of moments.

There is some comfort in realizing this, at least I know what to expect.

When **I** read the OPs post I see helter-skelter. He clearly references a specific grouping of setups... "Some days where THE SETUP went long". "Other days where THOSE SETUPS went short." That leads way to a realization that nothing is guaranteed 100% of the time, including edge.

That realization is then elevated to "at least I know what to expect." And there is the helter-skelter... He DOES NOT KNOW WHAT TO EXPECT when trading "those" setups. They are coin-flips for him. That means he is guessing! I submit, *IF* those setups do have some sort of edge or advantage, he has not found it, or is not using it.

Being real, when a trader enters a position, long or short, there is an "expectation" of what "should" happen. If that expectation fails 50% (or more) of the time, than "those" setups are of dubious value to the trader, as he does not know what to expect: "those" setups do not have advantage or edge, even over time, not without other factors being known. I don't know what to expect is not equivalent to no guarantee. helter-skelter.

 

[murray t turtle]

Those aren't edges in the true sense. Trading a chart pattern at best limits you losses while MAYBE allowing you to ride a winner. The fact that sometimes they work and sometime they don't is just the nature of the beast. Prices in an uptrend tend to not pull back below a recent low. But that doesn't mean they never do.

%% Even though it's a bit mature-they use fractions bid/ask LOL. Market Maker's Edge/Joshua Lukeman book still has some good points, ;like 6 month candle charts. I use 52 week charts more than 6 mo...........,Looks like any could could get rich quick on 5 minute candlecharts-LOL but 52 week charts/trend can be much more profitable.