The wonderful city of New York

kmgilroy89 said:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_and_territories_by_intentional_homicide_rate

11/13 states with the highest murder rates are southern states. MD and IL are the exception. Baltimore, Chicago, and East St. Louis areas are certainly the main reason.
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Ok, the source you provided doesn't have anything on cities, so unless I miss something (and you point it out), I'm going to discount that as a discussion point related to the comparison on NYC and the aforementioned Floridian cities.


kmgilroy89 said:
I looked at the total murder number in the city and the population of the city. NYC (the city only) had 485 murders in 2021. The estimated population is about 8.8 million. That's 5.5/100k which is a clear uptick. We have seen upticks across the country though as the murder rate in the country was 6.9/100k. For NYC, shootings have dropped in 2022, but overall crime is up. We'll see what the totals are at the end of the year. Murder rates tend to be higher in the summer months.
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Thanks. So when you say "NYC (the city only)" you're using a number for population of 8.8M, when the 5 boroughs are roughly double that. Are you just using Manhattan? When you are using cities like Jax or Tampa or Miami, my guess is you're including the entire area, which isn't an apples to apples comparison.

Also, what crime are we speaking of when we say "safer"?
 
SunTrader said:
Thick much?

You were ..... comparing one against the other.

But when a comparison is made where you ummm come up short you say who's was comparing. Fool.
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Read much?

I wasn't comparing anything. Someone said "They have a trolley" and I simply stated that it was safe, efficient and does a great job. Please show me the comment I made that compared the subway to the trolley (which is a total apples to oranges comparison). Please don't show me what you inferred or interpreted, but my actual comment linking the two.
 
Tsing Tao said:
Ok, the source you provided doesn't have anything on cities, so unless I miss something (and you point it out), I'm going to discount that as a discussion point related to the comparison on NYC and the aforementioned Floridian cities.




Thanks. So when you say "NYC (the city only)" you're using a number for population of 8.8M, when the 5 boroughs are roughly double that. Are you just using Manhattan? When you are using cities like Jax or Tampa or Miami, my guess is you're including the entire area, which isn't an apples to apples comparison.

Also, what crime are we speaking of when we say "safer"?
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That's not true. I'm looking at the cities. My data source is from the FBI for 2019 data. If any cities are misrepresented I can't speak to the validity of those data points. The entire population of the city, NYC (all 5 boroughs) is estimated to be roughly 8.8M. The number of murders within the 5 boroughs was reported to be 485 in 2021. If I used Miami-Dade County instead of city of Miami there were 250 murders in 2021 and they have a population of 2.7 million. We are looking at about a 9.3/100k murders for 2021 for that county. I don't have the city data for 2021. FL's murder rate went down in 2021 compared to 2020 while many cities such as NYC/LA saw an uptick, but FL's rate was higher to begin with. Murder went up in 2020 just as it did almost everywhere.
 
The fact is that NYC is one of the safest large cities in the country. It has less murders per capita than the country as a whole. It has a fraction of the murders per capita that Detroit, Baltimore, New Orleans, and St. Louis have which are all over 30/100k which are comparable to El Salvador, Honduras, and Venezuela.
 
kmgilroy89 said:
That's not true. I'm looking at the cities. My data source is from the FBI for 2019 data. If any cities are misrepresented I can't speak to the validity of those data points. The entire population of the city, NYC (all 5 boroughs) is estimated to be roughly 8.8M. The number of murders within the 5 boroughs was reported to be 485 in 2021. If I used Miami-Dade County instead of city of Miami there were 250 murders in 2021 and they have a population of 2.7 million. We are looking at about a 9.3/100k murders for 2021 for that county. I don't have the city data for 2021. FL's murder rate went down in 2021 compared to 2020 while many cities such as NYC/LA saw an uptick, but FL's rate was higher to begin with. Murder went up in 2020 just as it did almost everywhere.
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So this was the first source that came up when I checked on NYC and 5 boroughs.

https://data.cityofnewyork.us/City-Government/NYC-Population-by-Borough/h2bk-zmw6

Can you link to the source you are using for NYC? We first have to agree to the population before we can discuss other numbers (which I am happy to do).

Google also reports the following

The New York metropolitan area is the most populous in the United States, as defined by both the Metropolitan Statistical Area (20.1 million residents in 2020) and the Combined Statistical Area (23.6 million residents in 2020).​

This is what I mean. The NYC area is really difficult to gauge from a start point because of what is judged to be included.
 
Tsing Tao said:
So this was the first source that came up when I checked on NYC and 5 boroughs.

https://data.cityofnewyork.us/City-Government/NYC-Population-by-Borough/h2bk-zmw6

Can you link to the source you are using for NYC? We first have to agree to the population before we can discuss other numbers (which I am happy to do).
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https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/newyorkcitynewyork
So they estimated it dropped to 8.4M during COVID, but mostly returned back to 8.8M. I've never seen anything close to the numbers you have before. If it's somewhere in that range it would have a negligible impact on the stats whether it's 8.4M or 8.8M. Obviously if the population was this large (which I doubt, I think they're making some sort of calculation error perhaps doubling it) that would make NYC even safer as the number of murders was 485 (according to the conservative NY Post).
 
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kmgilroy89 said:
https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/newyorkcitynewyork
So they estimated it dropped to 8.4M during COVID, but mostly returned back to 8.8M. I've never seen anything close to the numbers you have before. If it's somewhere in that range it would have a negligible impact on the stats whether it's 8.4M or 8.8M. Obviously if the population was this large (which I doubt, I think they're making some sort of calculation error perhaps doubling it) that would make NYC even safer as the number of murders was 485 (according to the conservative NY Post).
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It wouldn't make NYC safer because you'd also have to include the crime statistics in the larger geographical error. But now that I know what data set you are using to determine population, even though it is at odds with other sources, I can absolutely accept the census as a source.

Now, please show me the source you are using to get to NYC being safer than Tampa, JAX, Miami and Orlando?
 
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