Theories on bitcoins muted volatility?

G

GlobalMacro90

Anybody have any guesses as to why bitcoins volatility has seemingly fell off a cliff?

I don’t have the numbers in front of me, but looking at a trailing standard deviation number shows the volatility decreasing markedly over the last month or so. Does anybody read this and take any conclusions?

Is this a low volatile period before the next leg down? Does this show that all the big sellers are washed out and there is limited selling pressure left? Does this mean nothing? I’d love to hear your thoughts.
 
I think it would be better to remove the post-pandemic move and then compare things. I imagine this is not unlike the volatility of what came after a run up previously and from what I remember.

In general though, I see no evidence in markets that decreasing volatility is predictive of future direction. Of course, very low volatility will turn into higher volatility at some point because of new information but it says nothing if that will be bullish or bearish information.
 
Looks pretty much like consolidations during prior bears, eg see sept-nov 2018.

The next move is highly likely to be down, unless you believe the money printer will come back on in the next few weeks.
 
BTC leading the tech Nasdaq down, but for past month or so that is no longer the case. No idea why?

I did notice this morning Nasdaq 100 made a new low yesterday for the year in the New 52wk HiLo Difference while the same indicator for S&P500 would have made a new low if not for June 16th reading.
 
it's because many got in it very early and refuse to do anything other than leave the money parked like me. i could care less what it does, i wish i had robbed a bank took the money and bought bitcoin by the time i got out of jail i would have owned the world.

so i think btc is being used as a hedge against the machine, that is why i have it and refuse to do anything with it. as the come late crowd gets bought out by the long term investors it has proven to be the most stable asset there is, this is what is happening.

mark
 
Lots of activity in the BTC market have come from fake Tethers. When free money was available we saw the madness. Now that Paolo has been given a slap on the wrist the market has become a "real" one.
Another mask off for the crypto currency, all of that "adoption" was available when big players could launder their accounts. Now that authorities are looking at it, big players have moved to another lands.

Also look at the crypto blunders like Mickey Sailor, no one believe on BTC any more. The ones that are still in are hoping that their buys at 50k will come back. There are no stops to trigger so volatility fade away.
 
We already had plenty of months with much lower percent range
BTCUSD_2022-10-15_21-21-39.png
 
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