Then and Now

:confused: one needs to absorb the entire economic paradigm before making cyclical assumptions based on snapshot data. the similarites are greater than the differences in the mentioned time frames.

best,

surfer:)
 
No bear market has ever ended with consumer debt at or near new highs. We are right near record highs.

No bear market ends with the same old stocks breaking out. You need new interest in the market. New idea's, new technology and new capital. Value has to be created.

Things always change and they always stay the same.

Also, the economy is not the stock market, you need only look at the 50's and 60's to see this.

Brandon
 
Quote from MondoTrader:

check out this article.

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Why would a trader care about an article? Price met resistance, price fell. That's all that one needs to know.

--Db
 
"True. But then volume dropped off afterward"

I agree, the volume dropped off after the advance. The volume yesterday was less than the volume on Friday. The volume today will be less than yesterday. Its dropping back and so should the volume if I am correct.

I am expecting a pull back of a few hundred more points on the Dow and then a continuation of the rally. "its not dead its resting".
 
I am talking strictly technically here, not fundamentally, the fundamentals are no better now than they were at any time last year and valuations are still high.

 
Quote from MondoTrader:

"True. But then volume dropped off afterward"

I agree, the volume dropped off after the advance. The volume yesterday was less than the volume on Friday. The volume today will be less than yesterday. Its dropping back and so should the volume if I am correct.

I am expecting a pull back of a few hundred more points on the Dow and then a continuation of the rally. "its not dead its resting".
More...

Trade what you see, not what you think.

--Db
 
Quote from sallyboy:

Good info, but one question. I don't follow fundamentals that closely (of course I pay attention because they affect the markets & trading) and have heard p/e numbers bandied about for the S&P 500 of about 15 or so. This contrasts to the table you presented showing a 2003 p/e of about 27. Help me understand this? Maybe one is a trailing p/e and one is a 2003 forecast p/e?


Thanks.
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I believe the then & now chart appeared in this weeks Barrons. The current PE of S&P is around 28, which is around what they listed.

Regarding the overall picture, I believe the big institunional trade of long Crude Oil, long Gold, long Bonds and short Dollar, short stocks was undone last week. I think what has fundamentally changed is the Crude Oil situation, only 9 of the 200+ oil wells in s. Iraq were set on fire and it is reported today that Halliburton (Dick Cheney) is already in there putting out the fires. ( sorry couldn't resist the political comment).
 
I don't read this kind of stuff, but I'm guessing they're using trailing since forward is just a guess and changes almost daily. Forward is used primarily to fuel hope.

--Db
 
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