There are more hawks than doves on the Federal Reserve board

[HeSaidSheSaid]

•Cleveland FED Mester: 12/16/2022 rate will be raised to 5%, and stay there until inflation comes down. She said inflation is still too high.
•NY FED John Williams: 12/16/2022: FED fund rate has to go above inflation rate; he doesn’t see rate cut until 2024
•St Louis FED Jim Bullard: 11/28/2022: "FED need to move more into restrictive territory"; "FED will have to pursue rate hike into 2023"
•Richmond FED Tom Barkin: 11/28/2022 "he in the camp for slowing down the rate hike, but keep raising interest rate to fight high inflation, to him it makes sense to raise interest rate".
•San Francisco FED Mary Dale: 10/1/2022 "Mary Daly says she doesn't expect interest rates to come down next year. She'd raise interest rate and hold it there; She thinks inflation is more persistent than people perceive.
•Atlanta FED Ralph Bostic: 8/26/2022 he's a softy on inflation, he advocated for 50-point rate hike (FED shouldn't contribute to uncertainties"; "marginally restrictive"; he wanted to get to the terminal rate in a orderly way.
•Kansas City FED Estha George: 8/25/2022 she is a strong advocate for streamlining the FED balance sheet and bringing down inflation, and higher interest rate makes sense to her.
•Boston FED Susan Collins: 11/18/2022 she's dovish. Her concern was the more we raise interest rate, the more chance we'd run into recession.

 

[Businessman]

Talk is cheap. Nothing major has broken yet.
When the economy takes a turn for the worse, or some nasty black swan event crashes everything, they will all fold like the spineless animals they are.

 

[Overnight]

Talk is cheap. Nothing major has broken yet.
When the economy takes a turn for the worse, or some nasty black swan event crashes everything, they will all fold like the spineless animals they are.

Nope, I don't believe it. The Fed is Mack with the minigun, and inflation is the jungle, in this proper video representation...

Where the video shows Mack continuing to squeeze the trigger while out of ammo? That will represent the Fed overdoing it.

 

[schizo]

Nope, I don't believe it. The Fed is Mack with the minigun, and inflation is the jungle, in this proper video representation...

Where the video shows Mack continuing to squeeze the trigger while out of ammo? That will represent the Fed overdoing it.

I'm sorry but you and OP are idiots. Well, that's what you two called me when I created the thread entitled "Do we need a runaway inflation before someone like Volcker steps in?" back in October 2021 calling for Powell and his simpletons to raise interest rates. Mind you, this was written well before there was a rampant inflation and before Powell began hiking rates.

I suggest you go back and read what you wrote back then.

Do we need a runaway inflation before someone like Volcker steps in?
https://www.elitetrader.com/et/thre...-before-someone-like-volcker-steps-in.361992/

 

[Overnight]

I'm sorry but you and OP are idiots. Well, that's what you two called me when I created the thread entitled "Do we need a runaway inflation before someone like Volcker steps in?" back in October 2021 calling for Powell and his simpletons to raise interest rates. Mind you, this was written well before there was a rampant inflation and before Powell began hiking rates.

I suggest you go back and read what you wrote back then.

Do we need a runaway inflation before someone like Volcker steps in?
https://www.elitetrader.com/et/thre...-before-someone-like-volcker-steps-in.361992/

The FED was already hiking rates during the golden era of 2017-2019!

I think my post in that thread was referring to that context.

 

[schizo]

The FED was already hiking rates during the golden era of 2017-2019!

I think my post in that thread was referring to that context.

View attachment 301848

Hmm, that's not how I remember. You and OP stated that FED didn't need to raise rates. They've done it in the past and that only forced them to lower it again, so rate hikes are unnecessary.

Why don't ya just admit that you lacked foresight?

(On the other hand, I don't blame you. In my eyes, Powell and his cronies equally lack foresight as well.)

 

[Overnight]

...

(On the other hand, I don't blame you. In my eyes, Powell and his cronies equally lack foresight as well.)

I don't remember either. But do you agree with my assessment now that Fed is Mack with the Minigun, his companions with all the other guns are the Fed presidents, and the jungle is inflation? I do not think they are spinless this time around. This time it is different.

 

[schizo]

I don't remember either. But do you agree with my assessment now that Fed is Mack with the Minigun, his companions with all the other guns are the Fed presidents, and the jungle is inflation? I do not think they are spinless this time around. This time it is different.

All I know is NOTHING IS DIFFERENT THIS TIME.

Did you actually read any news BEFORE Powell started raising rates? He got heckled by those in the academia (eg. notable economists) for not raising interest rates. In another word, he got pressured into raising rates. You don't call that spineless?

You just wait another 6 months and see what the FED will do. If I'm not mistaken, Wall Street will revolt, demanding that he lower the rate. And guess what will happen? That's right, he'll cave in.

(Make sure to bookmark this thread for reference.)

 

[TheDawn]

There are always more hawks than doves when it comes to inflation unless you don't mind having hyperinflation like Germany did after WWI. They don't really have a choice but to be hawks.

 

[Q.E.D.]

•Cleveland FED Mester: 12/16/2022 rate will be raised to 5%, and stay there until inflation comes down. She said inflation is still too high.
•NY FED John Williams: 12/16/2022: FED fund rate has to go above inflation rate; he doesn’t see rate cut until 2024
•St Louis FED Jim Bullard: 11/28/2022: "FED need to move more into restrictive territory"; "FED will have to pursue rate hike into 2023"
•Richmond FED Tom Barkin: 11/28/2022 "he in the camp for slowing down the rate hike, but keep raising interest rate to fight high inflation, to him it makes sense to raise interest rate".
•San Francisco FED Mary Dale: 10/1/2022 "Mary Daly says she doesn't expect interest rates to come down next year. She'd raise interest rate and hold it there; She thinks inflation is more persistent than people perceive.
•Atlanta FED Ralph Bostic: 8/26/2022 he's a softy on inflation, he advocated for 50-point rate hike (FED shouldn't contribute to uncertainties"; "marginally restrictive"; he wanted to get to the terminal rate in a orderly way.
•Kansas City FED Estha George: 8/25/2022 she is a strong advocate for streamlining the FED balance sheet and bringing down inflation, and higher interest rate makes sense to her.
•Boston FED Susan Collins: 11/18/2022 she's dovish. Her concern was the more we raise interest rate, the more chance we'd run into recession.

View attachment 301843

I disagree: they talk tough but their actions are anything but.

They could have immediately raised raised 6-12 months ago. Even now, they try to talk the bond/stock mkt, but still have rates far too low.

More important, if they wanted to tighten financial conditions, with doing less damage to real economy, they could increase margin rates, not only for stocks, but also establish higher rates for stock options, which is where the speculation has been centered past few years. No doubt, that action would get Powell removed quickly..

And of course the easiest thing probably would be to increase the rate of Fed balance sheet. Very few understand that, but would quickly tighten conditions.