That comment was so stupid I'm not even going to argue with you
There are 2 types of traders —-
- Thread starter NY_HOOD
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That comment was so stupid I'm not even going to argue with you
Stupid? Pot-kettle, buckeroo!
(Your post was SOOOOOO stupid... but I didn't want to call you out on that. So, I cased my response in sarcasm.)
I'm fine with you thinking my post was stupid bud. Whatever makes your life suck so bad that you need to troll on a forum makes me feel pity for you
"Troll"? ON IGNORE!!
It doesn’t work this way.
This is a f*cking base rate.
All traders, on any given trade, have the odds staked against them (95/5).
No trader is successful 100% of the time.
No trader is a sucker 100% of the time.
aka. 0.95 * 1 + 0.05 * 1 = 1
Now it’s the “Pro” job to filter out and manage to leverage the 5% and to temper the 95%.
aka. 0.95x + 0.05y = 1
Or 0.95 * 0.05 + 0.05 * 0.95 = 1
Their losses is your gain.
It means that 1 Pro corner 19 suckers.
Or that it takes 19 losses for 1 good trade.
But again it’s not written in stone.
Pros are suckers too. Suckers happen to be Pros.
We just try to get the best and most of it.
Often suckers believe they are in the 5%.
Often pro believe they are in the 95%.
When everyone knows the f*cking base rate...
That’s why PTJ says he plays great defense.
Because he knows he’s a sucker most of the time.
He knows that the odds (95/5) are stacked against him.
This is a f*cking base rate.
All traders, on any given trade, have the odds staked against them (95/5).
No trader is successful 100% of the time.
No trader is a sucker 100% of the time.
aka. 0.95 * 1 + 0.05 * 1 = 1
Now it’s the “Pro” job to filter out and manage to leverage the 5% and to temper the 95%.
aka. 0.95x + 0.05y = 1
Or 0.95 * 0.05 + 0.05 * 0.95 = 1
Their losses is your gain.
It means that 1 Pro corner 19 suckers.
Or that it takes 19 losses for 1 good trade.
But again it’s not written in stone.
Pros are suckers too. Suckers happen to be Pros.
We just try to get the best and most of it.
Often suckers believe they are in the 5%.
Often pro believe they are in the 95%.
When everyone knows the f*cking base rate...
That’s why PTJ says he plays great defense.
Because he knows he’s a sucker most of the time.
He knows that the odds (95/5) are stacked against him.
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Basically,
Suckers are concave.
(Limited upside, Unlimited downside)
Pros are convex.
(Unlimited upside, Limited downside)
They go hands in hands.
Since your payoff is the opposite of theirs.
Suckers accept the unacceptable.
From a real CBOT local. Gary Philips, 2014 http://tradestrongmanagement.blogspot.com/
Back in the day, markets were inefficient and dominated by heavy retail participation.
>>Pricing was a value oriented phenomena that actually reflected the laws of supply and demand.
Technical analysis was more effective back then, because markets were more auto-correlated, and retail participation in the markets contributed to the self-fulfilling prophecy that drives TA.
Historical price patterns were more reliable, and price reacted in predictable ways after this conditionality was presented.
If one could identify these repetitive patterns, then determining path dependency was easy.
The markets are now dominated by commercials, commodity funds, indexers, etfs and hfts.
*****The financialization of traded instruments has resulted in more cross asset correlations which have stripped individual assets of their uniqueness, and price discovery and risk transference functions.******
Over the past decade, institutional management of equity portfolios has increased from 54% to 81% and over the same period, “real institutional trading” has declined from 47% of trading volume to 29%.
There are far fewer market participants today than just ten years ago, managing much larger portfolios across more asset classes, and using much less trading.
(conclusion)
The retail trader has all but disappeared, and traditional traders are predominantly competing against professionals and machines in a relatively illiquid market.
____________________________________
The new problem is that traders still think that technical analysis and retail participation is driving price.
You are trading against very sophisticated machines. Robot trading systems that are using advantages you don't have.
The competition is not fucking around guys. Having an edge in these markets is about understanding both the statement within asterix, and the conclusion presented here.
Back in the day, markets were inefficient and dominated by heavy retail participation.
>>Pricing was a value oriented phenomena that actually reflected the laws of supply and demand.
Technical analysis was more effective back then, because markets were more auto-correlated, and retail participation in the markets contributed to the self-fulfilling prophecy that drives TA.
Historical price patterns were more reliable, and price reacted in predictable ways after this conditionality was presented.
If one could identify these repetitive patterns, then determining path dependency was easy.
The markets are now dominated by commercials, commodity funds, indexers, etfs and hfts.
*****The financialization of traded instruments has resulted in more cross asset correlations which have stripped individual assets of their uniqueness, and price discovery and risk transference functions.******
Over the past decade, institutional management of equity portfolios has increased from 54% to 81% and over the same period, “real institutional trading” has declined from 47% of trading volume to 29%.
There are far fewer market participants today than just ten years ago, managing much larger portfolios across more asset classes, and using much less trading.
(conclusion)
The retail trader has all but disappeared, and traditional traders are predominantly competing against professionals and machines in a relatively illiquid market.
____________________________________
The new problem is that traders still think that technical analysis and retail participation is driving price.
You are trading against very sophisticated machines. Robot trading systems that are using advantages you don't have.
The competition is not fucking around guys. Having an edge in these markets is about understanding both the statement within asterix, and the conclusion presented here.
Negative, NBA quality basketball players are born and through practice they make the cut. Kinda like the 1% of traders ;o)